Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-09-2017, 09:32 PM   #1
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,209
Are most races paceless?

Currently there is a thread in the match up section focusing on paceless races. If I understand it correctly, the idea is to find races where no horse has ever been on the lead at the first call in any race listed in their PP’s. In the alternative, perhaps just one horse has been on the lead at the first call in just one of its’ races. Obviously, either of these scenarios constitutes a paceless race, but are these the ONLY scenarios that constitute a paceless race?

Obviously, you have to start with what constitutes and early horse. When you look at a race, what do you look for in order to determine if a horse is early and will challenge for the lead today?

Let’s look at one example. A few of the paceless races in the match up area have been won either wire to wire or 2nd to wire. These winners will return in other races. Off of their last winning race, would you consider them an early horse? Keep in mind that there will be no indication that the horse beat a paceless field of horses in its’ last race. Since all you will know is that it won in early fashion, will you consider it an early horse and capable of challenging for the lead in today’s race?

I think it would be helpful, to all, if as many people as possible offer their view. Feel free to be as specific as you can in presenting your approach.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 09:08 AM   #2
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 1,963
FTL,

Several things come to mind resulting from this post.

First and foremost is the way a large percentage of maidens win their first race. If the PPs show the maiden race win it is often wire to wire or near wire to wire, so you should look to see what race position the horse adopts subsequent to the win to get a better understanding of its true running style.

In non maiden races sometimes you will see a dedicated P, SP or S reverse form and go out on an early lead, only to lose easily. This could be an experiment, but it also might have been a true paceless race - where the closest to the lead freaked and faded. I have observed that often times these races might show higher total energy than what was earned in previous off the pace races. I do not use these races unless there is a pattern that shows the horse progressively getting closer to the lead in the race leading up to that effort. I have been fooled in the past thinking that if the horse was a true Presser that it could run behind today's race pace setter a number of lengths to match the delta between today's pace and the race where the horse failed on the lead. Does not seem to work.

Somewhat similar to both of the above would be any race among veteran starters where race fractions appear slow, but where race positioning puts the horse in position at the top of the stretch. Perhaps the key here might be lower TE than normal which still results in a win.

You can always look at the energy screen in the PPs and the E/L graph to see if the horse is doing something different or if race conditions conspired to 'make the horse's day'.
Bill Lyster is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 11:40 AM   #3
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,270
Well I guess I better chime in since I am running the paceless race experiment.

I would offer that there is no such thing as a paceless race. There will be a pace however reluctant. Qualifying these races as paceless involves a quick scan of first fractions for 1's. That means that no horse has been on a lead at the first call in any race in their PP's. (One ancient 1st for one horse is acceptable). This puts the race in the ballpark of what we are looking for. We can't see further back where there may in fact be some early action. But this is what we have.

With this we are involved in the creme de la creme of possible paceless races. Sometimes somebody steps up and wires. Many times somebody steps up and fails providing cover for those in their comfortable positions. There are other races with certain subtleties that could also be considered as this type of race. But I haven't the desire in this experiment to hunt them out.

When a horse runs again who wired a paceless race field I don't think you could consider him early based on one event. The odds of him entering another similar race type are low. Mostly all races have early pace evident in the PP's.

Pook
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 12:24 PM   #4
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
FTL,

Several things come to mind resulting from this post.

First and foremost is the way a large percentage of maidens win their first race. If the PPs show the maiden race win it is often wire to wire or near wire to wire, so you should look to see what race position the horse adopts subsequent to the win to get a better understanding of its true running style.

In non maiden races sometimes you will see a dedicated P, SP or S reverse form and go out on an early lead, only to lose easily. This could be an experiment, but it also might have been a true paceless race - where the closest to the lead freaked and faded. I have observed that often times these races might show higher total energy than what was earned in previous off the pace races. I do not use these races unless there is a pattern that shows the horse progressively getting closer to the lead in the race leading up to that effort. I have been fooled in the past thinking that if the horse was a true Presser that it could run behind today's race pace setter a number of lengths to match the delta between today's pace and the race where the horse failed on the lead. Does not seem to work.

Somewhat similar to both of the above would be any race among veteran starters where race fractions appear slow, but where race positioning puts the horse in position at the top of the stretch. Perhaps the key here might be lower TE than normal which still results in a win.

You can always look at the energy screen in the PPs and the E/L graph to see if the horse is doing something different or if race conditions conspired to 'make the horse's day'.
Thanks Bill, you make good points. As you apply these points in your day to day handicapping, do you find that most races;

1 – have a legitimate pace scenario, or
2 – do not have a legitimate pace scenario

What characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 12:25 PM   #5
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,209
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
Well I guess I better chime in since I am running the paceless race experiment.

I would offer that there is no such thing as a paceless race. There will be a pace however reluctant. Qualifying these races as paceless involves a quick scan of first fractions for 1's. That means that no horse has been on a lead at the first call in any race in their PP's. (One ancient 1st for one horse is acceptable). This puts the race in the ballpark of what we are looking for. We can't see further back where there may in fact be some early action. But this is what we have.

With this we are involved in the creme de la creme of possible paceless races. Sometimes somebody steps up and wires. Many times somebody steps up and fails providing cover for those in their comfortable positions. There are other races with certain subtleties that could also be considered as this type of race. But I haven't the desire in this experiment to hunt them out.

When a horse runs again who wired a paceless race field I don't think you could consider him early based on one event. The odds of him entering another similar race type are low. Mostly all races have early pace evident in the PP's.

