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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 12-31-2018, 01:47 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
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Santa Anita is running pretty chalky

So far in the first four days of racing the top four odds choices have won 36 of 39 races!!!

Odds on horses have won 5 of 11 races.

The top four odds horses have won 25 of 39 exactas and only one paid in three figures because two horses basically tied as 4th odds choice finished 1-2. Most of the exactas paid less than $15 and a lot were under $10.

I am playing horizontally for small amounts.
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Old 01-01-2019, 11:31 AM   #2
Bill V.
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Horses

Happy New Year Bill

Yes indeed, also the track is running very much EARLY
So far for older sprinters look for % med at between 68.50 to 69.25
For older Routers 68.01 68.50
For older Routers 66.25 to 66.80

Best of skill

BIll
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Old 01-01-2019, 11:40 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
So far in the first four days of racing the top four odds choices have won 36 of 39 races!!! (Actually 37 of 39!!!)

Odds on horses have won 5 of 11 races.

The top four odds horses have won 25 of 39 exactas and only one paid in three figures because two horses basically tied as 4th odds choice finished 1-2. Most of the exactas paid less than $15 and a lot were under $10.

I am playing horizontally for small amounts.
After day 5:

43/47 top four final odds win

30/47 exactas include the top four final odds

No change in the odds on - 5/11 win

Last edited by Bill Lyster; 01-01-2019 at 11:42 AM. Reason: stat chg
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:08 AM   #4
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Defining my terms

Just for the record, for this study i am considering any horse going off at 1.10/1 as odds on;

1) because at 1.1 the odds board would show even money odds;
2) no telling what the odds were one minute from post time

I am using odds from the race charts. So if a horse is 2/1 and another is 2.3/1, both of these horses would record as tied unless you were in a place to be able to see the exact amounts bet to win on each horse. Of course if one horse was 2/1 and the other 2.5/1 one would be ranked higher than the other.

Captain Obvious signing off....
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:49 AM   #5
Bill Lyster
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SA day six and some GP

At SA the top four betting choices have won 49/57 races - 86% and have figured in 35/58 - 60% of all exactas. "Odds on" have won 5/12 for you horizontal players.

At GP since 12/19818 - 13 race cards
The top four betting choices have won 109/136 races - 80% and have figured in 72/136 exactas - 53%. Odds on = 21/32. But there have been a lot of high teens winners and place horses and some great exactas and place prices if you can figure it out.

I used to keep morning line stats and they can be telling, but you need to know who is doing them and if they change line makers from meet to meet. Some are much better than others.

A couple of years ago, the GP line maker hit something like 89% of his top four choices as winners, whereas other tracks line makers hit about 75+%.

I have nothing current on this having been focused on top four final odds horses.

Much good luck to you all.

Last edited by Bill Lyster; 01-04-2019 at 11:50 AM. Reason: added odds on info
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Old 01-09-2019, 10:19 AM   #6
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As on January 6th races

SA 75/85 top 4 betting final odds win: 88%; 56/85 top four win exactas, 6/15 Odds on choices win.

GP - 132/168 top 4 win - 79%; 92/168 top four exactas - 55% 25/41 Odds on - 61%;
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