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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 02-23-2016, 01:50 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Review of TP race 1 2/21/16

"Bill The winner had an 11 point advantage on TPR It won !"
This email was about Race 1 from Turfway on Sunday 2/21/16

The is a race i was interested in. I didn't bet, I was traveling home to San Diego. But I wanted to see ho i would have worked it.

I just worked the race Here is what I made out.

The first thing I did was look at the conditions and he race rating it was an 85
I had RDSS2 auto select the last line so I could check the fulcrum
I decided the 8 would be the fulcrum 90.5

Next I selected my running styles
Horse 1 EP
Horse 2 EP
Horse 3 P
Horse 4 EP
Horse 5 E7
Horse 6 Ugly
Horse 7 EP
Horse 8 P

Lots of early pace.
The 8 2 and 7 is a tandem

Next I will post the PP's
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Old 02-23-2016, 02:31 PM   #2
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My lines and readouts and thinking

Horse 1 2 3 4 5

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Old 02-23-2016, 02:35 PM   #3
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Horse 6 7 8

last 3

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Old 02-23-2016, 02:40 PM   #4
Bill V.
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Match and TPR screen

here is my Phase 1 TPR screen readouts

Look it over i will post the results in a little while

Thanks
Bill V.

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Old 02-23-2016, 04:52 PM   #5
Bill V.
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Phase 1

The 7 off line 2 earns a very strong TPR
My other "could win" fulcrum horse # 8 places
Looks like a couple of horses scratched but this to is an advantage for me
when I use Phase 1. When a horse or horses scratch , it does not change
the readouts of the horses still in the race. so the 7 and 8 and 5 are still the top 3 TPR

The result chart
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Old 02-23-2016, 05:31 PM   #6
lone speed
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Bill V…

Nice work up of this claiming race. Looks like they ran to the Phase 1 rankings…

It seems that you looked at the match-up but mainly, through the Phase 1 energy distribution numbers exclusively.

Looking at #5 Aziperform; even though this horse is ranked #2 on Total Energy, one can see clearly that it does not hold any “early” pace advantage as there are several in the race with a 92.5 EPR rating on Phase 1. If it were to win the early matchup in this race; it is quite “deficient” in LPR compared to #7 Miss Omeara or #8 Queen of Spring.

Thanks for the work up of this race..
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Old 02-23-2016, 08:35 PM   #7
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Bill,

Nice call on that race and like your presentation as well
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Old 02-23-2016, 08:41 PM   #8
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Bill,

Wasn't something said in one of the FU'S by putting in 5.5 furlong
lines in a longer race that they will come up with better late numbers
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Old 02-24-2016, 06:37 PM   #9
Bill V.
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Ls

Quote:
Originally Posted by lone speed View Post
Bill V…

Nice work up of this claiming race. Looks like they ran to the Phase 1 rankings…

It seems that you looked at the match-up but mainly, through the Phase 1 energy distribution numbers exclusively.

Looking at #5 Aziperform; even though this horse is ranked #2 on Total Energy, one can see clearly that it does not hold any “early” pace advantage as there are several in the race with a 92.5 EPR rating on Phase 1. If it were to win the early matchup in this race; it is quite “deficient” in LPR compared to #7 Miss Omeara or #8 Queen of Spring.

Thanks for the work up of this race..
Hi Lonespeed

Thanks, I kind of look at it a blending of 4 concepts
1. My interpretation of the Hat Check 5 steps
2. Form factors, more importantly looking for form defects that will
effect the match up. Especially early pace horses,
3. The pace line selection outline from the Pace Line Manual
4. The Phase 1 methodology,
a. Running the last line on every horse in the race
b. Finding the fulcrum horse
c. eliminating non competitive horses by matching their
EP, LP,and TPR energy expenditures relative to the other horses
in the race, and also against it's total pp shown history.
d. looking for horses with advantages on EP,LP, and TPR

GS
Bill
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Old 02-25-2016, 12:25 AM   #10
lone speed
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Post from Tipton A Gilbert

Bill,
Thanks for sharing your "modus oparandi"

Now if I can somehow optimize the best procedures from your method and those of Tipton A Gilbert.

Quote:
Procedure


Basics: Do not play Maiden races, Turf races, Two year old races or Stakes and Handicap races. This leaves Claiming and Allowance races for past winners three years old and older, run on dirt or poly surface.

Scratch horses with ML odds of 15 or more in the longer races; usually 12 numbered entrants, and those with ML odds of 10 or more in the shorter races; usually 8 numbered entrants or less.

Approach:

1. Begin with the first remaining horse and go through all the remaining field before making any adjustments.

2. Click on POH and choose the best 2nd call time (2C) for each horse from it's last 2 races only. If both times are equal, or very close, use the one with the best true speed (TS) rating. Use the proper distance and surface when available.

3. Check each horse and make adjustments as required to agree with the following:
A. If 2nd line was a Maiden race use the last race regardless of it's 2C value. Maiden winners off their last line should be going down in Class. If going up, and it has several races before it's win,
eliminate.
B. If the horse has not run in 60 days or more, use the last line regardless of it's 2C value. Comeback horses seldom improve off of their last line.

4. Click on Analysis, then on Adjusted, then on BL|BL.
A. Check the adjusted Speed Ratings (SR) showing and if any appears to be too high in comparison to
the others, click on that horse and check the adjusted SRs to see if it's previous ratings support the
rating chosen. If not supported, change line 2 to line 1. If line 1 was previously chosen, eliminate
this horse.
B. Return to BL|BL and eliminate any horse whose SR is 8 points or more lower than the highest now shown.
C. Eliminate any comeback horse and any maiden winners ranked 3rd of worse.

5. Click on Energy and eliminate any horse whose value is 4 whole points or more below the highest.

6. Click on Adjusted, then POH, and eliminate any horse whose value is 2 whole points below the highest.

7. Click on Adjusted then POR and reduce the field to 3 contenders, eliminating the lowest TS value first then the next lowest and so on. If 2 or more are tied go to BL\BL and eliminate the lowest of those tied using the BL\BL rankings.

Notes:

1. When the TS ranking order under POR is different than the TS ranking order under BL\BL, be careful. Be especially careful when POR\TS #1 is ranked 3rd on BL\BL. This can indicate a day when nothing seems to work properly.

2. After checking late scratches, rework any race where one of the 3 BL\BL horses was scratched.

3. In sprint races, 2nd call beaten lengths under Segments can sometimes be helpful in eliminating POR\TS ties 3 or more are tied for best value.
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