How was your day today? Mine was here were a tad dismal. - Pace and Cap

wallyHeitz · 03-07-2020, 08:42 PM

Or was it? My choices kept running out. Some 4th tier paid chalk. And then I came to Aqu Race 9, March 7, 2020. I don't bet ex's, or tris, but I must take note of the following: My top 3 choices were 3, 2, 6, and respective odds were 23.4, 13.0, and 17.6. And this is how they fared:
3 S @ 23.40
2 P @ 13.0
6 W @ 17.6
$1 X pd 164.50
$ .50 Tri pd 568.7
I'm wondering if it's worth it to wait for double digit odds and box 2 for an exacta, and box 3 for a tri?
At Tam race 11, i did hit a maybe 4th tier winner for 49.2 odds, but I don't know if I would have bet because there were 2 ties on tier 3.

I'm not betting real money yet, I've got to see where the money's at.

rdiam · 03-08-2020, 10:36 AM

Keep records. One day is too small of a sample size. You will find that your top tier horses tend to win at X%, second tier at Y%, third tier at Z%, etc. Use these percentages to create minimum odds criteria for your bets.

A sample template might be to require 5-2 or higher for tier 1, 4-1 or higher for tier 2, 6-1 or higher for tier 3, and 8-1 or higher for tier 4.

Be careful if 3 or more horses qualify for bets, since it means your methodology is missing something other bettors are seeing.

Good luck.

Richard

03-07-2020, 08:42 PM	#1
wallyHeitz AlwNW1X Join Date: Feb 2020 Posts: 15	How was your day today? Mine was here were a tad dismal. Or was it? My choices kept running out. Some 4th tier paid chalk. And then I came to Aqu Race 9, March 7, 2020. I don't bet ex's, or tris, but I must take note of the following: My top 3 choices were 3, 2, 6, and respective odds were 23.4, 13.0, and 17.6. And this is how they fared: 3 S @ 23.40 2 P @ 13.0 6 W @ 17.6 $1 X pd 164.50 $ .50 Tri pd 568.7 I'm wondering if it's worth it to wait for double digit odds and box 2 for an exacta, and box 3 for a tri? At Tam race 11, i did hit a maybe 4th tier winner for 49.2 odds, but I don't know if I would have bet because there were 2 ties on tier 3. I'm not betting real money yet, I've got to see where the money's at.

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03-08-2020, 10:36 AM	#2
rdiam Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 606	Keep records. One day is too small of a sample size. You will find that your top tier horses tend to win at X%, second tier at Y%, third tier at Z%, etc. Use these percentages to create minimum odds criteria for your bets. A sample template might be to require 5-2 or higher for tier 1, 4-1 or higher for tier 2, 6-1 or higher for tier 3, and 8-1 or higher for tier 4. Be careful if 3 or more horses qualify for bets, since it means your methodology is missing something other bettors are seeing. Good luck. Richard