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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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02-09-2019, 10:45 AM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,125
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Fairchild as you can see there are several ways that members approach picking pacelines. I myself am in the no automatic throw outs camp since I never learned that from Doc or any of the other teaching member. The important thing to remember is that unless you are getting the proper contenders, by whatever selection process you settle on, paceline selection will end up moot. Putting in a bad horse or 2 will throw your readouts out of whack. Keeping records of your results is paramount to success. If you don't have the winner in your mix 85 to 90% of the time then contender selection needs to be revisited.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
02-09-2019, 02:44 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Just for clarity I never said I only bet horses over 30 days or 0ver 90 days. They come when they do and only become a play if they meet my criteria. A horse with a morning line of 20-1 is just someone else's opinion. I can make that decision for myself and have the confidence to make it better than those who made the line.
When one looks that even the best will lose at least 1/3 of races played coupled with 90 day horses, horses over 20-1 account for another 20%. That's a whopping 53% going into races before you pick up a pen or turn on your CP. Not counting cutbacks, stretch-outs. Well I just refuse to give up those kinds of percentages going into a race. I also don't concur with the Doc's theory of wager capping. When I handicap a race I am strictly win oriented. And don't care if the horse pays $2.80. Winners are the springboard for all bets. And a $2.80 horse can spring a great EX, Tri, DD etc. I always ask the question how can I make money out of this race and design my betting to take advantage of my handicapping. If the options aren't there I'll put $2 on it because I spent time doing the race however I'm not going to put $50 or $100 into a low paying win horse. I've seen many nice $35 Ex. with favorites. The race itself must be evaluated just like the horses. The public tends to make the same mistakes everyday. They also tend to hammer one or two horses and a legit top 3rd or top 4th horse pays very well. They all tend to follow the morning line, tote etc. And then there are the tin men at the track that don't have any heart and just can't bet a good price horse, however to reap the rewards one must make the bet. One should collect their own stats before believing everything that they read is gospel. How stats are collected are very prone to mistakes and are greatly affected by age, distance etc. Especially prices as routes are more form-full that sprints, age etc. The game has also changes and with it some old stats, believes are no longer valid. Days since last race is one of them. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 02-09-2019 at 02:58 PM. |
02-10-2019, 12:48 PM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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In post #22 above Mitch44 wrote: "I always ask the question how can I make money out of this race and design my betting to take advantage of my handicapping."
One of the best sentences I have ever read on this board. Excellent post. Thank you. Richard |
02-10-2019, 03:00 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Thanks very much Richard, your comment is greatly appreciated.
Betting is a big part of success and greatly neglected by the masses. An example of this was last year we were doing races on this site from Delmar. That's a tough track because they card many turf races ,2 yr' old's and under developed 3 yr. The turf races there encounter many horses running for the first time on turf. The race put up was an older horse race and pretty straight forward but the best horse towered over the field with a low M / L, definitely going to be a low paying favorite. I didn't see a good EX for the race and winners are always easier to pick so I looked to the DD. The race after nothing jumped off the page for me however the race before was favorable. I hit it and DD paid over $ 500.00 for $2 ticket, the post and ticket bet is somewhere in my posts. Many will dismiss that post as luck but it was nothing of the sort. My definition of luck has always been; " Preparation meeting destiny." Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 02-10-2019 at 03:02 PM. |
02-10-2019, 03:49 PM | #25 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I keep saying that averages are very deceptive as are all stats. When a stat is stated the reader has no idea how that stat was collected. How something is gathered, is a very critically important or key ingredient to any statistical facts. And unless you're the gatherer there is absolutely no way of knowing the truth of the fact. And even then it may be a flawed study. Additionally common sense isn't used in the harvesting of facts.
In horse racing the game is fraught with facts. No one questions their validity and blindly accepts them. Case in point; it is stated that favorites win 33% of time and have for the last 50 or 60 years. Today this is no longer true because the game has changed with many more tracks, shorter fields, not enough horses to go around all of which which increase the number of favorites. And it always was that higher class horses are more consistent and have a higher % of favorites winning. Few have broken this down by class. There is a huge difference between older G1 horses favorites winning % and the % of the lowly NW2L etc. type races. Remember that 33% encompassed all and the worst races brought down those averages. As far as stats for horses under 30 days returning paying more than horses with longer layoffs. well I find that suspect at best. Most likely there were one or two longshots in there that distorted the average price. Definitely not the norm. I wouldn't include such horses in that study or even the lowest ones. One should be looking for the median of that category not the abnormal exceptions. I stated a horse I saw a horse laid off for over a year at Tampa and coming back with a suspicious drop that won and was made the favorite, definitely not a normal occurrence. There always abnormal occurrences of things and will always be, especially in horse racing. We should be looking to capture the many not the exceptions. Also nothing burger stats mean just that to me NOTHING. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 02-10-2019 at 03:58 PM. |
02-10-2019, 03:58 PM | #26 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Del Mar Race of the day - Summer 2017
Here you go, Mitch
The Del Mar race of the Day back in summer of 2017 You did awesome with many smart bets Here is the $500 double post http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11299 GS Bill |
02-10-2019, 04:16 PM | #27 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Stats
Hi Mitch
my stats posted in this thread are clearly noted, only races from GP in the current winter meeting for older male and female horses No maiden races and no races with less than 7 horse The same criteria Rmath uses for his studies although RMath uses more than 1 track. I will gladly sort and eliminate anything you can come up with but I believe the numbers will still support that long layoff horses on a whole do not pay better than horses off less than 31 days at GP This is what I look for Expectation and probabilities Let me know Best Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 02-10-2019 at 04:19 PM. |
02-10-2019, 04:30 PM | #28 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Hello Bill,
Hope your health is as good as your handicapping, which is always excellent. Like you just trying to pass on some knowledge to the new members here. There really are some very good handicappers here. We aren't robots and we all have our techniques. The site is like brain storming and the RDSS program encompasses the best of all Sartin's work. When I started I was overwhelmed with Sartin material but eventually the light went off. So many tools and not a easy subject to master. But those that are great at anything didn't get there overnight. You Bill are one that has paid his dues and have risen above the rest. Good skill Bill. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 02-10-2019 at 04:39 PM. |
02-10-2019, 04:38 PM | #29 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Bill if it works for you then keep on doing. Just trying to enlighten and help out.
We both love ice cream just different flavors. Meet you at the ice cream parlor Bill and maybe we can collaborate with a scoop of each. That would be nice and Saratoga maybe the right parlor in August with its many flavors. Mitch44 |
02-10-2019, 06:51 PM | #30 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Sure thing
Quote:
I am very happy to share my work, for Pace and Cap members I take my model work very serious Something I learned from Ted and M. Pizzola in the book Pace Makes The Race. Neatness and diligence will lead to perfection. Special shout and thank you to Rmath, His blueprint for races worked makes my models powerful Thank you for the kind word Icecream with you and my friends at Saratoga Nothing will ever taste so good to me, I will make it with all my strength and the blessings from God. |
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