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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-28-2019, 11:23 AM   #71
Mitch44
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Thanks Tom and I wish you great success with RDSS. Things are forever changing in this world so it behooves one to remain current. I'm not about to go backwards to when I started with a handheld computer. Again good handicapping.


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Old 06-28-2019, 02:00 PM   #72
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I would advise beginners not to keep a track model or profile.
Regardless of how we started out Bill things have changed, and through the great research of Sartin he changed also. We should adapt. We also should adapt and overcome to take advantage of all his hard work to get more winners, which was Sartin's goal.

Yes most certainly Sartin grew after years of trials and testing. And those testers provided valuable insights that were tested, thankfully he left with the best. We reap the rewards of all that hard work. Sartin said; "it took me over 20 years to perfect the deceleration formula."

Your right where Doc says he reviews the previous days results, however where does he say he recommends that we do the same? He also was smart enough to check POW not POH times, which most would do.

In my post I did say that keeping track of 3rd FR can be beneficial however its not a necessity. If one wants to waste their time their free to do that.

"Never depend on someone else's E-L Model Graph along with the other graphs and readouts." pg. 30 Fu # 86. The reason is their choice of contenders and pace lines may be different than yours. Use only your own when it wins or finishes close. "

pg. 30 FU # 86 " However, for those with any degree of short term anxiety, the E-L Graph, along with the other graphs and key readouts, are most useful for separating Ties, helping users of all our advance programs make correct decisions." No model or track profile is needed for this, the result of the facts on these screen are a result of your contenders and pace line chosen and the Match-Up within that data you supplied.

That data is carefully weighted not averaged. Averaging makes the best look worse and the worse look better. Somewhat like the Bell curve. The reason there is such a disparity with your Model Bill on E-L is that each race is different with a different set of horses and in essence a different Match-Up.

As I said tracking 3rd FR does have some merit as it'll show horses that decelerate too fast to be a winner. Also % Med properly used and the match up as employed, shows and accounts for all this and is within the ratings. While not necessary to track I believe it will though give some insight to those that don't understand deceleration. Note: See my post on deceleration.

Bill I hope you have a big weekend and slay them. Lots of good racing this weekend.

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Old 06-28-2019, 07:39 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by tom View Post
Bill, thanks for a really good lesson in modeling!
I always admire your thoroughness and professionalism in your handicapping.

Doc would be proud of you!

This has been a very good thread - always nice to revisit the FUs and look at the materiall from a newer perspective. Thanks to Mitch as well.
That is really nice of you Tom

Yes Mitch is doing a great service and is a very good teacher
It is great to follow along, and reread the follow-up

When I feel stronger I will post some more data from my model down in Phase 1/ TPR forum.

Hope to see you at Saratoga,

Good Skill
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Old 06-30-2019, 01:17 PM   #74
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FU # 56 Form Cycle Analysis

The x and o's go back to the early 1980's and are in the Yellow Manuel. It was considered a fast, simple,and highly effective procedure to analyze the form of a horse.

Form is one the most important handicapping factors that tends to be ignored, any high ranking in a factor is worthless if the horse isn't properly placed as to distance, surface and is in form. Essentially they use the program or any program as a black box ignoring one of the most important factors in horse racing.

Not only is it one of the most important factors, its also the hardest to evaluate. Someone once said; " Its like trying to nail jelly to a tree." Perhaps the difficulty and inability of the player is why it gets ignored and places the black box approach in vogue. It is a learned skill but there are tools we can use to make us more proficient in this task.

Taulbot said; "Every race a horses runs it is either improving or declining in form." Therefore the last race is extremely important as to a horses condition. Sartin said the last race should always be evaluated for form or condition.

In the program Valuator Sartin started experimenting with rating each line and had a user select lines and then hit the F6 key, each race would be evaluated making life easer to access the form of a horse and picking a line. Initially this was rather crude, the Preceptor was born from this concept. It was refined by adjusting the distance of each race to todays distance,also using the 7 Primary Factors and finally matching up each race with the Match Up against itself to determine which race was best.

Something impossible to do without a computer because of all the math involved which would be prone to mistakes and forever to do by hand.

When it comes to form one could still use the old X and O's but why waste time, be prone to error when this is already done for you in the present-day RDSS.

Additionally the Preceptor is the best tool for picking the correct pace line ever devised. Also within RDSS each race is rated for Total Energy which is another way to evaluate the form of a horse, one can easily see if the Tot. En. is increasing or decreasing. Lastly the Pace of the Race (POR) is also given for each race. All of this is on the Original Screen of the horse.

