Kentucky Downs - Sept 6

[rdiam]

Race 9 1M 70Y Turf
Purse: $250000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
5 Next Shares Drayden Van Dyke 7.80 4.80 3.80
7 Siem Riep James Graham 6.80 4.60
10 Parlor Brian J. Hernandez, Jr. 4.80
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 5/7 39.50
$1 Trifecta 5/7/10 204.70
$1 Superfecta 5/7/10/6 1672.20
$1 Double 6/5 22.90
$1 Pick 3 8/6/3 21.70
$1 Pick 3 8/6/5 177.90
Scratched: 3 Dimension (GB), 8 All Right, 9 Conquest Panthera, 11 Undrafted

[rdiam]

KD r10:

[rdiam]

Race 10 1 5/16M Turf
Purse: $130000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
9 Kallio Brian J. Hernandez, Jr. 9.40 4.80 3.20
11 Coexistence Adam Beschizza 4.00 3.00
2 Gentle Ruler Julien R. Leparoux 2.60
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 9/11 18.50
$1 Trifecta 9/11/2 57.20
$1 Superfecta 9/11/2/4 487.10
$1 Pentafecta 9/11/2/4/3 2828.10
$1 Double 5/9 29.80
$1 Pick 3 6/5/9 187.10
$1 Pick 4 8/6/3,5,8,9,11/9 816.40
$1 Pick 5 12/8/6/3,5,8,9,11/9 5548.30
$1 Pick 5 12/8/6/3,5,8,9,11/9 78.00
Scratched: 1A Rushingirl, 12 Twin Channel, 13 Faith in Cathy

[rdiam]

Conclusion for today:

Let the machine pick the pace lines. Sure, it will miss a few. Instead, spend the time sorting the runners into win contenders, in-the-money (secondary) contenders, and non-contenders. Use the Rx+ screen. Spend the remaining time structuring the bet. If you do it right, you should have the winner in your win contender selections 90% of the time. The whole process should take 7 minutes or less. If you are spending more than 7 minutes to handicap and bet a race, start to finish, you are over-thinking it, given the RDSS software are your disposal.

As an aside, note how often the win and show horse are included in the win contender selection, but the place horse not so much. This is in accordance with the fact that the horse second most likely to win only places around 25% of the time. The other 75% of the time, you need to use other factors (see Sartin's exacta manual). Solution: start playing more horizontal wagers. The pick 4 and pick 5 at KD are particularly attractive as they have lowered the takeout to 14%. Or start small, with daily doubles, move to pick 3s, etc. Just be aware that the pools in DD and P3s these days can be quite small, so a decent size bet can significantly affect the payouts. Hope this helps.

Richard

[Lt1]

Nice job today Richard and a great closing statement. Hopefully members will take time to read and digest it.
Tim

[mick]

Richard, I was following your posts. Good job with identifying the winners in your contenders. I agree with you (and our friend Tim) that Ted has built a killer piece of software on Doc Sartin's foundation. I hope you can join me and Don at Keeneland in October.

I had a good day myself. My picks won 7 of 10 races and of the 4 that I bet, I won 3 of them. I love KD's big fields. You can dutch a lot of horses and still hit a price.

[mick]

Today's results:

[Lt1]

Nice job Mick. Keep it going my friend.
Tim

[Bill V.]

Thanks for all your work here. I agree with your statements
As you can see from some of my Race of Interest post.
After many years of using Validator and RDSS. I get through my paceline selections very fast. I eliminate most of the field just from the first look at the PP's and Early Late graphs

It takes me a lot longer to post my thoughts and races then it takes me to just do each race,

Thanks to you and to Mick for a great day.

I bet 4 races dutching my top 4 RX+ horses at PID and KD

I made a profit in 3 of them, It would have been 4 but I messed up
the dutch amounts

Thanks Again for adding to the pace and cap tool bag of how to win

Bill

[mick]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Nice job Mick. Keep it going my friend.
Tim

Thank you, Tim. It doesn't happen all the time but I'm sure grateful when it does.