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Old 06-01-2016, 01:17 PM   #1
lone speed
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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Concepts win races

Concepts win races.....the program only reinforces the correct concepts or it teaches us the right concepts on "how most races are won."

The current software shortens the time span for easy evaluation of concepts....


Which contender can get a easy early pace lead and therefore; steal the race from the "pre-conceived" top contender with the best final time.


There are many contenders for the early pace in today's match-up according to the program's early pace evaluations after entering "viable pacelines." Therefore; using the program to evaluate which contender is situated best to take advantage of the matchup scenario.


In today's match-up, the #1 designated E/EP contender does not control the first fraction of the match-up. This contender is labeled the #1 designated E/EP by the program because it has the best cumulative first two early fractions. It might have a slow first fraction followed by a strong 2nd fraction thus it is designated #1 E/EP ranking. The "true main contenders" are those up front on the early pace of today's match-up.


In other scenarios, if one enters a negative class dropper or non-viable pace lines for today's match-up; it will distort the evaluations.


Due to form cycle issues, the pacelines entered were correct but the horse might have peaked or might "bounce" off a huge effort race. In other races, the contenders selected were prepping for a major race ahead of today's race. Selected pacelines and the program's match-up evaluations were correct but today was not the "objective" race. Trainers are known to "darken" the horse's form to get better weight assignments and better odds. ( say it ain't so....)

Other factors that might distort the match-up analyses are pacelines from any off tracks like a wet track or a muddy track; and races evaluated incorrectly by the designated speed numbers and/or variants. We still haven't discuss the troubled trips and post position draws....Indeed, a challenging game we have all chosen.

These factors can have an impact on our own human psyche which is the main reason that Howard Sartin suggested betting two horses to win. There are others who might disagreed with "two horse betting" but more importantly "play the odds"......

Last edited by Ted Craven; 06-02-2016 at 04:05 PM. Reason: ... relocated from a previous location ...
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Old 06-02-2016, 02:10 AM   #2
Mark
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Lone Speed

We had an exchange about Jim Bradshaw's 2 for 1 hypothesis a while back. In my readings I came across this post by "The Hat" and it bears on that conversation:
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As with most everything Jim said or wrote there was a context to it. In the case of an unchallenged E horse 2 for 1 may have found its expression in a full credit of the slower 1st fraction to the final time. But in cases where you are dealing with a EP, P or SP horse or when there is fighting going on, those units of energy gained can be consumed as he writes in this post from 2006.
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Old 06-02-2016, 03:30 PM   #3
lone speed
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Open mind to open discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark View Post
We had an exchange about Jim Bradshaw's 2 for 1 hypothesis a while back. In my readings I came across this post by "The Hat" and it bears on that conversation:
Attachment 40771
As with most everything Jim said or wrote there was a context to it. In the case of an unchallenged E horse 2 for 1 may have found its expression in a full credit of the slower 1st fraction to the final time. But in cases where you are dealing with a EP, P or SP horse or when there is fighting going on, those units of energy gained can be consumed as he writes in this post from 2006.

Mark,

Like many here have posted, I valued your message posts and the sincere contributions that you have posted. In that spirit, I hope we are on the same page in the spirit of contributions of our individual understanding and our individual interpretations of the Sartin/Bradshaw materials that we have read and studied.

You wrote two sentences in the above posts....

In your first sentence, I agreed 100% in its entirety as it relates to an early pace contender who will have the early lead uncontested. A lone early speed runner in the matchup.

In your second sentence, ( I hope I interpret it correctly) It reflects a "different scenario where the early runner has to contest for the lead and gained position. I will use Nyquist in this year Preakness stakes to use as a perfect example of this sentence. I will also like to use the 1987 Santa Anita Handicap because it shows two perfect examples of this scenario.

In the 1987 Santa Anita Handicap, Snow Chief had won the Strub Stakes against Ferdinand at a mile and 1/4 on dirt. We all know that Ferdinand had won the previous year Kentucky Derby from far off the wicked early pace against Snow Chief and Broad Brush. Snow Chief was compromised in the early pace with wicked early fractions set by a top sprinter Groovy. So the 1987 Santa Anita was a huge rematch of these three runners with more than 67,000 people in attendance at the "great race place." ( I like to comment that I was there in attendance prior to my exposure to the Sartin Methodology.)


In the Big Cap, trainer Charlie Whittingham had cross-entered a fast early pace runner, Epidaurus with the full intention of softening up Ferdinand's nemesis, Snow Chief. In their previous match race, Snow Chief won the Strub Stakes by wiring the field.

