Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles

[barb craven]

ANOTHER TOOL (Follow Up # 79)

Let’s begin with a little story. Our star in this story is, to be sure, a race track denizen. Let's call him “Sure Thing“ Sherm. Sherm is always looking fora new angle, or even better than that, some INSIDE information. He spends a lot of pre-race time in the paddock area watching for something, anything. Sherm is looking for a TIP that will GIVE him a winner.

On one particular day Sherm notices a priest in the paddock area. Sherm remembers that he has seen this priest around the horses on other occasions. He decides to watch and see what happens. In each case the horse the priest stops in front of and speaks to gets up and wins the race. Sherm is ecstatic, certain he has found the ANSWER to riches at the race track.

Sherm has decided to make a major investment on the next horse the priest talksto before the race (he is going to plunge on this one). He goes to the bank and takes out some extra money for this bet, thinking about how he will spend his winnings. He gets to the track and spots the priest. Sherm follows this man of the cloth to the paddock area, ready for a sure winner. True to form the priest stops with one of the owners and then spends a few moments talking to the horse. Glancing at the tote board Sherm notices the odds on this horse are 45 to 1.
True, the priest has not had a winner this big before, still they have all won. Sherm presses on with his plan. He goes to the windows and purchases the biggest win ticket he has ever seen, much less bought himself. He then hurries out to a spot along the rail close to the finish line wanting to be close to the action as his "Sure thing" crosses the line first.

The gate opens and they are off. Sherm listens for the call. He does not hear his horse's name. He looks at the tote board and cannot see his horse’s number. They turn for home and still no sound or sight of the sure thing. It finishes just this way with Sherm holding onto the most expensive track memento he has ever bought, and his horse finishing far up the track.

Sherm is devastated and goes looking for the priest. He finds him and asks what went wrong with this horse. The priest answers Sherm in a matter of fact tone saying, "Son, you have to know the difference between a blessing and the last Rites".

After poor Sherm’s story, the question for each of us becomes-“Where are you as a handicapper?” When you picture yourself as a handicapper what do you see? A Sherm? A winner? A loser? A Methodologist? A Methodologist who uses the program but cannot resist tampering with it? The next question then is are you satisfied with where you have just seen yourself? And, lastly, what are you going to do about it if you are not accepting where you see yourself today as a handicapper?

Now, if you are not content, what are YOU going to do about it? The first place to begin is with your records. Your records are the validation of your answer for where you are as a handicapper or as a successful wagercapper, or for where you need to improve.

Here is another tool. Using a technique from the self-help and counselling arena is an approach which may be used to assist us in looking at where we can make some changes or do some fine tuning. It may also assist in getting a feel for the program readouts. The technique is called journaling. It is nothing more than writing down your thoughts; insights and feelings at certain times or when certain events occur. I suggest you take your records; specifically the twenty race cycle, and incorporate this technique of journaling into them. Most of these entries will be of a subjective nature. They go to the heart of your approach to the parimutuel challenge.

I have found that after each race if I jot down a few notes it is extremely helpful to me later when I review the entire day or couple of days. I am looking for insights into habits I may have fallen into whether positive or negative. I am looking for races which create anxieties that create indecision. I am looking for which pacelines I select that inflate today's performance or pacelines that will down grade today's chances. I am seeking non-numerical data about how I am currently seeing the past performances in selecting pacelines and contenders.

It is hard to say how bad habits creep into our successful endeavours but they do. Journaling has become another tool I use to keep myself on track, to keep my good habits in the winning mode. I do not worry about running times, track bias, distance, or surface. What I am interested in is how I used the Synthesis readouts; how did I interpret the results from a series of running lines; how are my entered contenders faring. Also, I should note that in this review of my journalized twenty race cycles I am not looking for one time deviations. I am seeking consistency in my selection of winners. I am looking for patterns of perfection or disaster.

To many it seems like trying to organize chaos, therefore impossible. It may seem chaotic to them; however, I know that even in randomness and chaos there is predictability. I use the journaling technique to help me see if the pacelines I select are the ones that are predicting the winners. Remember, it is the pacelines that provide the data the programs use to create the tiers of contenders.

