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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 01-17-2018, 04:38 PM   #21
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
AS I said earlier I actually tried to bet this race but saw it too late and was shut out. I would have posted my bets and didn't have time to comment. My two horses were the 4 & 10 and I liked the 4 best. What I liked about the 4 was that every time it ran in a sprint it ran a big race. It obviously is a better sprinter than a router. Look at its POH Tot Energy. Why they keep entering it in routes is a mystery.



Additionally if you exam the # 10 Tot Enery POH you get a different picture of this horse than the man made class designations.
It would serve ( I believe) handicappers well to get away from these man made class designations as their fraught with many unknowns. Particularity with restricted races and where there is big casino purses. Sartin used Tot Energy, also there are better things such as CR or CR+.
My two horse bet would have compensated if the 10 didn't run well. I also thought the 10 would be on the lead so was surprised how he won. Either way its just another race and all this is only important if one has to play the race such as a contest etc. But based on everything and the odds for me it was a bet. Actually was surprised it went off at 7-2 and not the favorite.
Mitch 44
Actually, at 3.50/1, the #10 horse WAS the betting favorite.

In nine races showing, the #10 horse has never broke better than 4th and has never been on the lead at the first call.
In nine races showing, the #3 horse has never broke worse than 3rd, broke 1st 5 times and has been on the lead at the first call 4 times. I’m not surprised that the #3 horse was in front of the #10 horse.

Also, based on the #10’s horses last two races, at the two lowest class levels it has ever run for and breaking from the nine post, today’s race fit those races well. With better early speed inside of it, the #10 horse had its’ best break ever, breaking 3rd, got good position at the first call being 3rd just a length and a half behind, being 3rd at the second call behind by just 1 length and wore down the leader from there to earn a neck victory. A very nice “early presser” style race.

Finally, man doesn’t make class levels. Horses, based on their performances, make class levels.

A horse that constantly runs up the track for $10,000 and then runs good races when lowered to the $5,000 level is telling the trainer at which class level it runs best.

Understanding class levels, including conditions, is an important factor. I’m not aware of the many unknowns associated with class levels. I can see, however, where not understanding class levels and conditions might make one feel as though they were unknowns. My suggestion is this, if class levels and conditions are unknown to you, take the time to learn what they all mean.

State Bred races, as an example, are “restricted” races. They are restricted to horses bred in the state in which the race is being run. I think this is common knowledge. If these races are unknown factors for you, take the time to learn about them.

Philly Park (now PARX) used to run the “Gray Ghost Handicap” at Halloween. This was a “restricted” race. The restriction? Every horse entered had to be gray or roan. This was clearly stated right in the conditions.

Any “restricted” race has the restriction clearly stated in the conditions AND the race is noted as a restricted race in the PP’s.
What you need to know about restricted races is that they are lesser races. A $10,000 race that IS NOT restricted is better than a $10,000 race that IS restricted. Why? Because a restricted race is NOT OPEN to all who wish to enter, whereas a race that is not restricted IS OPEN to all who wish to enter. Therefore, the quality of a non-restricted race is better.

I can’t say anything about races with big casino purses, simply because I’m not sure which races they are. Here’s where I can learn something.
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Old 01-17-2018, 06:08 PM   #22
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
I love this game which requires the bet be made before the gates open. Its the difference of opinions that make this game or merry go round turn.


The understanding of the class factor which is a basic fundamental of this game can enhance the decision making process greatly. It also explains why horses run poorly or don't win at certain distances, surfaces and especially man made class designations.


I offered two better class concepts that outperform man made designations in my previous post that are contained within RDSS. POH and CR or CR+ It greatly helps to evaluate layoffs and dropdowns etc. That advice can be taken or ignored which is fine also.
Good skill,
Mitch44
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