In the early pace of the Big Cap, Epidaurus did "soften up" Snow Chief, but jockey Bill Shoemaker made a bold early move and went 4 wide into the home stretch overtaking the lead from Snow Chief. Snow Chief faltered from the early pace battle with Epidaurus. Ferdinand ran out of his normal position "far off the early pace" and used up valuable energy staying up close to Snow Chief. Broad Brush nailed Ferdinand by the smallest of noses at the finish line. Great epic battle in the 50 th running of the Santa Anita Handicap.

Here is a link to a video of that race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAEZ-QRAts8

Since we are quoting Jim Bradshaw; here are a couple of his message posts.

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Here is another message post that Bradshaw reiterated about "for every early unit of energy used early affects the "finish" by two units.

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In this post, we can interpret what happened in this year's Preakness Stakes and what if's ???? If the trainer, Doug O'Neill had not instructed his jockey on Nyquist to take the lead at all cost and "take it to them", "maybe Nyquist would had won the Preakness. This is not to take side between Exaggerator and Nyquist; as Exaggerator deservedly won the Preakness.
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In the Kentucky Derby, Nyquist lay second behind Danzing Candy off a very fast early fractions: 22.58 for the first 2 furlongs or 22.3(fifths) and 45.72 for the first 4 furlongs on a track labeled very fast on the entire race cards.

In the Derby, Nyquist laid behind second at the 2 furlong marker about a 1/2 length behind fractions of 22.3(fifths) and did not overtake the early pace leader until the mile marker of the Derby.

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In the Preakness, Nyquist went head and head; fighting for the early pace lead with Uncle Lino against a 2 furlong fraction of 22.38 or 22.2(fifths) and overtook the early pace lead at the 4 furlong marker of the Preakness. Thus according to Jim Bradshaw's second quote above, Nyquist went one tick faster (22.2 for Preakness versus 22.3 for Derby) and "expended energy" gaining position by overtaking the lead at the 4 furlong marker, therefore expending two units of energy early in the Preakness.

According to Bradshaw's second sentence of the second quote; if Nyquist expended two units of energy early, it will cost Nyquist 4 units at the finish. In the Kentucky Derby, Nyquist beat Exaggerator who had a troubled trip. In the Preakness, Exaggerator bested Nyquist by 3 and 1/2 lengths at the finish line after going 6 wide into the stretch. Almost 4 units of energy......
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Old 06-02-2016, 04:48 PM   #4
Mark
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Interpreting Jim Bradshaw

The point i am trying to make is that I felt that Jim's meaning in his 2 for 1 hypothesis is that the extra energy expended or reserved in the 1st fraction was transferred to the final fraction 2 for 1. All of the experience that I have tends to prove this. What I have tried to do is reconcile the words which were said in context to specific examples in most cases and the charting of deceleration which he did by hand for 1000s of races and later had programmed into Kgen and Thoromation along with my own observations. The quotes that you post are not definitive in my view. Jim states that the result of this exertion will be seen "in the end" or by counting the number of beaten lengths. In a race the cause will have its effect in the race not when the race is over. Deceleration is the result of exertion. Too much exertion early leads to faster deceleration which results in a final time. The final time is the result of the dynamics of the race. Besides that I could never find an example where it worked that out properly, that is applying 2 times the energy expended or reserved resulted in a final time increased or decreased by that much. but you see every day horses going to the lead running faster than they have shown capable or fighting through the first two fractions just falling apart in the final fraction.
So I guess my intent was to supply a counterbalance to several of your statements for those that may be interested in the Match Up and may interpret you literally.
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Old 06-02-2016, 07:29 PM   #5
lone speed
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Mark ...

I am well versed with the significance of energy and energy in motion as I have taken courses in Physics. In the past, I have been blessed to work with an associate on "energy numbers" that focused on early pace expenditures and deceleration that did not focused on the final speed figures but on "energy expenditures." "Energy expenditure" can give one a better picture on form cycles but one must incorporate Sartin's programs and Bradshaw's Match-up concepts in my humble opinion. I have no devious intention of posting materials if it can not be proven nor will I engage in a protracted debate.

Maybe you can share some examples of the experiences to prove otherwise Bradshaw's hypothesis that the energy is transposed to the final fraction and not at the final times.

As complicated it may seem of Bradshaw's and Huey Mahl's assertion of energy lost or conserved. It can be described and put forth with a simple elementary math equation.

(X)change in 1st fraction>>(X)change in "original 2nd fraction" >> (final time)+/-net changes in first two fractions combined


Where X equals change in units of energy or in our horse racing parameter: change in ticks of energy where one tick equals one fifth.


I am more than okay if you wrote of the opinion that it is "not definitive" as we can start a thread to provide examples of this "hypothesis" and let readers come to their own conclusions. I agree with you that there are not much materials to support these hypothesis as it has been left to the readers to digest and to dissect the materials. This situation is similar to the many Sartin programs that we have purchased in the past that came without a detailed instruction manual.

Last edited by lone speed; 06-02-2016 at 07:41 PM. Reason: changed wording
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