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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-08-2018, 11:12 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Pizzolla and "Two Excuse" method
In my brief instances of free time in the mornings, I've been reading Pizzolla's "Handicapping Magic" on the iPad. Lots of good (and provocative) ideas, as is the Pizzolla norm. One chapter that caught my eye was the "Two Excuse" method of paceline selection. As the method suggests, if there are two valid reasons to go beyond the last line, you skip to the next line and apply the same logic until you can no longer justify going beyond the line. At that point, you take the best race (Pizzolla uses Pace Balanced Speed - PBS and Projected Power Fraction) within that "form cycle window" as your paceline. Pizzolla's logic is that oftentimes, that method will net better mutuels and exotics because the user will be using lines that others may summarily dismiss due to various reasons.
In my work with Mitch last year, we were often using the best perceptor over a similar distance (within a furlong, preferably a half furlong) and surface (no muddy/sloppy tracks on dirt), providing that the line was not completely conformed to the horse's normal E/L distribution pattern. In a sense, the logic is similar - opening up the PPs to snag more of the "under the radar" runners that standard conventions may disagree with. Does anyone here have experience with the teachings of "Handicapping Magic" and if so, what were your takeaways? |
01-08-2018, 01:31 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,140
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Hi Tim. I read his book and also used Black Magic software trying to convince a youngster that RDSS is better. The 2 excuse method is similar to what Mitch and I have been using for yrs except we only need 1 to go back past a line. It has worked very well for us. Just be careful as to what you consider a valid excuse. I also added to my list not using lifetime best lines for older horses[5up] and I'm leery of using speed ratings on younger horses that are more then 5 points then anything else in its chart especially if it's not the last line. If it's the last line I look for a reason such as dist,trainer,equipment ,or surface switch. If I don't see 1 I look for it's next best line and see how both rate in RDSS. I find legit contenders usually have multi lines that keepthem in the top 3.
Tim
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01-08-2018, 03:27 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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How
How do u know if its a lifetime best for 5 yr olds and up, when we only have 10 lines to look at in the PP's? And believe me not trying to be a smart ass.
Bob |
01-08-2018, 03:46 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Jeeps: You have my pace line selection technique down pat. I have been using it for years so to speak but the Preceptor has honed it to a more efficient method, the reason is that sometimes we don't see visually into the line ( or internal moves) like Preceptor does.
I have been following Sartin's concept of selecting a line for years and have adapted to his evolution in doing so as he adapted. That means I don't religiously use the last line which is so 1986 or so with the original pace line manual. His last recommendation on tape was to never to go back past line # 5 because the horse may not be the same horse. Also many years of research and thousands of selected lines showed the bulk to be within that parameter. Actually that research showed that the further back the fewer times a line is correct or in other words its closer to the top of the chart. The reason for that is the form factor which is greatly effected by recency or the horse may not be the same horse that ran that line. There are exceptions to everything and if one can't grasp those exceptions than I highly recommended sticking to rules or Sartin teachings of never going past the 5th line. I could argue a last line and the horse may not be the same. We see this with cheap claimers a lot. They are unsound and can't run or put together two good races. I access all horses best surface and distance and don't expect a horse to perform its best unless its entered under those conditions which is a huge reason I get away with it. And I have specific questions for layoffs to deal with that. I don't advocate the Pizzolla two excuse method which is designed to get better prices as it forces the issue and that's not good. I go back based on Sartin guidelines which doesn't force the issue and isn't designed for price, its designed to give the horse its best chance to win and not hold conditions against it that it doesn't prefer. If they could talk they would tell the trainers where to enter them. Quite a difference indeed. I would not recommend any Pizzolla method for picking a pace line. Mitch44 |
01-08-2018, 04:06 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I only open up the PP's to get a line as the PP's or line tells me to go to another line Jeebs.
Pizzolla will use a 5 F turf race for a dirt route (taking its best in the chart) which I would never do that. His line picking is something I would never condone. Also having tried his BM for a 90 day trial I would not recommend it at all. His pace numbers are the worse I've ever seen and Phase one or TPR are much netter and would outperform them. For a guy that started with Sartin he sure never evolved as far as pace numbers. I believe the flaw is in adjusting the 3rd FR or his PBS numbers. Adjusting those is not adjusting them to todays matchup but he adjusts them to the matchup of that race which is not todays matchup. If your using RDSS you are using the best out there for pace handicapping. Mitch44 |
02-05-2018, 06:06 PM | #6 | |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 25
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Pizzola
Quote:
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02-06-2018, 01:40 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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06-15-2021, 04:11 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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Blast from the past...spending the afternoon browsing old threads to jog the old memory...semi-annual tune up. I forgot this one - Mike's power 3rd fraction. How was that calculated?
Say a horse runs against a 46 112 pace and gains 5 lengths from the half. Raw he gets a 25 3rd fraction. How did he adjust that? |
06-16-2021, 09:01 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Mp
I believe he added back the 5 beaten lengths at the half
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01-08-2018, 05:01 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,140
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Bob that's a very good question. I use Bris pps so it's in the lifetime box. In the trackmaster pps I should have said the highest sr showing in the 10 lines, which is in bold print, and may not be a lifetime best but I won't use it. Either way I've found over the years that older horses, with the exception of very high class animals, do not repeat those type of efforts. It's just my own personal quirk and is not part of Docs teachings and in no way am I telling folks not to use those lines if they are comfortable doing so. I would recommend that they might want to keep records of how those horses perform when they use those lines.
Tim
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