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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

 
 
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Old 03-12-2020, 12:51 PM   #11
barryt
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Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 125
Hi Mitch
Thanx for the useful reply. Yes it is hard to apply and sometimes it does not work but when it does it yields box car prices e.g like #11 in Tam derby.
As an aside the #11 was also TANDEm to the race favourite #7 when the 11 last raced in NOV.so here the adjustment was easy and validated.( but one race doesn’t a season make.)
Another instance where I may use projections is for 2TS. Does Sartin have any recommendation here.
Marc Cramer did lots of study on this which showed an average increase of 15, yes 15, in SR from race 1 to race 2. I cap this at 20 for TPR and distribute it equally between EPR and FFR unless some thing indicates otherwise. I also let the FTS odds be a guide as to wether to credit the 20 or not.
I’d appreciate your, and Bills, comment on this.
Many times there are 3 yrold 2TS coming off long layoffs of 6 months or so then I either give them the grow up points or the 2TS pointsNot both
As an aside would RDSS allow one to make these adjustments?
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