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Old 08-24-2010, 02:04 PM   #1
BJennet
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
Experimenting with Total Energy granularity

Recently I returned to look at the records of some of the hypotheticals I was exploring last year when I was studying Total Energy. Let me make it clear to any newer Sartin members, that this has nothing to do with any of the teachings of Doc Sartin, and is merely my own speculation.

One of the interesing patterns I came across, in using the Energy Generator screen, and looking at the full TE number, was how often the #2 TE horse was beating the #1, when the numbers were close. When I checked a sample of races, I found that the #2 was beating the #1 by a 2-1 ratio, when it was within .5 of the #1's TE. Between .5 and .75, they were even, and over .75, the #1 had a large 3-1 edge. The figure that really blew me away, when it was that within .1 of the #1 the #2 won over 70% of the time.

Keep in mind, this is only a sample of 200 races, but I have found that the key characteristics of the Sartin factors repeat within 50 races samples, which is extremely low variance, so this might have more validity than it might first appear. I think it's especially worth considering in light of the fact that the top two TEs win 65% of the races, and even more at some tracks. Just being able to make the right choice a bit more often could provide an edge in races that would appear to offer little profit.

I wish I had more time to investigate this issue right now, but I simply lack the time. I'm posting about it here, in case anyone has any interest in pursuing it themselves. Again, the evidence is tentative, but I think it points in what could be an interesting direction.

Cheers,

B Jennet
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