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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-28-2014, 09:30 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 259
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Opinions - Teaching Discussions
Bill,
I am not questioning what worked then still works now, nor am I drawing a line in the sand. This game now more than at anytime is about ROI because of takeout. My point was just that, the example I saw I said pass and it took me 20 seconds to come to that conclusion. I think or I should say practice everyday if the race does not have the potential of value in what I believe is value then I'm not in.
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"Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall" |
01-29-2014, 01:13 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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"each investment...always must offer...more than just the winner"
Lt1 and I exchanged comments on this very topic yesterday and this morning, fueled by results from a race on the card (R7@SHRP) we both were watching. The "bottom line" for both of our perspectives is that the process for ranking win contenders is a process in it's own right, but only one part of the overall decision making process for actually making an "investment".
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Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com |
01-29-2014, 06:06 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 259
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Appy,
Field size has always determined random odds. Field of 10- maximum 9-1, there is always a winner. then I base the field by their run styles and set my odds line. So now I have the choice going off at 1/1, but if the public has handicapped this wrong and hasn't labelled each horse for the match up correctly I might have a value bet. The match up is IMO the most important part of the process, wether or not you can determine a odds line. But I will always fall back to the "Master Himself" "it's a Dang horse race. It's all there in front of you there is no easy connect the dots and your right. I read and re-read the Hat's explanations and the first edition of Brohammer's Master Pace, because as Ted explained many might be short in the understanding of this vital part of the process. Forty years plus and I am still learning. To all I don't intend to be a cog and disrupt these lessons, they are vital, and I would never disrespect FTL or Dave Edwards or Bill Varone I just think that some effort or mention should be mentioned in the value of the investment and not solely on the winner. Despite what many might think, this game is not predictable and IMO we can only by flexibility look towards value within the race. I grew up in an environment which dictated value was of importance and yet I feel chastised because I bring this to the forefront and yet it has been directed that I am wrong to do so. In all due respect I would appreciate the respect I give this forum as I respect the views and teachings of this forum, there is not a better place to learn.
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"Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall" |
02-06-2014, 11:24 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Trotman,
There are some pretty sensitive egos that post here. That's why I rarely bother anymore. But your plea for respect in this last post kind of got to me. I don't know if these people are your friends or what but if they can't see the value you are trying to convey, why worry? Their loss!! Your method of handicapping and creating an odds line helps you overcome the track take. That is all that matters. In fact, that is the great thing about this endeavor, other people's opinions don't matter. As long as you are making a few dollars or more and feel good about it. |
02-06-2014, 12:24 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Trotman I don't see why yours or any ones contributions would not be well received. If we are to have teaching threads then all of the members are entitled to share their approaches with the group.
Tim |
02-06-2014, 12:54 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Flint Hills in Kansas, formerly from Montana
Posts: 334
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Perspective
While I agree there is some merit to what you said Mark, I will respectfully disagree with your perspective.
I was told, and read, over and over again I could not succeed in horse racing by considering my horses as anything other than disposable inventory. That prompted me to redefine success. My objective became to utilize horse racing as a means to give my horses an opportunity to earn a living to provide for their entire natural life. Early in life I adopted a "horse first" mode of thinking, always doing whatever is best for the horse. IMO that is a fundamental difference between a horseman as compared to a person with horses. It is also the difference of holding your horse in higher esteem than you do for money. My training methods are based on friendship, trust, and respect. Money is a temporary satisfaction, while the satisfaction of friendship, trust, and respect are forever.
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Serious fun. www.cappersoverlay.com |
02-06-2014, 01:43 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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This area
Hi some of the post in the Pace Line and Contenders thread were moved to this thread. I want to keep the teaching threads on one topic.
--------- 6 |
02-06-2014, 02:43 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Plenty of room for different views
Apologies first as I don't know the full background to these posts.
Firstly, I don't think I've been disrespected, but also to be honest, I also don't think I'm a teaching member of these boards either. I'm still very much on the journey of learning, as much about myself as the Methodology. On the issue of value, it is interesting to note that the BL/BL screen has odds based on the selected pace lines. Trotman, I think if you are able to price a race up by using the Match-Up based on what presumably is empirical data from the length of time you've been doing it then more power to you. It all comes back to pattern recognition in the end. If the price available on a pattern repeating itself is higher then the probability of it occurring then it would be almost rude not to get involved. Value just for value's sake, well that's another thing completely. I think it can be valuable to explore different ideas under the umbrella of the Methodology. Discussion between us as a group may lead to something being posted by someone that could clarify something for someone else in five years time that they didn't even know they didn't know....if that makes sense?! |
08-14-2014, 09:39 AM | #9 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2010
Location: norwood, ma
Posts: 29
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I looking for some input of my handicapping process. If there changes I should make with my process, please stated it.
My Handicapping Process as follows: I look at the conditions of the race, as claiming 20,000 or Alw NW1. I will not look at any race if for Maidens, Maiden special weight, two year olds and three year olds. 1. I check the morning line on all horses, and then mark the horses, whose Morning line is over 20 to 1, and list the horses. 2. Next I check on the entry screen - last race/week column. Any horse that has not run in the last 90 days are marked as potential non-contenders. 2A. I next step after all this is check the workout form for those horses that have not raced in the last 90 days. Eliminate the entry or keep them as non-contenders. 3. Next step I look at APV % and CR ratings. Any horse whose APV % is below 50 % is considered as non-contender. 4. Next I look at csr ranking, and mark all horse's whose rankings is above 5 as possible non-contender. I mark up my racing form or sheet as secondary contenders with a headings of APV, DSLR, no Form - (1) odds over 20 to 1, and (2) poor CSR ranking, and then list those entries. |
08-14-2014, 10:27 AM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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sounds great IF
Hello
Your outline would work very well at some tracks. You will also lose some big longshots at other tracks. Horses are running and trainers are training at specific tracks and there are differences. If you only wager at a few tracks and your outline works there . You have found a sound approach. Don't let the inevitable "Here is a 20/1 horse off 337 days at Crabtree Downs " change your mind if you are winning at your tracks . It won and paid $174.50 !!! Look at your records and see at your track there also was 1 singular similar winner in the last 150 races ! If your database is very complete you can also tell that not only does this type winner happen very infrequently There are very few trainers who enter this type of horse in any class level at you track So why chase or hope to get lucky and hit this type of horse? Play the percentages, Learn to master the middle of the road type mutual and you will do very well . |
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