Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-28-2016, 04:07 AM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Blink of an eye

This is a work up of today's match up challenge race
It was a 7.5 turf race ( 2 turns )
I worked the race but I just could not get a read / feel
The 8 was a true Early with far higher tpr than the field , however why did I go to line 4?
I will post the pp's when I get a break later
But I wanted to ask also why is horse 6's
LPR colored with a very low 80 rating ?

Looking at my screen my contenders were the 1 4 7 and 8,
I liked the 3 and it should have won ! I feel bad for the guys in the contest who had the 3.
My other problem was horse 7. It was off 320 days
I should have tossed it , this would have moved the 3 up.
In the end the 1 horse sat in perfect position, pressing the 6 and 8. The 8 packed it in with a clear lead in the stretch.
Just like the pp,s said has happened in recent races.
The 1 was 6/5 the race came down to the blink of an eye
finish with the top 4 all with a few feet of each other .
So passing this one was a safe call
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2016, 05:47 PM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Screens

This is my Phase 1 TPR screen

I have separated the Early, Pressers, and Sustained

Name:  Turf.JPG
Views: 432
Size:  111.1 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2016, 11:14 PM   #3
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Top

Sorry for the slow additions to my post
I am having one of those days were everything is going right .

When I get to the point I see my top Tpr horse
Is a Early .. that is # 8. 2 problems with #8
1 it's a need the lead Early and the 6 has a better
EP rating , also the 1 is a EP so the 8 has to out break
two horses to its inside.
I went to line 4 . This is a mistake on my part.
The reason I went to line 4 was line was it was the same distance .
But line 1 and 2 show the 8 stopping on its own.
That 102 LPR looks suspicious My reasoning was the 8 would get the lead again today but have to go about 88
EP which would probably bring it's LPR back under 100
I figured about a 178 or so TPR
The 6 is to weak in LPR. I an not sure why that 80 lpr is shaded ?
So looking at the Early horses the 8 Is my best early
Next will be the pressers.
Bill

Name:  Horse 8.JPG
Views: 431
Size:  211.2 KB

Last edited by Bill V.; 02-28-2016 at 11:22 PM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2016, 11:39 PM   #4
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Pressers

Here are the Pressers
The 4 has the best TPR The 4 as also my fulcrum horse
It has a big advantage over the 1 and 7 But Its still much lower than the 8.
If I was going to bet I would have made the 4 my first win bet but I was
not sold completely,Why?
Because of it only having a 90 LPR Ifigured position wise it would be right there but it had better improve its LPR to win today.
The 7 had a lot of back class . I went to line 5 because In today's race
the 7 was coming off a 320 day layoff Line 5 was also after a long layoff
When I saw that line 5 was so low on TPR I eliminated horse 7
But the back class made the 7 still a slight question in my mind.
The 1 is solid but at 6/5 I wanted it to rate higher so i eliminated the
winner.

Name:  Press.JPG
Views: 388
Size:  30.0 KB

Next will be the Sustained

Last edited by Bill V.; 02-28-2016 at 11:45 PM.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2016, 11:51 PM   #5
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Sustained

Now I am left with the sustained
The 5 is my top TPR of this group
but its earns it off a strong LPR only
The 5 only has 1 turf paceline and this is the pace line i used
it made a move but still finished 12 back, I eliminated all the sustained
horses because i figured they all would be too far back because of their
low EPR ratings

Name:  SUS.JPG
Views: 401
Size:  28.4 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 12:00 AM   #6
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Results

I named this Blink of an Eye
Doc writes about how often races come down to the blink of an eye at the finish line. This happened here The top 4 were all right there The 1 beat the 3 by a nose.

My analysis was the 8 and 4

But with all the questions I passed
anyway I hope this helped get an idea of my thoughts


Name:  Results.JPG
Views: 399
Size:  104.1 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 07:54 AM   #7
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
Thanks for the write up about this race Bill. Well done. As it turns out passing was the correct decision here and I wish I had done it. Mike made a small profit but I too felt sorry for the guys on the 3 because it was good work to be on him.

I was on the 7 and of course in retrospect should not have been. I then would have been on the 3 (to no avail). (The Hat) as far as I have read never considered layoffs. (For The Lead) tells me it is foolish to be on horses over 120 days off. So.......you try to make the best decision you can at the time.

Anyways good pass decision. And thanks for the post mortem.

Pook

Last edited by The Pook; 02-29-2016 at 08:11 AM.
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 10:26 AM   #8
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
I am so glad you bring up FTL . I will be posting up his guidelines and pace line selection examples often.
I saw you had the 7 l only got off because of the poor readouts following the last layoff ,
Anyway wishing you success in the next one.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-29-2016, 07:59 PM   #9
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,148
Bill,

Nice workup of the race

Jeff
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Minds Eye Pat C. Matchup Discussion 7 05-21-2012 07:24 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:28 AM.