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Old 12-17-2011, 06:55 AM   #1
mrhug
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Contender/paceline guidelines

I am re-reading and going back and reading some of the older follow ups. There is many times that Doc says you cannot win consistently unless you follow my contender/paceline guidelines precisely. Does anyone know if these are stated in one of the follow ups or one of the manuals.
Thanks
Melvin
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Old 12-17-2011, 09:39 AM   #2
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Mel...this is from the "Paceline" Manual.....
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Old 12-17-2011, 09:47 AM   #3
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Thanks Mike. It is also mentioned a lot to use the best of the last 3 races. How is that used along with these guidelines?


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Mel...this is from the "Paceline" Manual.....
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:21 AM   #4
Bill V.
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Hi Melvin

What Mike put up is the right way Good Skill to you if you chose this method
Follow ups 70- 88 as well as any seminar work book from the post follow up
70 era are filled with examples of using the best of the last three SPEED RATINGS
nobody is right or wrong whichever way you choose

The key is to do what is best for you

Doc would burn and destroy the paceline manual if he felt best of the last three was
better than what Mike posted,But He used Best of the last three and his guidelines moved away from what is "RIGHT" to what worked for most people who knew not as much as guys like Mike or FTL. Please test for your self which ever way is best for you
Guys like Mike and FTL may approach how they wager, the amount they wager and how often they can wager very different than you
So you need to find what works best for you

GS
Bill

Last edited by Bill V.; 12-22-2011 at 08:24 AM.
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Old 12-22-2011, 08:29 AM   #5
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Melvin Just to add anything in the Sartin Library including the paceline manual
was approved by Doc to be viewed by Paceandcap members only
So do what will make you a winner

Merry Christmas
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Old 12-22-2011, 02:46 PM   #6
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Thanks Bill
The follow ups can at times be very confusing along with being very informative. Along with reading the follow ups, I am doing a lot of testing and agree with what you are saying. You have to do what works best for you. However, I guess what I was looking for was a good foundation that I could use as a starting point. The follow ups and manuals have all the information, but it is spread out everywhere and changes the more you read. The number one thing I am struggling with is when to pass a race. Thanks again for all the help you give.
Merry Christmas to you and yours.
Melvin

Last edited by mrhug; 12-22-2011 at 03:03 PM.
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Old 12-22-2011, 03:58 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by mrhug View Post
Thanks Bill
The number one thing I am struggling with is when to pass a race. Thanks again for all the help you give.

Melvin
Always pass a race when you are confused. I tend to pass races with FTS' or numerous layoff horses and races where the favorite is the top horse on my read out. It is a very individual thing and important to keep records regarding where your hits and misses are.

Jim
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Old 12-24-2011, 08:39 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by mrhug View Post
Thanks Mike. It is also mentioned a lot to use the best of the last 3 races. How is that used along with these guidelines?
They are two different approaches.

First, you got a lot of good responses here.

Let me add to those responses, the following.

If you are looking for a foundation, then I would start at the beginning, not in the middle. MIKESAL57 showed you "a part" of the Paceline Manual and you should read that manual, in particular, pages 17, 18 and 19, as well as the other information there.

Before I go any further, let me address the idea of "best of last 3" as I understand it. First of all, it is NOT "best of last 3", it is "best of last 3 DISTANCE AND SURFACE!". I see many people choosing pace lines that are from route races when today's race is a sprint and sprint lines when today's race is a route. If you follow the actual "best of last 3 dist/surf" guidelines, that should not happen. I just wanted to clear that up and I will address this concept in more detail later.

As to selecting pace lines as shown in the manual, the idea here, as you can see from MIKESAL57's post, is to use the last line "unless" there is a "valid" reason to go back. The obvious question is, "go back how far?". The answer is "ONE RACE". You're probably also asking yourself, "unless WHAT?" In MIKESAL57's post there are some guidelines there to help answer that question, but let me go into more detail.
Obviously, if a horse ran dead last around the track in its’ last race, you don’t use it.
You also don’t use the last race if the horse didn’t demonstrate some type of “form”.
Ok, so let’s start.
Take any horse and start with its' last race.
Did the horse finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd?
Did the horse show good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls, even if it faded?
Did the horse show a good "middle move" by being within two lengths at the second call, even if it faded?
These are all "good races".
All these types of races "show form" and “condition”.
IF the horse’s last race shows any of these attributes, the last race is your line.