Of course, all of these techniques and guidelines are of little help if the goalis forgotten. Your goal should be consistent with how you see yourself as a handicapper.

In a recent issue of the Follow Up we have seen the goals and results from a pair of Methodologists. Their goals are reflected in their approach and results. Peter Tolan has shared with us not merely his winning monster trifecta tickets but that the trifecta to him is a seldom used wager. He waits for the time when the programs show him the contenders will provide an acceptable return for him. He is not chasing every trifecta race on the card. It is obviously working for him.

And then we have Terri Owens who reports a 42% win percentage but is selective enough to still show a profit. Here are examples from two wagercappers who KNOW where they are as handicappers AND what their goals are. They keep both their goals and their method in their minds eye as they successfully wagercap. I do not know about you but I am not looking to exist on rumors and tips for my success at the track. I look to be successful long after the Sherms and the priests have taken their leave.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder .... work the plan, be profitable.
'Til next time.

[barb craven]

INTEND TO WIN (Follow Up # 80)

“You need chaos in your soul to give birth to a dancing star”…..Nietzsche

Wow!! What a letter from V. Y. in Follow Up #79. Here we are working to transfer our success and skills from out side horse racing to successful wagercapping (profitcapping?), and here is one of us who has so integrated the lessons and guidelines from the Doc that he is able to use success in parimutuels and take that success back to his profession. Awesome. Hats off to you V.Y. Good luck!!

Now how can WE use the Doc's programs, guidelines, and counsel to achieve Parimutuel success?

Last time I mentioned journaling. I encountered some confusion about what it meant and how to use it in wagercapping and did it fit in with the Methodology. The best way I have found to do it is With the Validator. There is now the capability to add comments via the F9 (?) and F10 keys (*). It is easiest to put the notes in one of these fields. The notes are then printed when you print the BL/BL Screen. Now you have your question or concern printed right there with the readouts. The answer is in how the race is run. Was yours a valid question or mere smoke from a leftover mainstream concept? Use this feature. It simplifies record keeping and it will help you to see where 1) you interject outside influence into your wagercapping and 2) how that influence is a negative or losing one. It will show you that indeed the winners are gettable. They are right there in whichever Synthesis program we are using, right up to the Validator.


One question that you have been asked to answer for yourself is “Where do you see yourself as a “handicapper?" I have asked the question of myself and of you. The answer boils down to one of intent. As I work the races do I intend to win them or do I merely want to have the contenders in the Validator rankings? If the contenders are in the top five I can show them around; and I can have an excuse for not having the winner. I CANNOT go to the window and receive cash for a profitable investment.

Our intent HAS to be to win from the moment we begin to download a card to the moment we make the investment. We must INTEND to win. To accept not losing is not sufficient. We must be driven to WIN. Do we intend to do what it takes to be a consistent winner; one of the 5% who consistently extract a profit from their investments at the track? That is a pretty incredible club to belong to, the 5% parimutuel winners' club. When we get into this one we will truly have arrived.

If we do not intend to be a winner the process of working the races is merely an exercise, and it can soon become an exercise in futility and frustration. Our intent helps us transform ourselves from losers to winners. It shows us the losing tickets generated from mainstream theories and systems. We are led to the Methodology because we are dedicated to becoming a winner. The Methodology has Synthesis and its several formats, especially Validator, all of them are successful. It is through the Methodology that we can develop our potential as successful Wagercappers. Synthesis is the tool we use to satisfy our true intent of winning, profiting at the races. Synthesis and the Validator can be our bridge from the losing side to the winning side. On the way over the bridge why not just toss over the adherence to mainstream madness. Using the Methodology to win is not just changing our old ways; it is getting rid of them. Face it they have not been very good to us so far or we would not be looking for a way that works. So do not just change the old ways. Let them go, COMPLETELY.

