Longshot at MNR

[rmath]

Bill, Ted or anyone, How do you explain a horse like this winning .

[chuckg]

Line 4 and 5 show that she can get the lead at 22.9 to 23.1

Line 9 and 10 show that she can at least finish 4th against a 23 first fraction.

Slowest stretch call of those 4 was 1:01.3

What kind of pace did she have to face today?

Which line showed up as her best percepter?

Her 9th has the highest SR.

Her last thee lines were all on off tracks, two gds and a my. All with way faster paces than she can compete.

Where does she rank among the other contenders in BL/BL if you skip her first three lines?

[rmath]

Chuckg , even if you go back and use this horses better line it still will not rank in the top 5.
And if you do use a line from way back for this horse then there are a couple of other horses that should also get this benefit also.
rmath

[Bill V.]

Thats why they call it gambling

My good friend FTL recently wrote to me about a longshot winner
and he showed me that the trick is when these longshots win
you can win by not betting into the race


I doubt I will get to that point were I can be as good as him
with the conditions and form so If I did go into this race
here are my lines

First I will get rid of any horse not in the top 5 TPR



Horse 1
Horse 2 No Line 30/1 Ml
Horse 3
Horse 4 No Line 30/1 ML
Horse 5
Horse 6 No recent plus races No line
Horse 7 non contender no good recent plus races
Horse 8
Horse 9
Horse 10 No recent Plus races

Below we have my top 5 TPR horse

Horse 1 Line 1 recent plus race (show) 3 for 40 lifetime 20/1 ML
Horse 3 Line 1 Recent plus race (show)
Horse 5 Line 2 Recent Plus race (Place)
Horse 8 Linn 1 only recnt plus or plus within a zero race but on a gd track
Horse 9 Line 1

[alydar_ David]

I bet #5 to win. I bet offshore so as not to affect the odds. I do that with all the night/small handle tracks. Even a $20 win bet can change the payoff.

After the race I did a post mortem and came the conclusion that this was one of those races Dick Mitchell talked about. He said, and I paraphrase, 15% of all races are unexplainable. I shrugged it off.

Speaking of Mountaineer, I was quite content with #4 Setas Sassy Shoes' payoff in the second race. She paid $15 which I though was a nice overlay.

And in the seventh $12.00 for #3 Winkatdawat seemed quite generous.

Both of those were very easy to get, I thought. I bet the #3 and #4 in the second and singled Winkatdawat in the seventh.

[Bill V.]

Great post Alydar David

Its funny how people live and die to win race 9
When the winnes like race 4 and 7 are right there

Good for you
Bill

[rmath]

Bill, I agree with both you and Alydar.
This horse was not a contender.
I only posted this horse to see what others might have to say about it.
If you read Follow UP 37, pages 59 thru 66 paying special attention to page 63, you will see what Doc has to say about using the best line in a horses PPs,
especially when the horse has not shown a decent performance in its last 3 or 4 races.

I had both of the winners David mentioned along with 1 other decent paying horse from 5 playable races.

Was not implying in any way that race 9 was gettable.
rmath

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thats why they call it gambling

My good friend FTL recently wrote to me about a longshot winner
and he showed me that the trick is when these longshots win
you can win by not betting into the race

Actually, this is NOT what I said.

THIS is what I said.

Picking the right race to play is just as important as picking the right contenders and right pacelines.

It seems most people just attack a race without ever reading the conditions for the race, like every race is just a matter of picking the fastest horse based on speed rating or some final time measurement from a previous race. It is not.

Recently a contestant choose a race to play that should have been avoided. The result was a loss, a loss that was fairly predictable. Let's take a look.

The 5th race at Santa Anita was a 5.5 furlong sprint over the track's dirt surface. The race was for 3 year old and up fillies and mares with a claiming price of $8,000. It was an "OPEN" race. Now what that means is this. ANY filly or mare age 3 or older could be entered in this race as long as the horse's connections were willing to lose the horse through the claiming box for the claiming price stated, $8,000. What else does that mean? It means that a horse that just won a GRADE 1 race could be entered in this race. That's not likely for obvious reasons, but that doesn't mean that horse would be precluded from entering the race. It also means that a maiden, a lifetime NON-WINNER could be entered in this race. So there are the extremes, but also understand that everything in between those two extremes is eligible. Horses with 1 win or 20 wins, it wouldn't matter. With that in mind, you are now ready to start looking at the horses in the race.

There were 11 horses entered.
4 of the horses were 1 time winners. In other words they have beat nothing but maidens (non- winners).
4 of the horses were two time winners.
3 were 4 or 5 time winners.
At this point you can already draw the conclusion that this is not a very good field of horses.

I'm not going to review every race for every horse, but if we look at just the 5 most recent races for each horse, that's 55 total races, you can only find 7 wins among the entire field. We can only find 1 race where one of the horses ran 2nd and just 3 races where one of the horses ran 3rd. A bad field.

You commented on the winner that it didn't like DMR or FPX. That could very well be true, however, in a closer look, perhaps it didn't like running against winners, since most of it's good races were against maidens. Since we don't know the make up of the fields it ran against in non-maiden races, perhaps they were better than today's field. What we do know is this. Today's field isn't much better than a field of maidens. In other words, the race is wide open...with very little in the way of solid information from which to reach a determination as to which horse(s) have the best chance of winning.

This is a good race TO PASS!

Evaluating the race to see if there are solid contenders that have good recent lines denoting good form where you can rely, to whatever extent possible, on the horses performing today is a good starting point.

[Bill V.]

Thanks FTL

I suppose i should have quoted your letter
but I'm glad you reposted it here and hopefully folks will pay attention

I hope my efforts of showing the some winners past performances
Is also helping folks with their contender selections

FTL Here is the winner of Race 6 yesterday from Parx

was Lisa the right girl ?

I was not sure about excusing the last line
Line 2 is a plus line

I pased the race because of this horse
was this the right call ?

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I pased the race because of this horse
was this the right call ?

Why would you PASS the race because of this horse going off at 8.5/1??