Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Hat Check - How Can We Help You? > Matchup Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-01-2019, 06:00 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,082
Marathon Method 2019 Derby

The fastest prep race occurred in the Sunland Derby, a grade 3 event. The mile time was 134.60 (in fifths) and Cutting Humor ran 5th - 4th -3rd to the stretch call being 1.75 - 1.50 -0 lengths behind at those calls. His 6F to finish split was 36.75. A slower pace would help him a bit; but I might defer on him being as it was only a grade 3 - but don't forget Mine that Bird came from there to win at boxcars.

Other than that the best prep mile time was the one Tacitus ran against - 135.40. His position and lengths back were 6-7-3; 10-8-2. his 6f to finish split was 37.13.

The pace of the race looks to be 47+/111+ and Maximum Security went wire to wire running a 136.0 and finished in 36.00. Omaha Beach and Game Winner can run with him and I would slightly favor Game Winner over Omaha.

Max, Game Winner and Cutting Humor are my win horses. OB, Cutting Humor and Long Range Toddy (136.40 - pos. 5-5-4; LB 1.75-1.75-1.0) are my place horses; and the deep closer is Code of Honor (136.80 - pos. 5-3-2, LB 8.50-4.0 - 0.5)

Tacitus coming from a 4-4-1, 8.5 - 7.5 - 0 run could get a piece as well.

Those are my facts, my bet awaits a few more days reflection and the race odds.

Good luck
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2019, 09:21 PM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 1,388
Good luck Bill. I like Tacitus and Maximum Security of yours the best. But this one tough race.


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2019, 12:09 PM   #3
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,082
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
The fastest prep race occurred in the Sunland Derby, a grade 3 event. The mile time was 134.60 (in fifths) and Cutting Humor ran 5th - 4th -3rd to the stretch call being 1.75 - 1.50 -0 lengths behind at those calls. His 6F to finish split was 36.75. A slower pace would help him a bit; but I might defer on him being as it was only a grade 3 - but don't forget Mine that Bird came from there to win at boxcars.

Other than that the best prep mile time was the one Tacitus ran against - 135.40. His position and lengths back were 6-7-3; 10-8-2. his 6f to finish split was 37.13.

The pace of the race looks to be 47+/111+ and Maximum Security went wire to wire running a 136.0 and finished in 36.00. Omaha Beach and Game Winner can run with him and I would slightly favor Game Winner over Omaha.

Max, Game Winner and Cutting Humor are my win horses. OB, Cutting Humor and Long Range Toddy (136.40 - pos. 5-5-4; LB 1.75-1.75-1.0) are my place horses; and the deep closer is Code of Honor (136.80 - pos. 5-3-2, LB 8.50-4.0 - 0.5)

Tacitus coming from a 4-4-1, 8.5 - 7.5 - 0 run could get a piece as well.

Those are my facts, my bet awaits a few more days reflection and the race odds.

Good luck
The Sunland mile time of 134.6 is fast and I expect some downward adjustment of that time due to its probably the fastest track that any entrant ran on prior to the Derby. That being said, the fastest mile by a Derby horse on the lead was 136.00. Cutting Humor closely pressed the Sunland splits as referenced above so allowing a one second adjustment (arbitrary) he should be near today's pace.

I think there is a price to be had, so Maximum Security, Game winner and Cutting Humor are my best bets.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2019, 08:32 PM   #4
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 9,253
Bill

Sorry about Maximum
The numbers were correct so don't change
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2019, 01:07 AM   #5
Lefty
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 185
Strange

The stewards didn't see a thing so 2nd place Jockey objected. Then winner is placed 17th. Where were the stewards the first time around? Usually when a jockey objection is alloed, the 1st and 2nd places are reversed. But winner was placed 17th and stewards didn't see a thing first ime around.
Strangest DQ I've ever seen.
Lefty is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Marathon method on the Derby (2018) The Pook Matchup Discussion 4 05-05-2018 08:38 PM
Marathon method on the Derby The Pook Matchup Discussion 0 05-06-2016 07:54 PM
Marathon Method update for Derby and other long races Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 25 05-04-2015 08:27 PM
Way early Derby musings - marathon method Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 18 05-04-2014 11:54 AM
Kentucky Derby using Marathon Method - Best Mile times Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 6 05-03-2013 09:33 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:06 PM.