Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-05-2016, 05:12 AM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Last Line First

This is in response to a PM
What a nice professional man he is, I have great respect for his desire for
clarity in a Pace and Cap friendly way .

Step 1 in Phase 1 is to ALWAYS run the last line for every horse in the race.
The winner will (almost) always come from one of these horses .
This does not mean we should ONLY look at the last line, Its just a important
step .

I bet this race today I will post my twin spires bets for Friday
for some reason when I bet off my phone with Twinspires mobile app
it takes a few days to show up on the detail page online.

Here is race 9 from Turfway 3/4/16

The first thing I did was set RDSS2 to select the last line for all the horses
now note the top 5 TPR horses .

Name:  last line.PNG
Views: 622
Size:  43.2 KB

Now I have a basic idea of a few things I don't want to get too involved in them yet , I will as time goes on ,but basically I'm looking at the top 5 TPR
horses and the best EPR ratings

Now that I have my Top 5 TPR last line horses I will start selecting my pace lines.
I will post them but this time I am not going to comment on why I picked
my lines I will say my fulcrum was the 1 7 tandem about a 45.3

here are the horses, my lines are checked.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 05:15 AM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
horse

1 2 3 4

Name:  Horse1_.PNG
Views: 556
Size:  87.7 KB

Name:  Horse 2.PNG
Views: 612
Size:  83.8 KB

Name:  Horse 3.PNG
Views: 571
Size:  78.9 KB

Name:  Horse 4.PNG
Views: 570
Size:  84.9 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 05:19 AM   #3
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
horse

5 6 7 8 9

Name:  Horse 5.PNG
Views: 529
Size:  84.3 KB

Name:  Cappy.PNG
Views: 565
Size:  83.2 KB

Name:  Horse 7.PNG
Views: 542
Size:  81.4 KB

Name:  Horse 8.PNG
Views: 504
Size:  81.1 KB

Name:  Horse 9.PNG
Views: 506
Size:  86.4 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 05:23 AM   #4
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Do you see it ?

I will wait a little before I post up the Phase 1 readouts
and result chart

The winner Is one of the top 5 off the last line,
I was able to use a better line One that match the fulcrum pace,
It was a + paceline within 90 days

Good Skilll
Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 10:43 AM   #5
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
Bill,

Do you ever apply the fulcrum using the EPR numbers as Pizzolla
suggests in Pace Makes the Race?

Jeff
shoeless is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 12:01 PM   #6
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
Hi Bill, this was a nice score. To look at the actual running line from the last race you would not expect it to rank as high as it did in TPR. The public was fooled. I didn't use the last line for that horse but it pointed in the right direction also.

Pook
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 12:26 PM   #7
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Hello Jeff
Yes of course. Let's say for example my fulcrum is a 94 epr I verify that the fulcrum horse has run competitively
against a 94 , that is the line is not atypical .
Now when I look at horse with competitive races with eprs like a 84 that means if theY run a 84 today they will probaby be too far back . So to move closer to the pace of 94 they most likely will run a lower lpr.
Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 12:48 PM   #8
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Hi Pook ,
Yes this is why I have to disagree with Doc.
And the people who say that phase 1 will only get low priced horses . Or $6 horses
In your match up contest race the top 5 off the last line ar 4 8 1 3 2 and some of those lines look terrible, the only horses with a plus paceline are the 4 which was it's mcs 40 win line , and the 8 who is rising in class of a loss. The 5 and 6 show (+) last lines but have low LPS because they both were coming off layoffs and today they drop in class
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 01:56 PM   #9
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Great Score Bill!!!

Only contender left with a late energy distribution...

TPR

Name:  Snap 2016-03-05 at 10.53.28.png
Views: 532
Size:  15.1 KB

Result chart

Name:  Snap 2016-03-05 at 10.54.18.png
Views: 559
Size:  86.5 KB
lone speed is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2016, 09:25 PM   #10
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
Bill,

Very nice hit

Jeff
shoeless is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Using RDSS with a sample race in my learning (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 2) NeedForSpeed RDSS 5 06-13-2013 02:28 PM
Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25 - TM 113 Race Class RichieP Matchup Discussion 19 11-26-2011 04:22 PM
Major vs. Minor tracks Bill P General Discussion 109 04-05-2010 03:23 PM
Paceline selection AAcoolguy General Discussion 44 07-27-2008 08:42 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:37 PM.