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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 06-09-2019, 01:20 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Some Sunday fulcrums

In race 2 from Monmouth, This is the fulcrum, however, it is suspect
The 95 looks aberrant, There is also the 6 horse who is also possible over adjusted with a 101 EPR from line 1 from PRX

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Old 06-09-2019, 01:42 PM   #2
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Race 3

The 3rd race sees horse 6 as the fulcrum with a solid 94.9 EPR

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Old 06-09-2019, 02:06 PM   #3
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The 6

The #6 horse was about 2.5 beaten lengths behind a 45.63-second call
The 3 took control and wins

and I hit my pick 3 single

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Old 06-09-2019, 02:35 PM   #4
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Round out

The 6 is the fulcrum in race 5

The 2 9 and 6 looks solid

I have them along with the 4 8 as longshots in my Pick 3


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Old 06-09-2019, 02:59 PM   #5
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Chalk

The fulcrum 6 could not catch the chalky winner # 2
The fulcrum horse places as is a very common occurrence.

My pick 3 comes back short but I made a profit

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Old 06-09-2019, 03:07 PM   #6
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3 with 678

I am heading back west to the coast, In race 8 it is a very close call between horse 1c and 7


I will go with the guidelines and use the 1 as my fulcrum with an 87 EPR

My pick 3 starts with 6 and 10

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Old 06-09-2019, 04:03 PM   #7
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Santa Anita

Race 1 fulcrum

#9
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Old 06-09-2019, 04:07 PM   #8
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No

The 9 could not compete off the 44-day layoff and a 112.52 pace
was never a factor
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Old 06-09-2019, 04:20 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
I am heading back west to the coast, In race 8 it is a very close call between horse 1c and 7


I will go with the guidelines and use the 1 as my fulcrum with an 87 EPR

My pick 3 starts with 6 and 10

Attachment 48176
The Fulcrum #1 wins and pays 11/1
]

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Old 06-09-2019, 06:11 PM   #10
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Bafferts

I think Bob Baffert's # 5 MClaimer is in trouble here because of the fulcrum #3


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