Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-01-2010, 10:22 AM   #1
pktruckdriver
Grade 1
 
pktruckdriver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
To Pass or To Play, could you help me decide?

Ok I am lucky enough to have unlimited downloads, and was wondering if someone much more experienced than I would be willing to take a Track/Card or 2 each day and see if there are really true playable races on the card that day, or if there are none, then none will qualify according to a set of rules we choose, or Doc chose to play or pass on.

Say Churchill and Woodbine, or maybe Mountaineer and go thru the Card and see if any races are quailified plays for the day, and maybe we could do this for a month or so to get a good feel for when to play and when to pass, at least for me, as maybe you have mastered this already, me well I could use help on this area, and I will also keep track,(write down any plays made too), and finally zero in on my strengths and become the awesome winner I know that I can become, especially when really focused as I should be and this will help me do this, will it not???


I think the qualifiers are as follows maybe

No Maidens
No races where too many lay-offs
No races where no current pacelines (under 90 days for race type)
No races with Enough turf and or dirt pacelines to compare

I think there may be more qualifiers but I believe you get the idea and I thinkl this will help me tremendously by having someone to keep me honest here and not alloww me to stray and add this or that race, when it does not belong, like I been doing .

This committment is a big thing and will be tough on my time as I dop work long hours now, but should still be able to get a track or 2 done each day, if the same ones over and over, no??

Thanks for your help, and I know your reply , may be, do it yourself man, but if I could have by now I would have, but I need a little help here with this, my discipline isn't under complete control yet, and I do mean yet, ok.


Patrick
pktruckdriver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2010, 11:43 AM   #2
lsosa54
Grade 1
 
lsosa54's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
Focus on evaluating the 1st 2 ML favorites, who win about half of all races. If you can make a logical case for eliminating one or both, then it might be a good race to play. It's not foolproof and there are no hard and fast elimination rules, but just go through a logical process.

If you decide to play, contenders with ML's of 5,6, and 8 I have found provide the best bang for the buck, but you must obviously make a case that they can win today's race. In a really contentious race, contender's with ML's of 10 and 12 can be worth a look.

You can't buck the probabilities of racing too much. I do not believe you can make a consistent profit playing 2 lower priced contenders to win like maybe you could in the 80's. Simply too much room for error on a daily basis and the prices just don't compensate. If you could find a 1 horse lower priced contender methodology, you might be able to profit.

All my experience-yours may differ.
lsosa54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2010, 12:03 PM   #3
lsosa54
Grade 1
 
lsosa54's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
As a simple example, take a look at Richie's Indiana Downs thread in the Matcher's section. The 1st two ML favorites in an 8 furlong race were both sprinters whom in their last 10 races, showed no race longer than 6.5 furlongs. Can they win a route? Maybe, but as favorites, that's a chink in the armor. Add pace and race shape considerations, and the chinks grow larger.
lsosa54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Live Play Churchill Mother's Day pktruckdriver Selections 17 05-09-2010 05:25 PM
HP Sunday kinda live play pktruckdriver Selections 17 04-25-2010 08:25 PM
The Match-Up After Six Months mamojica Matchup Discussion 4 10-04-2009 10:53 PM
What makes a solid single play? pktruckdriver Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 17 07-30-2009 06:28 PM
American Oaks triumph for Hat's marathon Spot Play Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 2 07-06-2009 06:18 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:14 PM.