Total Energy Gaps

[vderdak]

Hey All!!!!!!

Has anyone else noted how often in dirt races the #1TE with a good gap above the others wins. I don't see this being the case for turf races but it's very solid on the dirt.

Vince

[Bill V.]

Good observation about a dominant total energy horse.
Have you noticed what prices these winners pay ?

Can you point to some specific examples ?
How much difference do you consider a big gap?
When you notice a big gap in total energy, are you mixing
sprint and route lines ?

How far back do you go when picking lines ?

Do you tend to use a horses highest speed rating
without considering distance, on/off tracks and do you
mix horses with maiden only lines with horses who have won multible
races

All readout patterns we observe are dependent on our ability to pick
pacelines in a consistant manner

[Ted Craven]

Vince,

Funny you should mention that. I was just talking with Bert Mayne the other day who asked me about the same question because he was modelling Finger Lakes (and/or maybe Belmont) and found that a gapped TE1 horse won an inordinate amount of the time - ALSO that some horses who were not within 'X' TE points of the top did not even finish in the money (excepting always those unbalanced matchup scenarios such as a lone visual Early, or double 0.0 F1 - SC Segments screen horse).

He asked if this was actually already tracked somewhere for modelling, and I said it wasn't. But what about if we had a Total Energy % differential column on the Primary screen (like we do the other 7 Primary Factors), so differences of 'X' % from best TE could be tracked and modeled (and/or perhaps simply raw TE points)? Actually there was a screen like this in the old Speculator program, called Perceptor II.

Ted

[Mrbill]

Take a look at the Haskell yesterday...Paynter's total energy was 169.4 while the next horse was 165.4 by my paceline picks. Made a nice win bet and doubled my money.


I have a better paying example from Gulfstream that I'll see if I can dig up....

Mr Bill

[vderdak]

I usually choose recent paces line, I'm not much for going way back unless there are a bunch of turf races recently, I like to choose pacelines near the distance, and if possible same class and surface. I think you get a more accurate picture this way. I also throw out horses taking a big drop in classs(negative class drops), they will have all the numbers but are bad bets, usually false favories.

Most of theTE gaps are short priced odds, not always favorites but do well. An example is from last Sunday at Del Mar, Amazombie had a 2.4 edge over the others, like Mrbill just posted, short odds but Paynter probably should of been 3/5 so a short priced overlay.

[vderdak]

Ted,

I think there is real value in these TE Gap horses. I will be watching them more closely. It would not be bad to have it added to the primary screen.

[ray lopez]

I remember reading in the FollowUp about an intensive review of more than 1000 races by some PIRCO members in regards to Total Energy.I am not sure on the exact %,but they found out that about 84% of the time,the winner is one of the top four in Total Energy.

[vderdak]

I hope this works, this is the race I was talking about