Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Hat Check - How Can We Help You? > Matchup Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-06-2017, 01:29 PM   #81
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
Okay Rich we'll have to watch that one. I checked Saturday but didn't see anything. I don't see them all. Depends on the 11 scratching.

Thanks

Pook
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 01:48 PM   #82
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
This could be a play Saturday
Attached Images
 
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 02:11 PM   #83
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
Bradshaw's teachings

Name:  Paceless.PNG
Views: 401
Size:  43.2 KB
Mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 04:25 PM   #84
papajohn3times
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
Hello all!
I am confused as to where to find POWER LINES? On the few race demo's Ted worked,it seemed to be assigned a number in small size. When I asked where that was on the latest RDSS2,He said it ws redudant so he removed it I guess. If it is(the numbers) truly not on the program,wher do I find it now?
Thanks folks!
Papa John
papajohn3times is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 07:23 PM   #85
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
What is a Power LIne?

First define it! A POWER LINE is the best finish against the fastest early pace a horse has run against. Depending on the race today, that would be an up close finish against the fastest early pace on dirt or Poly or turf route or sprint, whatever the distance and surface of today's race.


You either find the line using the Original screen which is what "The Hat" did or there are ways you can find them in RDSS using adjusted screens. It took me a couple of years to figure out how to do that so you are going to have to struggle through that yourself.


These lines which you qualify, either accept or reject if they are deep in a horse's pps. Once you are satisfied with the resulting POWER LINES, those are what you use to compare horses with, not the last line or the best of the last three or any of that nonsense.


As far as I know and I have been handicapping for over 50 years Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw is the only handicapper who won over 50% of his single horse bets. Richie P can attest to this and probably a lot more. So why would you try to reinvent the wheel. The Match Up gets you price horses, you don't have to settle for betting these short price horses. But you have to put the time in and study and practice.


Good Luck
Mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 08:54 PM   #86
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Poweline

Hello Mark
( Hi Richie)
Is line 2 the power line for this horse?
It ran a + race against the fastest second call in its total PP's
on the same surface and distance ( turf route) as that day's race

Thanks
Bill

Name:  Day 1.JPG
Views: 180
Size:  179.3 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:05 PM   #87
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
While Richie is the master, I will put in my 2 cents. The only time you would question a line like this, is if he lost position and/or beaten lengths, 1c -2c which would indicate he can't handle the pace.


The other concern I would have is what pace are you projecting to the 2nd call today. From this line, he appears to be a Sustained runner. If he is entered today against a much slower early pace, he may not have the same close. The front end of that paceline may have just collapsed and he just waltzed by late.
Mark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 09:08 PM   #88
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark View Post
You are probably right.

I am doing an experiment to try and ease the workload involved in paceless races. Projecting a pace is difficult. Finding the right powerlines from which to handicap is difficult. Getting down to the right contenders is difficult. By difficult I mean compared to races with speed and a projectable pace.

I hadn't seriously considered these races until I noticed some interesting things happening in some of the races Richie had been posting. So I thought an approach could be worked out that could yield results that are good enough. It is based mainly on Bradshaws teachings with some other stuff mixed in.

None of these events should have E or EP runners in them. You try to determine the front runner, discard, and choose the runner best positioned after that. The principle is the same. What horses you use and what information you use from them is determined differently.

So far I am impressed at how predictable these are. Right from the gate many unfold as anticipated. And many are no big secrets as seen by the $5 mutuels. Back to the RP race on Sept 16 there have been four single wins in nine races. That is using a method that wasn't fully cemented for the first couple of events. Enough to be encouraged. I would be foolish to be putting actual money into these things yet. I will post at least eleven more for a total of 20 before I test privately over a longer period. We will see how things look after the 20.

For me this approach to a paceless race is faster with the heavy lifting done by RDSS and FTL. Powerlines and what that entails may work better.

Feel free to jump in with these races before post times with some detail on power lines, your projected paces etc. Maybe you have it down. So far I haven't seen any input from anybody as to how they approach this specific type of race. Some are getting winners but they appear to be doing these as any other races. Some just post numbers.

Pook
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2017, 07:43 AM   #89
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
I think all of this work going on here is fantastic!
There aren't many of them but these types eluded me when I was working races in earnest Matching.

For ME the Matchup is very hard work mentally and for ME to make it work profitably I needed total focus and TIME - neither of which I have right now on any sort of consistent basis. I'm far from a master at this just was really good conveying Jim's thoughts and not adding any of my own stuff.

The horse Bill is asking about(Hey Bill!!!!!) line 2 is his power line. As far as if that race fell apart helping him here is a little something Hat offered up for us to deal with stuff like this:

Get your race down to final true contenders for WIN:
1) Use your power line pace of race fractions and positioning
2) Using Voodoo as Jim called it substitute positioning from other lines that put him "closer to the pace" keeping the power line fractions.
3) Now WHO is your horse(s)?

This is to be done ONLY with final contenders for WIN.

Pook you are doing awesome work man, Mark is terrific and has sent me by email big winners and place price horses before they ran using one horse also. Raceman, Bill, Tim, Bill L, lostandwon and everyone who takes the time to post here are really appreciated by me.

Analysis and thoughts are always greatly appreciated, believe me I understand what its like to post all your analysis and the horse doesn't lift its legs, I did it with Jim on the phone OFTEN!
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2017, 07:47 AM   #90
RichieP
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
Here is todays 11th from Belmont, full pps, tandems etc


all are welcome to jump in!
Attached Images
     
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!"
RichieP is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
20 Race Cycles - For Beginners and Old Alike Because I Can Jim Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 1 04-13-2017 03:56 PM
Non winner of 2 lifetime races Bill Lyster General Discussion 21 06-29-2015 12:25 AM
8 Month Matchup Thread (Re-posted) Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 4 05-01-2015 05:02 PM
FTL - Race Conditions NeedForSpeed Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 15 06-17-2013 09:18 PM
Review of TAM 4th 12.19.12 For The Lead Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 5 12-20-2012 10:23 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:25 PM.