Arkansas Derby

[Ted Craven]

It is not against any policy here to write that you won a bet, even if you did not post your pick before hand (aka 'redboarding'). When considering whether to make such a post , consider the following:

The Sartin Methodology and PaceandCap has always been about teaching and support for the learning process, including psychological support for finding one's way in a challenging game. That was the stated purpose in every single issue of the Follow Up journal for nearly 25 years. If we are to ban redboarding, we must also remove every Follow Up from the Library and most of the Manuals, to be consistent. If a poster tries to explain their process in coming to a successful (or unsuccessful, for that matter) wager or analysis point and incidentally they also won a great bet - that's what we want more of! I don't want anyone to think they must not post what they learned or would like to share with others because they did not manage to be near their computer before hand, or feel like taking the time to frame their thoughts before hand (maybe you were at the track, and it was 2 minutes to post), or maybe you only visit here from time to time...

Especially in this 'Races of Interest' Forum, we expect more discussion and explanation of what was interesting about the race. In the Selections Forum, just post picks before hand, analyse if you feel like it, or not. Bask in the accolades if your are so fortunate.

What doesn't work is to simply say 'I had the inscrutable winner in a race and I won't necessarily tell you how I got it'. Maybe you get to do that once, then after that we expect details, explanations. Neil S did it right, and congratulations Neil on your hit (hits)!

Anyone is always welcomed to scan their canceled ticket and post the image, or snip a screenshot of their ADW account ticket (suitably edited) and post it as proof of success (though not required).

This is easy to figure out - simple bragadoccio will disappear fairly quickly. Let's move on!


So, Fastest Pace Last Race (FPLR): a clue to the AK Derby. I'll check it out, thanks for the tip Neil.

Ted

[Neil S.]

I loved the Ray Taulbot comments from 1956!!! That and the match up examples which by coincidence are peppered with FPLR horses that won their last race are certainly fueling my anticipation and feeding my patience and discipline to wait for them.
I've noticed that the running styles seem to be mostly earlies or pressers which would make sense as these runners are more a part of the "fastest pace" rather than benefiting from it.
The beauty of racing is that it is a veritable supermarket of opportunity which gives the player the opportunity to shop for races that they are best at based upon their research.

Neil

[lsosa54]

Neil: What are you defining FPLR as? Looks like Taulbot was talking about final time, since it was a different world back then where a lot of the entrants came out of races at similar distances last race. I don't think he was talking about pace, although a lot of times, races with the fastest early calls produce the quickest final times, if the 3F doesn't collapse.

I'm assuming you're talking about 1st and/or 2nd call time? If final time, are you equalizing distances of last race pace lines to come up with the fastest equivalent last race final time?

Thanks. Interesting concept which I have followed at times but not religiously.

[Neil S.]

Believe it or not its as simple as the top TPR coming from a win in the last race using the suggested best of the last 3 method of picking lines. There are some exceptions where I will look elsewhere. Two examples of this are picking the #2 TPR where the top TPR came out of a fast pace but was non-competitive (for example, ran 6th in a field of 7 but the final time was very fast) and a race like the SA Derby where the top TPR won their last race in a GIII on the turf and then was laid off more than 5 months and was now running back in a GI. I used comon sense and took Sidney's Candy who was the #2 TPR who had won his last out. I considered this the top TPR and true FPLR.
The key to me is the fact that the horse won the FPLR. I don't see the same level of success just blanket betting a horse that earns the top TPR in its last race but did not win it. In the case of Line of David in the Arkansas Derby one would not normally use the last line as it was a grass line and the horse had a useable dirt line 3 back. However the greatness of FPLR was shown as the grass line win in the last was the top TPR and produced a $36.60 mutuel. Now I don't expect this to happen regularly as it probably isn't representative of ability over the long haul (or is it?). I need to see this happen a few more times but at 17-1 I won't have to be right that often. Typical winners that come from similar surfaces are paying between $3-12 so that is probably more like it.
I hope this helps but like I said I am heartened by the early successes but I've been doing this a long time and know that a bigger sample is needed to bear all of this out.

Neil

[lsosa54]

Neil: Of your 14 winners, have you noticed any patterns as to dirt vs. turf, claiming vs. non-claiming or maidens vs. winners?

[Neil S.]

The angle has been successful on both dirt and turf and in both sprints and routes. The sampling of maiden winners facing open winners for the first time is very small thus far although there have been a few.
I'm playing AQU, KEE, LS and SA this weekend and hope to get a nice sampling from a wide array of surfaces and class levels.

Neil

[raceman5]

You get a chance this weekend Neil how about posting your plays so we can get an idea of what your doing.

Bob

[Neil S.]

Here's the Saturday plays (before late scratches) with my comments:

Aqueduct - Race 1 #5 Khan of Khans (5-2) -Top TPR and FPLR and appears to be the fastest of the need to leads which could make him the lone early.

In Race 9 watch Strut the Canary as a possible play only if Matchless Orinda scratches.
In Race 10 watch Four Star Bro as a potential play only if Ballast scratches.

As of now just Race 1

Keeneland- Race 6 #7 Excelente (3-1)- Top TPR and FPLR.

In Race 2 watch Joharmony as a possible play only if Lucky Lass scratches.

As of now just Race 6

Lone Star Park- Race 1 #6 D'Oro Deelites (7-5) -tied for top TPR and FPLR. Price is short so probably worth only watching, but for purposes of the study counts as a play.
Race 7 #9 Ti Township (7-2)-although the #2 TPR the top runner Charles Edwin is winless in 10 tries at LS with 8 seconds and finished last in his last start and is returning from a 3 month layoff. Ti seems suited to this spot and ran the FPLR after everyone else with a powerful local score.

In Race 10 watch Jo's Thunder only if Seymour Naevus scratches.

As of now two plays (Race 1 and 7)

Santa Anita- Race 1 #2 Warring Heart (9-5)- top TPR and FPLR. Price is short though.
Race 8 #2 Party with Brando (8-1) top TPR and FPLR. Best price of the day
Race 9 #5 Canonize (7-2)- top TPR and FPLR off of big dirt win but now switches to downhill course. A solid consistent runner in great form which will pay nicely because of the surface switch.

In Race 4 watch Tuscan Evening only if Cat by the Tale scratches. I wouldn't take 4-5 or lower anyway so it won't bother me.

In Race 6 watch Valkyrie Missile only if Afleet Ruler scratches.

As of now three plays (Races 1,8,9)

All of the runners won their last race which is a requirement for me. Good skill to me and happy hunting!!

Neil