Pook
Hello POOK,

I guess the best way to say this is….in some races the pace scenario is straight forward, in other races it is not. What I am trying to get at here is, how does one determine if the race has a straight forward, or legitimate, pace scenario?

In your post you said,”Mostly all races have early pace evident in the PP's.”
What do you look for in order to make that determination?

Like I asked Bill L., what characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 07:54 PM   #6
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,270
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
Hello POOK,
Like I asked Bill L., what characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?
FTL,

I simply look for red. (Or is it orange?) I look for it on the Entries screen and then in the horses PP's. As you know I am a visual Matchup guy so I don't look at numbers at first. If I see at least one horse with red and maybe some green concentrated in the top left of the PP's I know there is pace. That is why I say that most races have pace. Most races have this look. How much of it and what it means has to then be determined. Others with green and yellow can be part of it but I look for red first. Absence of red leaves the lonely pace-less ones. Sad little affairs really. Kind of like all the wall flowers at a party being forced to assert themselves.

An example from today.

Pook
Attached Images
  
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 04:31 AM   #7
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,209
WOW!
What did the other 4 horses in this 5 horse field look like?
The #3 horse was only able to beat one horse to the first call.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 07:40 AM   #8
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
WOW!
What did the other 4 horses in this 5 horse field look like?
The #3 horse was only able to beat one horse to the first call.
Notice the 2nd and 4th races back. Horse seems to have lost some of its "gate speed". Horse was also a perfect X - O horse in its last 10 races. In today's race it was supposed to be a O race.

Track was listed as good for the first 4 races then upgraded to fast. It didn't look that bad although at least one jock kept his horses 2 to 3 paths off the rail even while on the lead. Favorites came thru on the rail to beat them in the last 16th easily.

I was upset (slightly) in the 5th race were with one minute to post, the odds board no longer showing while they were starting to load, and the BIG favorite at 1:9 and all others double digit odds and 50+k in the show pool, I put in a $2 show on the other 5 horses. The favorite breaks bad (good for me) and then rushes up to contend for the lead but tires in the stretch and gets passed, finishing 4th. But the late money skewed the odds and the only thing I can think off is the big early bet to win must have been pulled from the pool. The show payoffs were no where near what I thought I'd get.

Happy to win but disappointed in the payoff.

Ray
DontSayDont is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 01:00 PM   #9
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 1,963
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
Thanks Bill, you make good points. As you apply these points in your day to day handicapping, do you find that most races;

1 – have a legitimate pace scenario, or
2 – do not have a legitimate pace scenario

What characteristics must a horse demonstrate in order for you to consider it part of the pace scenario?
most appear to have legitimate pace, but understanding how the earlies react to that pace has been problematical.

I tend to use Brohamer's guidelines of close up at 2C or stretch and within so many lengths depending on the distance of the race (and then compare to see if it is close to the projected pace) . Still have problems with horses dropping when the guidelines are blown (and thereby defaulting to the race at or near todays class for rating purposes)
Bill Lyster is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 03:30 PM   #10
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
most appear to have legitimate pace, but understanding how the earlies react to that pace has been problematical.

I tend to use Brohamer's guidelines of close up at 2C or stretch and within so many lengths depending on the distance of the race (and then compare to see if it is close to the projected pace) . Still have problems with horses dropping when the guidelines are blown (and thereby defaulting to the race at or near todays class for rating purposes)
First, thanks for your response, Bill.

I like your concern with horses dropping down in class and how to rate them. I hate to get too far afield since this is off topic, but I think it is worth mentioning. More years ago than I care to think about, a guy taught me something I have never forgotten, and more importantly, a lesson that can be carried forward into other areas than just the one I will talk about.
Although you don’t see this scenario much anymore, back in those days in was not uncommon to see a horse with one race at the Maiden Special Weight level drop down in its’ next race to the $5,000 maiden claiming level. (As a side note, it is important for a horse to break its’ maiden as soon as possible.) The key to this drop in class was the horse’s first call in its’ only race. Purely as an example, let’s say the horse was 4th beaten 2 lengths at that first call. From there the horse would back up. That is all it would take for this horse to be a standout when it dropped down. In that $5,000 maiden claimer, this horse would fall out of the gate a couple of lengths in front and just go on to wire the field. There really isn’t any way to rate the horse at the second call, stretch call or at the finish. You could only be confident that the horse would get the job done. This was my introduction to just how important a class drop coupled with early speed can be, yet it is something that cannot be quantified. Bradshaw may have called this “voodoo”. I prefer to call it “knowledge”. Ok, on to the topic at hand.

As I read your response it occurred to me that I may not have made myself clear. Perhaps I should have said “EARLY pace scenario” rather than just pace scenario. The second call and stretch call are pretty far along. I wanted to focus on which horses will be contending for the lead at the first call and how each handicapper reaches that conclusion.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Paceless Races RichieP Matchup Discussion 161 10-21-2017 09:31 PM
20 Race Cycles - For Beginners and Old Alike Because I Can Jim Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) 1 04-13-2017 03:56 PM
Non winner of 2 lifetime races Bill Lyster General Discussion 21 06-29-2015 12:25 AM
8 Month Matchup Thread (Re-posted) Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 4 05-01-2015 05:02 PM
FTL - Race Conditions NeedForSpeed Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 15 06-17-2013 09:18 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:32 AM.