SAR 7/29 Race 5 - Pace and Cap

Ted Craven · 07-29-2015, 02:03 PM

Hypnotist asked my opinion of this race. Here it is:

Too many Early horses. The #8 could be a 'fast sprinter' (which often beat 'slow routers') but she's only ever had the 1 race, an open lead, and we don't know how she faces pressure or how fast she can go and have gas left for a further 2.5 furlongs today. And the #5 can best her at both early calls AND in a route, though also at open lengths. When pressured last year, it folded. In my view, toss ALL the Earlies for win, which is what the grouping in the screen shot shows.

Thus the best OTEs: 12-4-9 in BL order. The #12 had trouble in both its last 2 races but made nice closing moves in each, and against a serious fast PoR in its 2nd line (chosen).

Maybe the #8 has something special to show, and maybe the tote will tell us something (Hypnotist likes the tote, and so do I). Maybe at ML = 30-1, a nice WPS dutch catches some fire, or underneath the Exacta. But I would not invest much just yet.

Thus: Win 12-4, use the 9 in an Exacta.

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Good luck! More hopefully when tote info available.

Comments welcomed ...!

Ted

Ted Craven · 07-29-2015, 03:18 PM

Tote at 0 MTP

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.

Ted Craven · 07-29-2015, 03:24 PM

Ohhh, horrible tumble in the stretch by jockey Manny Franco

Last I could see and hear, he was sitting up, conscious and talking.

Ted Craven · 07-29-2015, 03:32 PM

Result: 9-10-7

wilbur porter · 07-29-2015, 11:25 PM

Ted, Good workout of the race.
I love these Turf races and there is often the chance of a good payoff here with your #12 going off at 9 to 1. It's easy to say this in hindsight but I might have passed this one as five of your eleven horses made strong moves (per Jim Lehane"s Calibration "red line") and though there was so much early pace, there seemed to be too many late closing lines here to wager on a OTE to "win". To me these type of races sometimes set up for an "early" OTE to win with your later closers right behind. In this case your #9, the earliest of the OTEs was the winner with a respectable payoff, and the other deep closer was right behind. I would have lost.

07-29-2015, 03:18 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Tote at 0 MTP . __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-29-2015 at 03:22 PM.

07-29-2015, 03:24 PM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Ohhh, horrible tumble in the stretch by jockey Manny Franco Last I could see and hear, he was sitting up, conscious and talking. __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-29-2015 at 03:32 PM.

07-29-2015, 03:32 PM	#4
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Result: 9-10-7 __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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07-29-2015, 02:03 PM	#1
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	SAR 7/29 Race 5 Hypnotist asked my opinion of this race. Here it is: Too many Early horses. The #8 could be a 'fast sprinter' (which often beat 'slow routers') but she's only ever had the 1 race, an open lead, and we don't know how she faces pressure or how fast she can go and have gas left for a further 2.5 furlongs today. And the #5 can best her at both early calls AND in a route, though also at open lengths. When pressured last year, it folded. In my view, toss ALL the Earlies for win, which is what the grouping in the screen shot shows. Thus the best OTEs: 12-4-9 in BL order. The #12 had trouble in both its last 2 races but made nice closing moves in each, and against a serious fast PoR in its 2nd line (chosen). Maybe the #8 has something special to show, and maybe the tote will tell us something (Hypnotist likes the tote, and so do I). Maybe at ML = 30-1, a nice WPS dutch catches some fire, or underneath the Exacta. But I would not invest much just yet. Thus: Win 12-4, use the 9 in an Exacta. Good luck! More hopefully when tote info available. Comments welcomed ...! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

07-29-2015, 11:25 PM	#5
wilbur porter AlwNW3X Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 42	Ted, Good workout of the race. I love these Turf races and there is often the chance of a good payoff here with your #12 going off at 9 to 1. It's easy to say this in hindsight but I might have passed this one as five of your eleven horses made strong moves (per Jim Lehane"s Calibration "red line") and though there was so much early pace, there seemed to be too many late closing lines here to wager on a OTE to "win". To me these type of races sometimes set up for an "early" OTE to win with your later closers right behind. In this case your #9, the earliest of the OTEs was the winner with a respectable payoff, and the other deep closer was right behind. I would have lost. __________________ OM