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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-11-2017, 05:53 PM   #51
Jeebs
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Great thread. Following along is like listening to a seminar. Lots of good ideas passing through.
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Old 11-11-2017, 06:02 PM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Congratulations to those who say they win with longer than 90 day layoff horses, They win but very infrequently

Here is a workup of what is going on today

Not from ones recall of past sucsess These are recent results from races
I as a average user of the methodology actually handicapped
these are facts from my most recent 206 race

In the screen shot I have recorded every horsewho in those 206 races
ran coming off a layoff longer than 90 days.

There were a total of 1672 horses in those 206 races
of those 1672 horses only 79 ran after a layoff over 90 days
Of those 79 horses only 4 won the race
Here are the results of those horses who have run after a layoff of over 90 days
They sure did not get life changing win prices .

Here is the complete list of those 79 runners
in a spreadheet

Attachment 44968

Attachment 44969
Bill, this is a great study that you made, and reaffirms my own information. Having said that, about 10 years ago, I bet a 7 year old mare coming back from a 3-1/2 year layoff in a maiden race at Penn National. Her name was Lily "something" and she won paying either 7.20 or 7.60. That was the longest I'd seen at that point. and betting her had more to do with how her connections were giving away their intention vs. the morning line. And for the record I don't win playing 90+ day layoffs.
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Old 11-11-2017, 06:49 PM   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Congratulations to those who say they win with longer than 90 day layoff horses, They win but very infrequently

Here is a workup of what is going on today

Not from ones recall of past sucsess These are recent results from races
I as a average user of the methodology actually handicapped
these are facts from my most recent 206 race

In the screen shot I have recorded every horsewho in those 206 races
ran coming off a layoff longer than 90 days.

There were a total of 1672 horses in those 206 races
of those 1672 horses only 79 ran after a layoff over 90 days
Of those 79 horses only 4 won the race
Here are the results of those horses who have run after a layoff of over 90 days
They sure did not get life changing win prices .

Here is the complete list of those 79 runners
in a spreadheet

Attachment 44968

Attachment 44969
Thanks Bill.

With millions and millions of horses and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of races in my database, I have been cautioning people that horses off more than 90 days win less than 5% of races for the 9 years I’ve been at this site.

In your short sample, they won just under 2%.

I hope there are some folks out there that are listening.
It’s helpful information.
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Old 11-11-2017, 06:58 PM   #54
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Long layoffs are a giant bugaboo IMO. Certain trainers are better in prepping a horse to fire off extended inactivity than others. However, none of it matters if they don't have the horse. A Linda Rice 3yo runner came back the other day at the Big A off a May layoff vs. a suspect field and won by daylight - at 5/2 odds in a 5 horse field nonetheless. The reliability of an older line is questionable when it comes to measuring ability of a comeback runner. I see why some here won't consider such lines. However, a 5% clip equates to natural odds of roughly 19-1. Tells me that one should demand an aggressive premium if they insist on taking lines off comebackers coming back from a long absence. However, if you choose to play recency and ignore the long layoff types, it simplifies the decision making prices that much more.
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Old 11-11-2017, 09:01 PM   #55
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I never throw out a horse just because of a layoff. There is a lot more to success with layoff horses than just the time factor of the layoff. ( Length of the layoff)


Is it properly placed today as to its best distance and surface? Is it up or down in class? What is the trainers record with Layoffs? Has the horse responded well before from a layoff? What odds are you getting? Do the odds compensate me for the risk? That's a big ? If a horse is up in class after a layoff the trainer pretty much is tipping his hand that the horse isn't ready. What kind of workouts does the horse have?


Where does this horse fit in your analysis? A horse may not be fit to win but may be fit enough to be in your ex. or tri. You see this one often whether a layoff or not.


Trainers seem to be racing their horses less frequently now a days and also some horses actually run better fresh. Its not unusual to lay young horses off to allow them to mature.

Layoffs are just one of the situational handicapping problems that must be handled and encountered in the process. Finally if unsure then consider it an unknown factor and pass the race if there are two unknown factors.


I don't really have a problem with layoffs. There are answers to most handicapping problems and the same situations and problems seem to occur. Its the nature of the game.