Every program of Sartin's was an improvement over the last. Some thought he was just interested in selling programs and ruled by the almighty dollar, but the evolution of the computer and more memory placed much of this on a fast track.

pg.22 "As you view sample races you will note that while we do often use a contender's last line, when justified, we will just as often go back several races, when appropriate." In short, they zig and zag, altering their procedure after each loss,only to discover too late that it would have proved successful in the next race had they stuck with it. Procedural inconsistency has been the bane of handicappers for generations." Not only does this apply to pace line selection it also applies to contender selection as well. Even with all this you'll probably lose one out of three races.

Form cycle analysis also helps you to detect NTL horses, suspicious dropdowns etc. It will increase one's winning percentage's and your results will improve greatly. I go back and forth from the original screen of a contender to the Bris PP's because the Bris PP's give me additional information not found in the TrackMaster PP's.
I also evaluate form in the Bris PP's. This combination of analysis allows me to downgrade contenders or completely disregard them, greatly increasing my win percentage.

There are other ways I evaluate form as there are several ways, generally I use several. I strongly suggest you find one or two and employ it. Sartin gave you some with Preceptor, Total Energy and POR for every race within a horses chart. Ignore it at your own peril.

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Old 06-30-2019, 03:10 PM   #75
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A real saver

Many thanks, Mitch

This one is a real saver for me and for all who want to get on that road toward winning. A+ Save this and learn well

Bless you
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Old 06-30-2019, 03:44 PM   #76
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This is a most important post. One must not only be able to pick contenders and representative pacelines but one needs to be consistent in their routine. As Mitch points out you can't panic because you lose a few races in a row. As long as you are sure that you made no errors in contender or paceline selection and if you have established a consistent approach that you are winning with you will be ok.
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Old 07-01-2019, 02:15 PM   #77
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Great thread. Thanks Mitch et al for sharing your knowledge freely.



Should be a sticky so it doesn't get buried as time goes by.
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Old 07-03-2019, 10:26 AM   #78
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FU # 57



The first part of this we have previously discussed.

Pg. 16 "Mark shares my view on what is really the most important factor in successful handicapping." Note: These Follow Ups " Once Again from the top" were all written by Sartin himself,all quotes are from him unless otherwise stated. Mark refers to Mark Cramer,who on pg. 17 states;" Even a computer whiz like Howard Sartin has declared in public and has written on various occasions,that the inspiration factor is what separates winners from underachievers."

To those that never met Sartin his educational field was Psychology and in many of the Follow Up's he published articles titled; " The Psychology of Winning." Additionally he published a manual by the same name, which was;"AN INTRODUCTION TO WIN THERAPY." I'm proud to have a copy of that, not sure if this is the library here at P & C. However the articles appear throughout the Follow Ups. These are most likely the less referenced or read of any of his writings. I suspect most think,I didn't buy a program for this crap.

Around 1963 while bored in the barracks at Ft. Campbell I borrowed a book from a book worm titled; Psycho-Cybernetics by Maxwell Maltz. The meaning is Greek for steersman of the mind.The gist of it is the visualization by the mind to accomplish something such as hitting a golf ball with the perfect swing or making a basket from a foul line. As an example 30 minutes of this would equal actually doing it on a driving range or in the gym. Many professional athletes today use it.

Most just don't realize the power of the mind and how our thoughts can direct our success. The power of positive thoughts verses negative thoughts that lurk within us. This is very self evident in elite military units which allows them to excel and accomplish things that the common soldier can't and an attitude that exists in many successful people. "The most important factor." Very strongly I say,don't underestimate it.

Pg. 18 "Perhaps he's been infected with the old "Beyer" syndrome that confuses pace itself with Early Pace." "And PACE is not Early Pace." Pace considers the whole race and all three Fractions. Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw understood this right from the beginning with Sartin as he was a H.S. track coach, and talk about someone being zoned in at the track, Jimmy was the perfect example.

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Last edited by Mitch44; 07-03-2019 at 10:31 AM.
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Old 07-03-2019, 01:27 PM   #79
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Manual

Here you go Mitch

From the Sartin Library
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4277
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Old 07-03-2019, 03:51 PM   #80
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Thanks ever so much for posting the link to The Psychology of Winning Bill, now beginners and other can easily find it.


Pg. 6 " Only a small part of the conversion from loser to winner lies in the handicapping process, method, system or procedure. The true essence lies within the psyche of the handicapper."


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