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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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03-06-2019, 01:11 PM | #21 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Many Thanks
Dorianmode and Richie M
Thank you for sharing your workups and stats about turf racing Very helpful and surely will help others win more often. Bill |
03-06-2019, 01:34 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 101
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turf contenders
I too want to thank Richie and Dorianmode for their insights.
Bill V, you do a great job as well on this site with all aspects of handicapping. Turf racing and maiden races can result in nice pay outs, but also the toughest challenge to handicap. coacht |
03-17-2019, 07:25 PM | #23 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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I am not forgetting I have an open question (above) I need to yet answer ... about how I figure differences from the profile.
Here was a fun one. GP 3, on Friday 3/15. I did bet this one, including the exotics, because my "advantage" numbers (which I'm trying to develop) of the selections one over the other were strong. But even just using RDSS's "raw" selections produce the winner in 1, exacta in 3, the perfecta in 4, and the superfecta in 5. And that's not just blarney. |
03-17-2019, 09:12 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 101
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turf contenders
thanks for your replay
hope you can share your advantage numbers at a future date. sounds like they are working in turf races |
03-18-2019, 06:34 PM | #25 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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One thing I forgot to mention about the race above, (GP 3, 3/15).
So in general some days, it seems what this game is about, is validating (or not) what the prevailing opinion is, about the runners in a certain race, (or some days it feels like that). This race was an exception to that. The winner here was 4 in the ML, 3 in the final odds. The winner was not in the top 5 Bris Prime Power selections, nor was it in the Profit Line top 5 selections. The winner was, however 1 in BL in RDSS, 2 in Rx1, 1 in the remaining Rx rankings. More importantly for me, it was 1 in my CSR, one in VDC, 1 in my Contender calculation, and 1 in a number of other numbers I've developed. So if I look at other's public opinions (which I do), in the end, one's own proven handicapping is what has to take preference, even if it doesn't agree with the public numbers. |
03-23-2019, 09:59 AM | #26 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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One little non-handicapping tool I found helpful is this weather forecast grouping.
If it's going to be raining, obviously I wouldn't prepare a turf race, and I don't play off-turf races. http://www.equidaily.com/bestbet/weather.html (Hope it's OK to post this ... if not just remove it ) |
03-23-2019, 04:28 PM | #27 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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I've said before, that race selection is very important. A perfect example of the type of race I avoid like the plague, was GP #7, Saturday 3/23. It came up on my race search for turf routes. By the time I get to about the 5th runner ... "nope, nope, nope". Look what happened.
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03-24-2019, 01:20 PM | #28 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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GP race 4 3/24/19
This one is a real tough one because of the conditions.
Nonwinners of a race on the turf in six months I was wondering if anyone played this one Here are my notes GP RACE 4 5.0 T 4+ CL N1-6m FM who have not won a race on the turf since Sept 30 Horse 1 She won on the turf as a 2-year-old twice but has never hit the board against older Horse 2 Just missed last November, Placed at GPW Comes back after a 121 day lay off Horse 3 She won at Belmont at 6 furlongs on the turf last July She has not hit the board in two races at GP Horse 4 She last won o the turf last Aug 22 She has not hit the board since going 0 for 7 Horse 5 She last won 360 days ago at GP at 5 furlongs in a CL16 She has not hit the board since that win going 0 for 6 Horse 6 She won back to back turf sprints at 5 furlongs at CBY she is 0 for 2 at GP this meet missing the board both times Horse 7 She has been hitting the board almost every race at PID Today is her first try at GP Her last win was at PID in a 25 claimer interestingly at the cut off day Sept 26th She does not show any turf races Horse 8 She last won on the turf at WO on Aug 31 at 6.5 furlongs in a 20 Claimer N2-L She has run on the turf since Today his her first race on the turf and at GP |
03-24-2019, 02:13 PM | #29 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Picks
Because of the many questions I only used race 4 in my pick 4
I used the 3 and 6 I used the 5 6 7 on top in a .10 super |
03-24-2019, 03:07 PM | #30 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Quote:
I used the 5 and 8 for 3rd and 4th My $1.20 ticket paid $23.77 Last edited by Bill V.; 03-24-2019 at 03:21 PM. |
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