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Old 02-08-2018, 12:48 PM   #1
Jeebs
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Oaklawn Race 5 - Friday 2/9

I handicapped this race and felt that this race was better in winnowing down to the true contenders than the Gulfstream race from Wednesday. Before I chime in, I'll post the entrants with the race conditions.
Note: Post Time is 4:19pm EST:

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Old 02-08-2018, 12:51 PM   #2
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PPs - 1-2-3-4

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Old 02-08-2018, 12:54 PM   #3
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PPs - 5-6-7-8

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Old 02-08-2018, 12:59 PM   #4
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PPs - 9-10-11

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Old 02-09-2018, 10:36 AM   #5
partsnut
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Hi Jeebs,


The (10) is coming off of 142 days but looks like he might be there if he runs his race.
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Old 02-09-2018, 11:15 AM   #6
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Original/FTL guidelines

I will be working the race using both the original Sartin guidelines with FTL's added guidelines for non-contenders and the BLT/C.

Using FTL's recency guideline, we won't consider #'s 2, 9 and 10, as they have been off more than 90 days. Then, using FTL's ML odds guideline, we're not considering #'s 7 and 11, as both are 20-1 ML or greater. These two guidelines cull approximately 46% of the field before diving into a more detailed analysis of the remaining runners.

#1 - Line 1. An unknown factor as it is rising to the $8's for the first time in recent memory. Multiple win and "+" lines vs. OK bred bottom claimers. Usually runs late. Encountered a little bit of trouble 1st time over the OP oval. Trainer has hit at a low strike rate the past two seasons but is overall middle of the road in claiming events.

#3 - NO LINE. Former allowance level winner has declined in recent starts off the freshening. First two outs over the track showed nothing vs. $12.5 albeit NW1-4M condition. Today's race is for NW2-6M, which figures to be tougher despite the drop in price. Horse appears to have changed its running style to a bit more sustained than it has been, so it may not be the same horse that it once was.

#4 - NO LINE. Showed nothing last out off the freshening vs open $10 company over the surface, followed by another line at HAW where it showed nothing. It's most recent "+" race (a win) was vs. IL-bred $10 claimers, which would seem below this level.

#5 - Line 3. With 4 starts within the recency guideline, we have a garden variety of lines at our disposal. I bypassed Lines 1 and 2 because the DED "sprints" are of the two turn variety and that 2nd line down was a route. Line 3 fits on recency, distance, class and form. Slightly concerned that the horse ran a "+" race and was claimed for $15 in that line and is now dropped in for $8, but the trainer is overly aggressive with his claimers, hitting at 30% over multiple seasons, despite the low % meet stat. Owner is also very aggressive in this region's claiming ranks. If this horse is right, it is a winning spot.

#6 - Line 1. The only usable race off the recency guideline and it is a "+ within a zero (+)". Visually a late runner, but tends to use its energy early.

#8 - Line 1. We had two potentially rateable lines off the recency guideline, but its last was over the track and a "(+)" race off the freshening vs. $12.5 NW1-4M. Slight unknown is the fact that the horse has continued a descent down the ladder having been competitive for $25 and $20 and is entered for the $8 today. Respectable trainer with his claimers despite struggles at the current meet.

If my interpretation of the original guidelines with FTL's added guidelines is correct, this is my starting point as far as the "true" contention in the race goes:

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Old 02-09-2018, 11:21 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partsnut View Post
Hi Jeebs,


The (10) is coming off of 142 days but looks like he might be there if he runs his race.
Hi Bill,

I agree somewhat with your assessment of #10, as it blasted an open $8 field before hitting the sidelines. This race would seemingly fit the horse, but I do have my concerns regardless of whether the original or the BLT/C starting points are used. Its history suggests that it shows little off layoffs, and it has several. If that last line was more recent (i.e. this current OP meet), it would stand out and I would have to take more notice. However, it is an unknown whether it is capable of running a big race today off the sidelines based on what I can see.
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Old 02-09-2018, 12:25 PM   #8
Jeebs
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Starting point

As Ted wisely alluded to the other day, the contender/paceline selection is merely a starting point to the handicapping process. While we may narrow our contention down to the horses who are the likeliest to win, it is easy to forget/overlook that the horses whose chances of winning are low % (our non-contenders) are still running in the race. A non-contender can impact the running of a race in many different ways, most notably in the early running.

Based on my contender mix, #'s 5 and 8 are Early/Early presser types. If the race only consisted of the 4 contenders in my mix, the early pace analysis would be cut and dry, as #8 has an F1 advantage over that rival. But it's not that simple. The reality is that there are 7 other horses entered (pre-scratch), which means that others may impact the pace. Judging by #3's recent form cycle, I don't see that one impacting the early running, although it did chase a strong pace in a compact field two starts back. However, #7 (20-1 ML) is an early energy runner and tends to be forwardly placed. Looking at its PoH velocity and E/L differential graph, it is capable of throwing down aggressive early fractions and burning up energy:

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The presence of the #7 horse figures to have an impact on the early pace scenario as both #5 and #8 will either have to outrun #7 to gain the front end, or keep up with #7's potential pace so that one doesn't get an uncontested lead. Likewise, if either #5 and/or #8 outrun the #7, all those runners figure to burn extra reserves to keep to task. Either way, this spells bad news for those horses, as they will have to use a greater amount of energy. This is reflected in the %Med:

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Barring scratches and/or an out of the blue change in race dynamics, this race does not favor the early matchup.

Last edited by Jeebs; 02-09-2018 at 12:28 PM.
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Old 02-09-2018, 12:54 PM   #9
Jeebs
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Looking at OTE

With the likely pace scenario favoring horses that are "OTE" (other than early), I turn my attention to my other set of contenders, #1 and #6, who visually make their moves late:
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In nearly every pace scenario that it faces, #1 tends to run evenly in F2 and F3. This is reflected by it's visual run style, %Med and the E/L differential:
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Now, compare to #6, who tends to run more evenly in F1 and F2. In fact, when matching our contenders together, #6 throws down a superior TT fraction. Based on my initial line selection using the original guidelines, #6 has a high %Med for its run style. However, a deeper look into its PPs reveals that it typically runs its %Med in the P-EP ranges. If I go against the FTL recency guideline and alter my paceline for that one to Line 2 (91 days ago, 24 hours past the guideline), its energy distribution goes south of 69%, an EP line:
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With the line changed on #6, the complexion of our contenders change somewhat:
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Who can match the TT fraction on #6? Nobody. The ability for #6 to make its move at F2 instead of F3 makes it a more reliable closing runner than #1.
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Old 02-09-2018, 01:58 PM   #10
Jeebs
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Blt/c

I had this all typed out and Mr. Fat Hands here (myself) had the meat of his palm on the touchpad and accidently deleted my analysis. So here is the "Reader's Digest" version:

#1 - Line 2, Contender
#2 - Line 7, Non-contender
#3 - Line 2, Non-contender
#4 - Line 3, Non-contender
#5 - Line 4, Contender
#6 - Line 3, Contender
#7 - Line 6, Non-contender
#8 - Line 5, Contender
#9 - Line 5, Contender
#10 - Line 1, Contender
#11 - Line 10, Non-contender

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