Now, suppose the horse DOESN'T show any of these attributes in its' last race?
Now you have to make a decision.
Now the idea of a "valid" excuse comes into play.
Read MIKESAL57's post to get an idea of "some" of the "valid" reasons to go back ONE LINE.
IF one of those "valid" reasons are present, then go to line 2 and follow the same procedure.

I will caution you here that this procedure does not go on for all ten lines in the horse's PP's. In general, if you don't find a line in the last two races (perhaps 3 races under extreme circumstances), then that horse doesn't get a line and is not a contender. (at least for the "win" position, which is all I evaluate)

One more thing, personally, I don't give horses a line if they haven't raced in the last 90 days and I don't use lines that are more than 90 days old.
The idea is to use a line that represents the horse's "current" form and condition.
A horse who ran well in line 8, 10 months ago, doesn't do much for you today if the horse hasn't demonstrated good form and condition since! Unless, of course, you just want to throw darts with a blindfold on and hope for the best.

If you would like to see how this works, go to the "matcher's" section. I have been posting a review of those races each week for a couple of months. I go over each horse in the race and offer an opinion of the horse and the line to use. At the end of my review I have posted screen shots using and old Sartin ENERGY program. I think you will find those reviews informative. Those races were not "hand picked" by me. Someone else posted them and I just reviewed them. I think you will find my line selection consistent and in line with the guidelines posted by MIKESAL57 and those in the Paceline Manual.

Ok, back to the "best of last 3 dist/surf" method.
This method is based on speed rating.
IF you choose to use this method, the first thing I would stress is, make sure you are using sprint lines in sprints and route lines in routes.
The next thing is, just how far back are you going to go for a line?
Suppose today's race is a sprint and the horse hasn't been in a sprint race in any of its' last 3 starts.
Suppose the last sprint race was 120 days, or more, ago? If you use that line is it really an indication of how the horse will perform today?
Worse yet, suppose that line isn't the best of last 3 dist/surf and you end up going back 6 months for that "best of last 3 dist/surf" line.

Suppose the horse's last race was a sprint and today's race is a sprint.
Suppose further, that the last race was a 2nd place finish, but there is a faster (based on speed rating) race where the horse finished 1st 5 lines down and about 5 months ago but still within the "best of last 3 dist/surf" guidelines. Which line do you think is more predictive of the horse's current form and condition?
One of the things I don’t like with the “best of last 3 dist/surf” method is, sometimes you are taking a line just because of the speed rating, but the horse really showed nothing at all in the way of form. It’s what I refer to as, “a slow horse in a fast race.”


I hope you see what I am getting at with these two different approaches.
I prefer the "original" guidelines in the manual. I believe starting at the beginning lays a foundation for whatever it is that may come later. First you understand the basics and then you move on, IF you want to.
You have to choose what you feel is best for you, but in order to make that determination, it requires a lot of work on your part. It requires a lot of "testing" and 50 or 100 races may not be enough. Short trials are never enough to land you on solid ground.
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Old 12-28-2011, 08:59 AM   #9
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Smile Great help

Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
They are two different approaches.

First, you got a lot of good responses here.

Let me add to those responses, the following.

If you are looking for a foundation, then I would start at the beginning, not in the middle. MIKESAL57 showed you "a part" of the Paceline Manual and you should read that manual, in particular, pages 17, 18 and 19, as well as the other information there.

Before I go any further, let me address the idea of "best of last 3" as I understand it. First of all, it is NOT "best of last 3", it is "best of last 3 DISTANCE AND SURFACE!". I see many people choosing pace lines that are from route races when today's race is a sprint and sprint lines when today's race is a route. If you follow the actual "best of last 3 dist/surf" guidelines, that should not happen. I just wanted to clear that up and I will address this concept in more detail later.

I have found this out through testing. I am using it as the best match distance, surface and condition of last three.

