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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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04-07-2010, 05:00 PM | #1 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Arkansas Derby
Entries
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
04-10-2010, 07:53 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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pps
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
04-10-2010, 07:55 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
04-10-2010, 09:45 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Have to run out for most of the day but here's my take.
If the track plays favorable to the early types, then Super has a fairly large EP segment advantage and may well carry that to the wire. It's somewhat hard to determine specifically how the routes have been playing over the last week or so, but yesterday's 2 routes were won from last and 3rd from last positionally at the 1/4 call. If it plays that way, I think Super's late deficiencies won't let him scoot away, esp. with the other early types in here. If that's the case, then Dublin looks good and he is strong on both the EXDC and SP screen. Problem is I doubt we get 7-2. If we make the call that the SP style may be the winning model style, and there is also plenty of front running styles in this race, then I may give a look to Pulsion. He's 3rd off the layoff and was a fighting pacesetter in the Fla Derby, showing improved early form through the stretch. This is a horse who in his 2 good poly routes, was in the rear part of the field early. Maybe Biancone was trying to build endurance in that race. I still don't know if he's fast enough but if I use his Norfolk poly line, he's a got a shot at the wire. If you're playing the exacta, don't disregard Northern & Uh Oh. Yesterday, I thought Uh Oh may have a shot to win at a big price, but unless he runs his Iroquois one turn mile style, I'm not optimistic. If you decide to take a shot either with Uh Oh or Pulsion, I personally wouldn't take less than 7-1. Good luck to all. Since this is not my home circuit, my bet amounts will be on the light side. |
04-10-2010, 10:01 AM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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For Smarty
Got to give Smarty"s OP race a shot
Looks like 1 and 3 for me Good Skill to everyone |
04-10-2010, 10:59 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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hi guys..
at 9 fur and with speed from the 5,6 and dont know what the 8 & 9 is going to do ...dont think the 1 will have that easy trip up front.. liking the 2 and 4 #2...after a little rest came back last 2 like a monster...had to run closer to pace last and maybe compromised his chances with additional speed today maybe can do it from more comfortable position. #4...after big maiden win by 11 he ran credibly, first against graded company and then on poly..can improve
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04-10-2010, 12:21 PM | #7 |
Former member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,136
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I think #3 is the best horse in the race. Problem is that he almost never gets a good trip. Typically, he ends up doing most of the running in his races, in other words, he get a worse trip than the winner. Maybe today he'll get a better ride and handle these, like he's supposed to.
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04-10-2010, 05:29 PM | #8 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Super looks best E, but looks vulnerable to horses like Nobles Promise.
NP will be of no appeal as a win bet on betfair and i can't bet Exotics on OP races, so this is fwiw. 3 on Top of 1 and 2 Exactas 3, 1,2 Tru 3,2,1 Tri All the best.
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
04-10-2010, 05:57 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
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Well, folks, Super and Dublin were there but to be beaten gate to wire by a NW1 turf winner who had never run on the dirt is a tough beat. Read 'em and weep and move on. Wow.
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04-10-2010, 06:16 PM | #10 |
Former member
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,136
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I constantly read about how unfair and unpredictable POLY is but this is a perfect example of how unfair dirt can be. They went 1-2 around the track and the winner came back again after being passed in the lane. Nothing was able to run off the pace. This was UGLY racing.
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