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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 09-19-2017, 07:11 PM   #1
The Pook
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Join Date: Feb 2014
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"NO EARLY in OTE" PATTERN

Have any of my fellow matchers found success playing races with zero early speed? Like the kind that Richie P has been posting. You know, where no horse wants or has ever had a lead at the first call.

This is one thing I have been thinking of adding to my pattern arsenal but have been reluctant. It is difficult to project paces in these races. Do you project a pace or take a different approach? The idea is to try and find the horse that will reluctantly be on the lead, discard that one and maybe any that may be too close to the pace. Then go for those best positioned to take over.

There aren't many of these but I think I will make a serious effort to look for and play them. Maybe others have some ideas on whether these races are too chaotic, the hit rate is too low, or not worth the time or whatever. From what I've seen happen in Richie's OTE race posts they look promising with some good prices.

I would like to give it a few months and report back using what I think could work along with ideas that others have for this approach. I have had good success with other patterns over years and would like to add another. This particular one seems like it could be difficult but we will see.

Thanks for any insights,
Pook
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Old 09-19-2017, 08:11 PM   #2
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
Have any of my fellow matchers found success playing races with zero early speed? Like the kind that Richie P has been posting. You know, where no horse wants or has ever had a lead at the first call.

This is one thing I have been thinking of adding to my pattern arsenal but have been reluctant. It is difficult to project paces in these races. Do you project a pace or take a different approach? The idea is to try and find the horse that will reluctantly be on the lead, discard that one and maybe any that may be too close to the pace. Then go for those best positioned to take over.

There aren't many of these but I think I will make a serious effort to look for and play them. Maybe others have some ideas on whether these races are too chaotic, the hit rate is too low, or not worth the time or whatever. From what I've seen happen in Richie's OTE race posts they look promising with some good prices.

I would like to give it a few months and report back using what I think could work along with ideas that others have for this approach. I have had good success with other patterns over years and would like to add another. This particular one seems like it could be difficult but we will see.

Thanks for any insights,
Pook

Hello Pook,

Perhaps you might want to look at the two races that Richie posted and I processed through ENERGY.
There is "match up" information in that program.
Here's the link.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...t=11282&page=6
You will find the screen shots on pages 2 and 5.
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Old 09-20-2017, 08:11 AM   #3
The Pook
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Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
Hello Pook,

Perhaps you might want to look at the two races that Richie posted and I processed through ENERGY.
There is "match up" information in that program.
Here's the link.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...t=11282&page=6
You will find the screen shots on pages 2 and 5.
Thanks FTL. Yes I noticed those two races you did with the Energy program which comes from before my time. The first race with Cuddle Alert doesn't apply here because of the presence of early runners. I like the way you used it on the RP race.

Once you have your contenders you toss the leader. You variegate sustained and go with the top two sustained runners. I would interpret the same thing in RDSS as the two biggest blue bars in the PMTR screen. As shown. This involves no projecting of pace. I like that because with no definite early horse it is hard to do.

Thanks,
Pook
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Old 09-20-2017, 02:32 PM   #4
For The Lead
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Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
Thanks FTL. Yes I noticed those two races you did with the Energy program which comes from before my time. The first race with Cuddle Alert doesn't apply here because of the presence of early runners. I like the way you used it on the RP race.

Once you have your contenders you toss the leader. You variegate sustained and go with the top two sustained runners. I would interpret the same thing in RDSS as the two biggest blue bars in the PMTR screen. As shown. This involves no projecting of pace. I like that because with no definite early horse it is hard to do.

Thanks,
Pook
I don't want to take credit for something I didn't do.
I didn't toss the leader or variegate the race sustained, the ENERGY program did that.
I just followed the programs lead.
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Old 09-20-2017, 07:42 PM   #5
RichieP
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Hi Pook!
If you or anyone seeing this come across these race types with NOBODY going for the lead in their pps PLEASE post them in advance for us to look at. I (and many of you I am sure) just do not have the time needed to scan and find these(and other race types).

3 matching Earlies
NOBODY wants the lead - Paceless
FAST Sprinter going first time against routers

Thanx
Richie

PS - Tried this before with NO good coming from it but maybe we can make a "group" of matchers who can work together sharing the load "looking"
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Old 09-21-2017, 12:29 AM   #6
The Pook
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Hi Rich,

The three matching early horse races are more common than the other two and I play them all the time. Paceless, or a fast sprinter first time in a route race, I haven't actually been looking for.

I play two tracks a day and take the races as they come along about 15 minutes before post time so there is no room for posting here. However I could peruse a head of time in the morning or the evening before for a few tracks and look for the elusive paceless variety and maybe the first time router. These would be easier to spot doing a quick scan. Matching earlies requires running style designations which takes too much time.

I will see what I can find.

Pook
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Old 09-21-2017, 07:58 AM   #7
RichieP
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Good morning Pook
If its ok don't take any extra time on the other stuff. If a bunch of Matchers came on and said they were willing to chip in with time spent "looking" that would be another story but for now.........

Lets leave it alone and I will continue trying to find interesting races for us to look at.

Hope all is well with you and yours!
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Old 09-21-2017, 09:13 AM   #8
The Pook
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Richie it isn't too bad for time looking for the truly paceless race. There were some close candidates today. Most are maiden races where a lot of the lead shy horses reside. But nothing out of 14 tracks. I am interested in seeing how some of the other matchers do with these things. I will do this a day ahead so I will check for tomorrow.

Your posting of these types has piqued my interest and I think there could be something in these races that most don't understand or disregard.

Pook
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Old 09-21-2017, 09:21 AM   #9
RichieP
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Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
I will do this a day ahead so I will check for tomorrow.

Pook
Ill check for Saturday Pook
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Old 09-21-2017, 09:54 AM   #10
The Pook
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Unfortunately nothing for Friday either.

Pook
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