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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 11-20-2017, 04:59 PM   #1
Lt1
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Balance Numbers

Over the years Doc and others reminded us that horses that have a balance over8 are not likely to win. Here again I did a survey of 100 races based on my contender/pace line selections and the results are as follows.

Races winner with larger the 8 balance
100 12

Pretty much confirms what Doc stated. 9 of the 12 winners were in turf rces.
Tim
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Old 11-20-2017, 09:20 PM   #2
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Another great survey Tim. Those balanced numbers keep you off one run closers and false early horses that can't put together two good Fr's.
They can definitely can narrow a field.
Nice work Tim.
Mitch44
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Old 11-21-2017, 09:31 AM   #3
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Thanks Mitch. It just amazes me how many of the Docs' guidelines and missives still work today. For that matter a lot of older stuff from other authors such as Scott, The Dean Tom Ainsle still are valid and work today. In fact I use Scotts' form factors to upgrade or downgrade contenders. I made a few adjustment to adjust for todays racing.
TIM
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Old 11-22-2017, 03:13 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Over the years Doc and others reminded us that horses that have a balance over8 are not likely to win. Here again I did a survey of 100 races based on my contender/pace line selections and the results are as follows.

Races winner with larger the 8 balance
100 12

Pretty much confirms what Doc stated. 9 of the 12 winners were in turf rces.
Tim
Not sure how you use the balance number?
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Old 11-22-2017, 03:27 PM   #5
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Hi Charlie. As far as the balance numbers I look at them last and if a horse has a balance over 8 I downgrade it. I have found most of the horses with balances over 8 are usually not in my top 4 anyway, but if it is I would move it to #5, unless the 5th tiered horse is saddled with form defects in which case I leave it 4th but it would not be a win bet for me.
Tim
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Old 11-22-2017, 09:35 PM   #6
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Smile

Tim, it's a great tool to eliminate horse that can't win.

I use it religiously.

Great Post!

Mike
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Old 11-22-2017, 10:26 PM   #7
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Thank you

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Hi Charlie. As far as the balance numbers I look at them last and if a horse has a balance over 8 I downgrade it. I have found most of the horses with balances over 8 are usually not in my top 4 anyway, but if it is I would move it to #5, unless the 5th tiered horse is saddled
with form defects in which case I leave it 4th but it would not be a win bet for me.
Tim
I really appreciate your help. I go a long way back with Sartin and have returned to my roots. Doing quite well with the software, but nothing replaces a clear understanding of the total handicapping process.

Again thank you for all your help.
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Old 11-23-2017, 06:50 AM   #8
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Your welcome Charlie and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.
Tim
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Old 11-23-2017, 06:56 AM   #9
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Mike you are correct it is a wonderful tool in the final elimination process. I save it for last since I move or eliminate horses on other factors first and when doing that the balance numbers may change depending on horses you eliminate. Wishing your and your family a Happy Thanksgiving.
Tim
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Old 11-23-2017, 09:33 AM   #10
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Tim looks like were on the same page, I save it for last also.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Mike

P.S. Happy Thanksgiving for all who celebrate at Pace and Cap!!
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