Thursday 10/6 Belmont Turf - TM 104 Race Class - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-04-2011, 05:51 PM

Here is the 7th from Belmont on Thursday, a wide open turf affair. Hopefully the weather cooperates and the race stays on the lawn (if someone could update raceday with conditions and scratches it would be MOST appreciated as I will be out in the field working

)

Very best of luck/skill to ALL who jump in and match em up!

RichieP · 10-04-2011, 05:53 PM

,.,

RichieP · 10-04-2011, 05:55 PM

..

Bill Lyster · 10-05-2011, 11:44 AM

Not a lot of pace here and the horses most likely to lead are listed as MTO, the 11-13.

The 1 and 8 could be pace factors but are slow horses. Lots of failure at this level here, so I am left with the tandem of the 2 and 10 along with the 5 and 9.

The race record of the 5 is suspect to me. first two races then a big layoff, two races, one at 44 days, the next at 42 days and now a 67 day delay. This horse has run 442, 762 and 453 and its last race was against the best pace of these runners. Has only beat NW of 1 lifetime and that could be anything.

The 2 and 10 were in grade 2 with the 2 beating the 10 decisively. The 9 won its second start and did well in its first NW1X and looks to run positionally just behind the 9.

2 and 9 to win (before scratches) with the 5 in an exacta 2nd spot.

Good luck

Bill Lyster · 10-06-2011, 12:06 PM

Just the three MTO's 11-13 have been scratched.

PeteC · 10-06-2011, 12:27 PM

Thanks for the scratch update Bill...Unfortunately for me I see the #2 as the best of the e/p group and the 5 as the best of the ote gorup, the top 2 ML favorites...You'll should get a price though if the 9 comes in for you.

We'll see how it turns out...

mikesal57 · 10-06-2011, 12:39 PM

6-9 for me

alydar_ David · 10-06-2011, 01:40 PM

You picked a humdinger of a race, Richie. Nice. :>)

I'll take #5 Hyper to win and place.

And I'll key him with 4,6,1 and 2.

Incidentally, I know what you mean about the layoffs in #5's past performances, Bill. He's what we call a "campaign horse." I generally don't like to bet those horses, however I'll overlook it this time as Chad Brown is 75% adding bandages with an ROI of $7.15. I'm assuming I'll get 3-1 which is okay for this.

tfm · 10-06-2011, 03:20 PM

Tough Race. Certainly not one that I'd typically play, as there doesn't appear to be either a stickout or value.

I don't like #5 --- ESPECIALLY in the win slot -- this horse got a once-a-career good trip last out. He could be 2nd or 3rd but he's not winning.

The logical horse is #2, Humble and Hungry. He could win but he won't be value.
The ones I like are:
#10, Benergy: ran by a bunch of horses breaking its maiden; then ran 2nd to Banned next out. This horse has to be able to put in a representative run here. I'll bet this one to win but I need more (closer to 10:1, ideally) than the morning line.
#1A, Bakhoor: The SPEED. JUICER trainer doesn't hurt either. Might steal this.

Bill V. · 10-06-2011, 04:08 PM

Please help with any comments about my line selection

Been working on it lets see if I show any improvement

Pacelines

Race is for Alw Non winners 1 other than
Maiden, Claiming Starter or Restricted or
NW 2 races life

1. 7th try at this condition Jockey feel off last
race W/o 7 days ago line 2 fast POR Ill use it
speed 83
1A. only
has its maiden win last line
seems best of last three 42 days with a w/o
line 1 speed 72
2. ML fav Last line Speed 78
3. Last line was a yielding track with
very slow pace Line 2 was 10 furlongs and
slow pace Line 3 was ok but slow pace
and speed 69 no line Low apv layoff
4. Ill use the last line for this 4 time winner
finally won on the lead last line but
will have to run faster early against
the 1A 2 and 3 last line based on running
style when in form
5. Last line Speed rating 84 2 wins in 5 races
89 apv 3.42 class
6. Last race yielding 10 F out 2nd good 9.out
Line 3 for this 4 time winner speed 81 Pace
fits the earlies
APV 103
7. Show 3 wins but 8 fails against ALNW1x
in 10 races shown last race is 72 Speed
slow pace NL
8. last line 1 for 17 39 APV 76 speed rating
pace fits
9. Both last and line 2 are good 101 APV
speed and pace ? line 2 fits better
1 for 3 lifetime but this is for NW1X
so MS win is ok correct Line 2
10. Been running against graded stakes horses
last 3 Grade 2 last two Line 3 fits against
these. Line 2 was 10 furlongs
1/7 life 153 APV