Generally I downgrade horses with very long layoffs at least on grade to include even grade 1 types. If I make a horse # 1 I downgrade it to number 2 etc. within my top 5. My two horse betting compensates when I'm wrong, but I have to get the correct answers to all the questions above. Those questions carry much more weight with me that the time period of the layoff itself.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 11-11-2017 at 09:16 PM.
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Old 11-11-2017, 09:11 PM   #56
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Bill;

Nice job with your study of layoff horses

Jeff
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Old 11-11-2017, 11:35 PM   #57
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Bill Would you consider this horse a ntl horse by the 2nd call since if I understand correctly line 1 doesn't project it be on the lead by that point. What was your feeling about that since we know that when most ntl types don't get it at the point they need they usually fold and finish off the board.
Tim
I wouldn’t characterize the horse as a “need to lead horse by the second call”. Instead, I would just say it is an EARLY horse. EARLY horses get the lead early in the race. The second call is not early. Let me offer an example.

Your watching your favorite football team. With just seconds left in the 3rd quarter they are trailing 14-10. On the very last play of the 3rd quarter they score a touchdown and take the lead 17-14. Does that mean they had the “early” lead in the game? I mean, the game is 75% over. If this is the early part of the game, what was the 1st quarter or the 1st half?

In a 6 furlong race the second call marks 67% of the race being completed.
In a 1 mile race the second call marks 75% of the race being completed.
So isn’t there an “earlier” call that marks the race in its’ early stage?
There sure is. It’s called the first call or first fraction.

Also, you asked Bill V if he would be concerned that the horse in question here might fade in the stretch.
Let me ask you a question.
Would you be concerned that betting against the horse in question here might find your choice chasing it home, not being able to catch it?

It works both ways, but you never hear anyone ask, “are you concerned that your choice of horse might not be able to catch the early horse?
It’s always the other way around….no matter how many times the early horse gets chased home a winner.
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:01 AM   #58
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how long

FTL
Quote:
Thanks Bill.

With millions and millions of horses and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of races in my database, I have been cautioning people that horses off more than 90 days win less than 5% of races for the 9 years I’ve been at this site.

In your short sample, they won just under 2%.

I hope there are some folks out there that are listening.
It’s helpful information.
Yes the numbers from your total database hold true today and now

Here is what I saw today, In the 35 races I handicapped
there were 309 horses. There were only 10 horses with a layoff of over 90 days
of those 10 horses there were 2 winners. They paid $9.60 and $3.80
1 horse place and 1 horse showed.

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Old 11-12-2017, 12:06 AM   #59
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3rd off a 200+ day layoff

edited by Bill V. If the 3rd race off a layoff is the "Money Run", then what are the 1st and 2nd races following the layoff? Not "Money Runs", get it?
Each horse is different as are their trainers. The only time you will see a horse win off a long layoff is at long odds. Believe it or not, these trainers and owners bet their horses and when better to get a big price but off a long layoff. Many times you will see what used to be nice horse on the huge class drop off these long layoffs because he is broken and the connections are trying to sell the horse. Horses that have been taken out of training due to injury need between 60 and 90 days of work to approach racing fitness.
The classic layoff return angle is sprint, sprint, route. I have been handicapping for over 50 years and that is something I learned early on reading books.
All i can say is "Do your own work", practice and when you start making a profit on paper then consider wagering for real. Otherwise you are just a gambler and looking for a quick fix.

Last edited by Bill V.; 11-12-2017 at 02:30 AM.
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Old 11-12-2017, 12:41 AM   #60
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Tim

I just watched the video seminar while handicapping today from home.
Today was the first time I have not been at Del Mar on a Saturday if I was in town since I moved here in 2009.

I had a great day betting in my room I copied a move Ted used while he visited . I set up my laptop on the back porch and while facing a beautiful view of the Pacific ocean worked about 10 of the 35 total races i looked at today.

Anyway about being a need The Lead horse. I interpret what Doc suggested as the using the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4 as fallows.
being a Early horse being a Early Presser or Presser being a Sustained and being a Late
So in this case I would have marked the 3 as a 1=Early horse but after only 3 races, one of which was a turf race which is a non comparable paceline.
2 races is too small a sample to call this horse a Need The Lead horse
Look at its break positions . It passes horses and fought for the lead in the first call in line 1 In line 3 it went wire to wire

Lets look at what RDSS calculated using line 3

Horse 3 will be in third position in F1.
Third position but with 10 computed beaten lengths, Now look what
happens in F2, It makes a big move on the turn ( this is based on its maiden win line)
To be 10 lengths behind in F1 but positioned 3rd, and then to now only be 2.4 computer beaten lengths behind at the second call. Shows a tremendous move. A move which begins in the first fraction and is carried thought the 2nd fraction. This is what Doc advised - Look for horses that make moves in 2 fractions. This is proof of the validity of using the maiden win line.

The 3 continues that move in the 3rd fraction and ends up rank 2nd

A solid job by RDSS for sure .

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