How do you decide on which P4 to play?

[cdax]

As far as contest play goes, what's your criteria for picking early or late pick 4?

I've been tossing a few ideas around in my head on which to pick.

Probably the best is just choose the one you fell most confident with. Which for me usually ends up being the lowest paying (if I get it right, which isn't often). But what if your not real confident in either?

1) - Would you cap the p4 with the least amount of starters to get a better shot at cashing (with lower payout)?

2) - After capping both, do you play the ticket with the fewest amount of contenders in order to hit it multiple times?

3) - One I'm looking at now, do you cap both and total up the lowest price horse in each leg to get an idea (if your favorites hit) which will pay more?

4) - Just convenience, only have enough time to get it in.

Just wondering. No matter what you HAVE to have the winners within your contenders.

Chris

[pktruckdriver]

Great question Chris, I been wondering the same thing, and I am horrible so far with the Pick 4 contest, yet it seems a lot of the time the winner has almost always in the top 5 BL/BL, and or VDC.

Of course I use RDSS2, not the older Sartin programs, which is doing me well so far with the other contest, but this contest I am not doing well at all, like today I tried something different and still did not come close

What did I do, I just used the Newpace Numbers, and of course must choose 1 race where I use only 3 horses, and still miss by a mile.

As far as choosing the Early or Late I look for value in 2 -3 legs and with a strong Horse in 1 leg to key off, yet this has done me little in winning, Now BuffaloXP should comment here , as he is doing very well in the contest, congrats to him.

Patrick

[rmath]

Hope you guys do not mind if I give my thoughts on playing the Pic 4.
I start by looking to see if there are any Mdn races and then I look to see how many first time starters there are. Usually both pic 4s have a Mdn race, but some only have one or two first time starters. Next I run each race : I mark the NP horses and then I choose my pacelines and eliminate the contenders down to 5 using the Primary Line Scores.
My records show that 90% of all the winners at Aqu are in my top 5 Vdc and NP horses.
Next I mark out the horses that are ranked in both catagories , with any luck this will get me down to three main contenders in most races and 75 to *80% of the winners.
Next I see what the cost will be for combining my key horses.
For me if I only have 3 in each leg the # of combinations is 81 and then I play this ticket twice.
I next look at any horse that ranks 1 or 2 VDC but not a NP contender and build smaller tickets with the key horses that are in the top 2 VDC & NP.
i only play one race in each of these tickets. I have to be right about 3 of 4 races.
My records at Aqu so far are: 120 races run, 114 winners 95% in my first batch of contenders. 92 of the 114 were dual qualifiers. 11 singles were top 2 VDC.so in my playable horses I had 103 winners or .858, and if you use these horses you have a little over 50% chance of hitting the Pic4.
Using this combination of plays has been pretty productive so far.
I hope this helps anyone who might want to check this out.
Not every one will get the same Vdc horses as I get because we all choose our pacelines a little differently, but the NP horses should be the same.
By the way there were only 3 NP horses that were not Vdc contenders that won.
rmath

[cdax]

Thanks both of you.

My picks are running a lot like Patrick's, usually getting 3 of 4. I'm confident I will hit at least once more, hopefully a large one.

rmath, I was hoping to get a response from you as you had touched on your strategy in another post. I thank you for laying out your method and congratulate you on securing a very nice lead in the contest.

Good luck/skill to all.

Chris

[rmath]

Thanks.
I am always glad to share with others. This weekend I was 3 for 4 all 3 days.
It is my belief that when you share with others they may come up with other improvements and share them with everyone. By doing this all of us can improve our handicapping. For me this is what Doc Sartin & Pace and Cap is all about.
When we share with others the good Lord always blesses us many times over!
Rmath

[buffaloxp]

i am new with rdss, less than 2 month, and only have rdss ver0.99 , i still lean how to pick a pace line, on the past i use brisnet SPD rating, so in rdss i pick SR NUM, all i do is ever horse i pick 2 to 3 best ADJ SR NUM, Than go to BL/BL, keep the top 5 horse, go back to ADJ SR NUM, add last 3 SR num, the top total num is my 1 st pick, the 2nd totat num is my 2 nd pick ---to 5 pick . just lucky i use this way hit 3 time, and few time 3 out of 4, thank to ted, and RDSS, i not have to use paper and pen, special thank to ted, email me alot of info to use RDSS
raymond

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Great question Chris, I been wondering the same thing, and I am horrible so far with the Pick 4 contest, yet it seems a lot of the time the winner has almost always in the top 5 BL/BL, and or VDC.

Of course I use RDSS2, not the older Sartin programs, which is doing me well so far with the other contest, but this contest I am not doing well at all, like today I tried something different and still did not come close

What did I do, I just used the Newpace Numbers, and of course must choose 1 race where I use only 3 horses, and still miss by a mile.

As far as choosing the Early or Late I look for value in 2 -3 legs and with a strong Horse in 1 leg to key off, yet this has done me little in winning, Now BuffaloXP should comment here , as he is doing very well in the contest, congrats to him.

Patrick

[Ted Craven]

Just a shout out and congratulations to Chris D (cdax) who shot almost to the top of the Aqueduct Pick 4 contest on Saturday. Also to rmath, still in 3rd position and buffaloxp, in 6th.

Also, Patrick, great hit Sunday!

Great work guys! Proof that (in this contest, at least) one good hit can rocket you back into the game.

Ted

[rmath]

Congratulations on your big hit.
I knew that some one would hit a big one and pass me up sooner or later.
I am glad it was another paceandcap player.
I am still trying to regain the lead but I wish you well.
Keep up the good work.
rmath

[cdax]

Thanks,

I was praying to hit at least one more time, but didn't think it was gonna be that ticket or that big. I was busy all day that day and didn't get back til the 6th race. A very nice surprise.

I would be pleased just to keep up with rmath for this contest.

Good luck everyone.

Chris

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations to Chris D (cdax) and to Dick M (rmath), who continue to sit 2nd and 3rd in the Aqueduct Pick4 Contest as of Feb 5. It takes a whole lot of consistency - and a bit of luck - to be where you are!

And - Ray K (buffaloxp) still sits within good striking distance, at 8th position.

Congratulations gentlemen on your excellent showing this far, and best of luck to everyone else who is slogging away in this marathon event! Really, just one nice hit away from the lofty heights.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s....php?p=1229841

Ted