Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Races of Interest
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-05-2020, 03:20 PM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
"Big Cap" Santa Anita

Field of 7 to go for the Big Cap this Saturday

http://www.brisnet.com/content/2020/...r-kilroe-mile/

Big day to look forward to

Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2020, 03:26 PM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 2,051
Here you go Bill:






10th @ SA 1 ¼ G1 P $600,000


In post position order
  • Multiplier- Returns to dirt where he earned his highest SR and back to trainer that garnered best SR. Distance is no problem and best distance is 10 F. Next to last appears he is better on turf than dirt but his best SR is on dirt and his next to last was after a layoff and was needed.Came to form in last in prep for this and several sharp works since last. M/L20-1 Contender
  • Two Thirty Five – Wins came at shorter. While he ran a big 3rd Fr in last it was against a slow pace. With todays pace I don’t think he can run that big 3rd FR. A 6 yr. old that must prove both dis., and upin class. I’m not seeing any upside, pass. Non-Contender
  • Brown Storm – Steps up in class and must prove dirt on the step up. Better suited to turf and longer races. Non- Contender
  • Gift Box – A hard knocking 7 yr. old that won this last year, dis. OK & class of field. Races well after layoffs and trainer has handled very nicely. Will be a justifiable favorite. The M/L odds of 6/5 not encouraging. Contender
  • Midcourt – Late bloomer that has won 5 of last 6. Top unknown?? Last was his best at a shorter distance and nice workouts since then.Tougher field today than in last start and finally gets tested today at alonger distance. Contender
  • Combatant - His record doesn’t live up to his name and he’s just not that tough of a fighter. Must prove both distance and class jump. Change of trainer from last and probably better shorter and may be only a Stake horse or G3 type. Non-Contender
  • Hofburg -I liked this horse as a 3 year old but it appears the TC trail did him in and he is not the same horse. Class and distance is OK, however now appears to be an in and outer and who can predict when he’ll run a good one? After a 9-month layoff for repairs can’t put together two good races in a row indicates he may have come unglued again. Non-Contender
  • Endorsed – Missed the TC trail and started late as a 3 yr. old and progressed nicely. After best race given some time off to mature and came back with a win. Since last has had several progressive workouts and at a longer dis. for this. This looks to have been the target for sometime. Smartly handled and ready. Contender

    My own distance factor rates them 4-8-3-1-5

    Final with everything considered I have this 4-8-5-1-3

    Notes:1. # 8 is best win bet for odds
    2. the 1 & 3 are fairly even but I chose dirt over turf horse for ranking believing both have found their niche.
    3. Designed bets to take advantage of capping:
    Win# 8
    Ex. 4,8 with 1 & 3
    Ex 4 & 8 & 8 &4 if a decent paying Ex. (over $16) as the 8 may make it decent, check payoffs, they’ll load up on 4 & 5 & 5 with 4 for an underlay Ex.)
    Tri 4,8,5 / 4,8,5 / 1,3
    Tri 4,8,5, /1,3 /4,8,5

    Mitch44




Last edited by Mitch44; 03-06-2020 at 03:37 PM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 12:21 PM   #3
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Gift

Hi Mitch

I am hearing rumors the Gift Box might scratch

But this is what I get

Name:  Gift Box.PNG
Views: 161
Size:  48.8 KB

Name:  Gift Box_2.PNG
Views: 164
Size:  56.1 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 12:32 PM   #4
elocutionist
AlwNW3X
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 33
Just heard on TVG that Gift Box did scratch.
elocutionist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 12:34 PM   #5
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Yes

Thank you
Yes I see TVG is listing Gift Box as scratched
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 12:37 PM   #6
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Segs

Here is the Big Cap with Gift Box out

Name:  Gift Box_3.PNG
Views: 166
Size:  51.7 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 01:12 PM   #7
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 2,561
Good luck guys
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 03:07 PM   #8
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 2,051
Update:


My distance factor 8-5-1-3-2


Final order 8-5-2-1-3


Win bet 8


Ex. $2 8/ 1,2,3
$1 5/ 1,2,3,
Tri.'s $1 8/1,3,/2,5
$1 8/2,5/1,3
$.50 8,2,5/1,3/8,2,5
$.50 8,2,5,/8,2,5,/1,3


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 03:24 PM   #9
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Late DD

Good Skill/Luck Miitch

Here is my late DD

DB
R10: 2,5,7

R11: 3,5,7,10

$24.00
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2020, 07:38 PM   #10
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 2,051
Well I couldn't see that one coming. The 6 wins to run the best race of his lifetime. Trainer change from Asmussen to Sadler and springs the upset. Not something expected from a Steve Asmussen horse to be improved upon.

My # 1 longshot did get the place as another shocker ,off at 33-1, as I was in the correct arena.



The game does humble us at times however onward and upward.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-07-2020 at 07:49 PM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Santa Anita Fairchild General Discussion 1 02-09-2020 01:30 PM
Santa Anita and synthetic surface stats mick General Discussion 1 10-27-2019 09:36 AM
Santa Anita Opening Day CheckMark Selections 11 09-30-2018 11:46 AM
Santa Anita - use Code: SA Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 1 09-28-2012 06:44 PM
Santa Anita Eyes Dirt Surface fasteddy General Discussion 0 05-22-2010 06:13 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:44 AM.