Contenders
1
5
6
2
9

from these I will chop the 1

final 4 shows
2 5 9
win bets 5 and 9

Thanks
Bill

10-04-2011, 05:55 PM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	.. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-06-2011, 12:39 PM	#7
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	6-9 for me __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

10-06-2011, 01:40 PM	#8
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	You picked a humdinger of a race, Richie. Nice. :>) I'll take #5 Hyper to win and place. And I'll key him with 4,6,1 and 2. Incidentally, I know what you mean about the layoffs in #5's past performances, Bill. He's what we call a "campaign horse." I generally don't like to bet those horses, however I'll overlook it this time as Chad Brown is 75% adding bandages with an ROI of $7.15. I'm assuming I'll get 3-1 which is okay for this. Last edited by alydar_ David; 10-06-2011 at 01:55 PM. Reason: Had the scratches for the wrong race.

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10-04-2011, 05:51 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Thursday 10/6 Belmont Turf - TM 104 Race Class Here is the 7th from Belmont on Thursday, a wide open turf affair. Hopefully the weather cooperates and the race stays on the lawn (if someone could update raceday with conditions and scratches it would be MOST appreciated as I will be out in the field working ) Very best of luck/skill to ALL who jump in and match em up! Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-04-2011, 05:53 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	,., Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-05-2011, 11:44 AM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Not a lot of pace here and the horses most likely to lead are listed as MTO, the 11-13. The 1 and 8 could be pace factors but are slow horses. Lots of failure at this level here, so I am left with the tandem of the 2 and 10 along with the 5 and 9. The race record of the 5 is suspect to me. first two races then a big layoff, two races, one at 44 days, the next at 42 days and now a 67 day delay. This horse has run 442, 762 and 453 and its last race was against the best pace of these runners. Has only beat NW of 1 lifetime and that could be anything. The 2 and 10 were in grade 2 with the 2 beating the 10 decisively. The 9 won its second start and did well in its first NW1X and looks to run positionally just behind the 9. 2 and 9 to win (before scratches) with the 5 in an exacta 2nd spot. Good luck

10-06-2011, 12:06 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Scratch 11-12-13 Just the three MTO's 11-13 have been scratched.

10-06-2011, 12:27 PM	#6
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Thanks for the scratch update Bill...Unfortunately for me I see the #2 as the best of the e/p group and the 5 as the best of the ote gorup, the top 2 ML favorites...You'll should get a price though if the 9 comes in for you. We'll see how it turns out...

10-06-2011, 03:20 PM	#9
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Tough Race. Certainly not one that I'd typically play, as there doesn't appear to be either a stickout or value. I don't like #5 --- ESPECIALLY in the win slot -- this horse got a once-a-career good trip last out. He could be 2nd or 3rd but he's not winning. The logical horse is #2, Humble and Hungry. He could win but he won't be value. The ones I like are: #10, Benergy: ran by a bunch of horses breaking its maiden; then ran 2nd to Banned next out. This horse has to be able to put in a representative run here. I'll bet this one to win but I need more (closer to 10:1, ideally) than the morning line. #1A, Bakhoor: The SPEED. JUICER trainer doesn't hurt either. Might steal this.

10-06-2011, 04:08 PM	#10
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Lines Please help with any comments about my line selection Been working on it lets see if I show any improvement Pacelines Race is for Alw Non winners 1 other than Maiden, Claiming Starter or Restricted or NW 2 races life 1. 7th try at this condition Jockey feel off last race W/o 7 days ago line 2 fast POR Ill use it speed 83 1A. only has its maiden win last line seems best of last three 42 days with a w/o line 1 speed 72 2. ML fav Last line Speed 78 3. Last line was a yielding track with very slow pace Line 2 was 10 furlongs and slow pace Line 3 was ok but slow pace and speed 69 no line Low apv layoff 4. Ill use the last line for this 4 time winner finally won on the lead last line but will have to run faster early against the 1A 2 and 3 last line based on running style when in form 5. Last line Speed rating 84 2 wins in 5 races 89 apv 3.42 class 6. Last race yielding 10 F out 2nd good 9.out Line 3 for this 4 time winner speed 81 Pace fits the earlies APV 103 7. Show 3 wins but 8 fails against ALNW1x in 10 races shown last race is 72 Speed slow pace NL 8. last line 1 for 17 39 APV 76 speed rating pace fits 9. Both last and line 2 are good 101 APV speed and pace ? line 2 fits better 1 for 3 lifetime but this is for NW1X so MS win is ok correct Line 2 10. Been running against graded stakes horses last 3 Grade 2 last two Line 3 fits against these. Line 2 was 10 furlongs 1/7 life 153 APV Contenders 1 5 6 2 9 from these I will chop the 1 final 4 shows 2 5 9 win bets 5 and 9 Thanks Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 10-06-2011 at 04:10 PM.