velocity's partner

[Tim Y]

Anyone who believes that the footing underneath a horse does not play a part in predicting the outcome of a race has not made a serious study of how bias can change rthe overall complexion of a contest COMPLETELY.

Time was, before the reconfiguration and track surface change, that old Keeneland was a front running paradise. Find a horse that got out on top, hugged the rail and could go at least a quick 6 furlongs and you most likely had a VERY GOOD SHOT of hanging on at most of the classic route distances. Look a the match up two years before the resurfacing and see how Bandini and the ridiculous Sinister Minister, both of whom has e/l's and percent medians akin to middle distance horses, AIDED BY THAT BIAS, parlayed that bias into 9 furlong wins, and were, for a very short moment, considered for the LONGER and more demanding energy necessary for that first Saturday in May.

Now two years later, look at the energy distributions on the entire field for the 2007 contest where a tight photo had Dominican over the reigning two year champ and soon to become Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense. Riders didn't change, medications didn't change, weather wasn't radically different nor were trainers brought in from Europe (Carl Nafzger called it the stupidest Grade one race ever).

Over a single season, the only variable in the equation that altered that result was the racing surface. It and IT ALONE dictated a completely different way of looking at that race, which by the way as the synthetic track aged, differed yet again the following season to some degree.

Anyone who follows the dramatic differences of energy profiles at Del Mar or Arlington can vouch for the fact that this is not an isolated phenomenon, WHICH is now, although to a much lesser degree, extant in New York on the Aqueduct inner.

When the track dictates the outcome, the only thing that will save your ROI is being on top of the change AS IT HAPPENS.

[Charlie D]

Dirt and Poly are not the same, so to compare is comparing apples to oranges



Todays Match Up is on Todays surface, at Todays distance


Find the winners using Pace, Speed, Class - The Match Up

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Dirt and Poly are not the same so to compare is comparing apples to oranges


Todays Match Up on Todays surface, at Todays distance decides the outcome


Find the winners using Pace, Speed, Class

There are many variations of the same surface change occurring seasonally (like Aqueduct) where more subtle changes can erode ones understanding of bias just as much as this polarity change.

Those who are not aware of this cogent fact are doomed to be taken in by it.

[Charlie D]

You have decide if Poly run will transfer. If you think it won't then horse is a Pretender in Todays Match Up

The Match Up decides who the TRUE contenders are and who the pretenders are

[Charlie D]

It's same when a horse goes from Fast to Slop

You have to decide if that Fast line will transfer and be usable in todays Match Up

Same scenario appears in opposite direction - do you use the standout slop line or use a not so good Fast line for Todays Match Up

[Charlie D]

Focus on ability of horse - ask questions

What can it do, what can't it do?? ?? does it's PP "Picture" tell us it fits into the 6f Dirt/Poly/Pro-Ride/Turf race we are looking at

It's horse ability v horse abilty that we Match Up to find the TRUE contenders and hopefully the subsequent winner



Don't matter what you use to do this, velocity, raw, Energy, whatever

Just FOCUS on Horse ability and it's suitability in Todays Match Up - Track Bias is over-rated and overplayed because people are not looking properly at the Race Dynamics

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Track Bias is over-rated and overplayed because people are not looking properly at the Race Dynamics

not when it has been a provable entity established by dozens of independent researches all over the North American landscape for years and years.

Until this methodology came along, it was a subjective evaluation before dozens discovered, by themselves , with hard data over multiple race courses over the last ten years.

It is provable and repeatable

[Charlie D]

Understand and interpret properly the why, how (the Race Dynamics) Horse A won race 1, Horse B, won Race 2 and it will help


Just like a computer program, Video replay is a great handicapping tool

[Charlie D]

Did these studies take into account the race shape mentioned by Crist, Ie: races full of hopeless, did these studies take into account race dynamics


Number crunching does not always give a true picture of what, why, how and can be misleading as i tried to explain on Crist on Inner thread

[RichieP]

There are without question days where track biases exist that only software can detect.Talking energy dist reads, e/l graph etc

Very easy to spot when you record keep data that Howard has recommended since the INCEPTION of the advanced methodology programs (Those using TM download); The Early/Late graph and E/Ep and L/Ep reads will point to such biases CLEARLY.

Part of the allure of the Black Magic package is instantly done track profiles that reflect BOTH positional and velocity/energy (%E) modeling on a screen EASILY interpreted.

Folks might consider relaxing ONE way of looking at biases/profiles and keep an open mind examining BOTH positional and velocity/energy results looking for MATCHES that can be exploited (read BET) at the windows for profit.

Quick example of what I mean:
Yesterday at Aqueduct BOTH the 6th and 7th races were without question supposed to come apart and run OTE from a POSITIONAL look at the races. Both contained THREE fast early horses (imo).

Now THOSE results standing by themselves do NOT at least to me show bias. What WOULD show it is if OTHER races on THAT card that we felt were destined to run early also ran OTE. Now a different animal is present.

Same if one uses readouts from software. E/l graph and(imo)the E/ep and L/ep reads will point to patterns that expose biases as they are changing. Tim is right when he says that those who RECOGNIZE and ACT immediately will benefit at the windows.

My 2c