As to selecting pace lines as shown in the manual, the idea here, as you can see from MIKESAL57's post, is to use the last line "unless" there is a "valid" reason to go back. The obvious question is, "go back how far?". The answer is "ONE RACE". You're probably also asking yourself, "unless WHAT?" In MIKESAL57's post there are some guidelines there to help answer that question, but let me go into more detail.
Obviously, if a horse ran dead last around the track in its’ last race, you don’t use it.
You also don’t use the last race if the horse didn’t demonstrate some type of “form”.
Ok, so let’s start.
Take any horse and start with its' last race.
Did the horse finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd?
Did the horse show good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls, even if it faded?
Did the horse show a good "middle move" by being within two lengths at the second call, even if it faded?
These are all "good races".
All these types of races "show form" and “condition”.
IF the horse’s last race shows any of these attributes, the last race is your line.

Now, suppose the horse DOESN'T show any of these attributes in its' last race?
Now you have to make a decision.
Now the idea of a "valid" excuse comes into play.
Read MIKESAL57's post to get an idea of "some" of the "valid" reasons to go back ONE LINE.
IF one of those "valid" reasons are present, then go to line 2 and follow the same procedure.

I will caution you here that this procedure does not go on for all ten lines in the horse's PP's. In general, if you don't find a line in the last two races (perhaps 3 races under extreme circumstances), then that horse doesn't get a line and is not a contender. (at least for the "win" position, which is all I evaluate)

One more thing, personally, I don't give horses a line if they haven't raced in the last 90 days and I don't use lines that are more than 90 days old.
The idea is to use a line that represents the horse's "current" form and condition.
A horse who ran well in line 8, 10 months ago, doesn't do much for you today if the horse hasn't demonstrated good form and condition since! Unless, of course, you just want to throw darts with a blindfold on and hope for the best.

If you would like to see how this works, go to the "matcher's" section. I have been posting a review of those races each week for a couple of months. I go over each horse in the race and offer an opinion of the horse and the line to use. At the end of my review I have posted screen shots using and old Sartin ENERGY program. I think you will find those reviews informative. Those races were not "hand picked" by me. Someone else posted them and I just reviewed them. I think you will find my line selection consistent and in line with the guidelines posted by MIKESAL57 and those in the Paceline Manual.

I will check this out.

Ok, back to the "best of last 3 dist/surf" method.
This method is based on speed rating.
IF you choose to use this method, the first thing I would stress is, make sure you are using sprint lines in sprints and route lines in routes.

I am using the last race almost all the time and it is working out great. About the only time I go beyond the first race is sprint verses route lines, surface and problem races (good reason a horse had a bad race)

The next thing is, just how far back are you going to go for a line?
Suppose today's race is a sprint and the horse hasn't been in a sprint race in any of its' last 3 starts.
Suppose the last sprint race was 120 days, or more, ago? If you use that line is it really an indication of how the horse will perform today?
Worse yet, suppose that line isn't the best of last 3 dist/surf and you end up going back 6 months for that "best of last 3 dist/surf" line.

Do you not use a line if these two sceniaros are present?

Suppose the horse's last race was a sprint and today's race is a sprint.
Suppose further, that the last race was a 2nd place finish, but there is a faster (based on speed rating) race where the horse finished 1st 5 lines down and about 5 months ago but still within the "best of last 3 dist/surf" guidelines. Which line do you think is more predictive of the horse's current form and condition?
This is where I am really having a problem. Deciding if the horse will be back in form to repeat this race.

One of the things I don’t like with the “best of last 3 dist/surf” method is, sometimes you are taking a line just because of the speed rating, but the horse really showed nothing at all in the way of form. It’s what I refer to as, “a slow horse in a fast race.”


I hope you see what I am getting at with these two different approaches.
I prefer the "original" guidelines in the manual. I believe starting at the beginning lays a foundation for whatever it is that may come later. First you understand the basics and then you move on, IF you want to.
You have to choose what you feel is best for you, but in order to make that determination, it requires a lot of work on your part. It requires a lot of "testing" and 50 or 100 races may not be enough. Short trials are never enough to land you on solid ground.
Thanks Lead and Mike. Along with reading and testing, your input has been very helpful. I am going to start another thread based on something I am really struggling with.
Thanks again
Melvin
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Old 12-28-2011, 09:23 AM   #10
Bill V.
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Look forward to it Melvin
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