Adherence to and immersion in oldstream systems and justifications is rule domination which discounts our intuitive senses. Our intuitive senses like hand-eye coordination allow us to assimilate data and internally arrive at a solution or action that will provide us with a successful outcome and to take that course of action. There are guidelines but rules do not work here. With Validator the Doc has, over time, gleaned the most productive graphs, charts and formulae and put them into a program that works with guidelines and not rules. For optimal performance it requires a sense of what each read out tells us as we approach post time. It insists upon a decision from each of us based not on an attachment to some rule or other but on the readouts, our faith in the pacelines selected and our sense of how the readouts fit today's race.

Rules offer a detachment from the process. The rule is follow the rule, there is no room for intuition, the use of our own senses, there is only room for the rule and the ubiquitous exception to the rule. Exceptions defined by more rules. Is that an oxymoron or what? A little unsettling, isn't it? Blind faith obedience to rules leads us to complacency. Handicapping becomes a ritual of looking for all the rules, angles, pars, trip notes, and exceptions. It loses its intrinsic gut level appeal.

As we leave the rule domination of oldstream methods many of us have to fight an internal urge, bordering on obsession in some, to know how the program works and how we can manipulate it. This need to control the program gets many of us into trouble at the windows. We never get to go back to collect. Why do we need to control the program? WE D0 NOT. The need is a hold over from the handicapping we did before we passed over the bridge and tossed the old paradigm over the edge. It is a requirement of the linear thinking we did before Synthesis and now the Validator. We can use open-minded attention to unroot us from our complacency. It allows us to accept the readouts, interpret them, and if anything needs altering it is not the program but the paceline selection. So we can affect the outcome but only by what we put into the program. We can then get to the windows and WIN.

We do not have to worry about how to manipulate the way the data will come out to us. We do not have to worry about forgetting a rule or a superseded rule. We do not have to worry about betting the top horse. In short or maybe not so short we get the readouts and wager based on our highest expectation of profit. We are especially not wed to short-priced favorites. In fact in many races we dare them to win because we know they will not or we can pass the race. How about Chuluki at odds-on at the Fairgrounds on March 11? The Breeders Cup winner who shows no better than 4th on the readouts and runs 8th. The winner, Shawnee Country, returning a nice $15.80 mutuel. Why is Chuluki such a short price? Oldstream methods. Oldstream rules. Do not miss this opportunity. Use the Validator. Become a winner.

Look at what it has done for V. Y. Truly, winning can change your life. Let chaos elevate winning to be a 'dancing star' in your life.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder .... work the plan, be profitable.
'Til next time.

[barb craven]

ANCHORED? ( Follow Up #81)

Bet the top two horses to win - Early Pace Rating (EP) - Late Pace Rating (LP) -
- Early - Presser - Sustained - FX - FW...

Are these familiar terms? These are the sounds of a Sartin Seminar from the 80's. For many Methodologists, especially those of us who became clients in the 80's, these terms were the foundation for our success at the track. For those who have become clients more recently; these are the words of the Methodology's past, its history and from whence it has evolved. It is an archive of the progression of the vocabulary from that era to today's Methodology and the Validator. The vocabulary which sets us, as handicappers, apart from mainstream thought and mainstream systems players.

These terms were as valuable to the earlier clients as the terms Bottom Line/Betting line, Early-late Graph, Incremental Pace Graph and V/DC are to current clients. Why mention them here? One, they are terms that set the Methodology apart from oldstream handicapping maxims and secondly they are terms that have become anchors to many of the clients from the era of Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III. These anchors are preventing them from moving forward with the changes in thoroughbred handicapping, the Methodology and continuing to profitcap. These phrases and terms were as important to these clients as the new words are to us today.

The Methodology, in order to help us become and remain successful, needed to separate us clients from oldstream habits. One manner of accomplishing this was to create a terminology that excluded the perceptions, meanings and attachments of the mainstream horseplayer. The majority of horseplayers are losing at the track, and an attachment to and involvement in their language and perceptions helps to keep us in the same losing mode they perpetuate for themselves. We needed to break away from this negative hold on our thinking. We needed a new language, a language to set ourselves apart from the losing crowd into the winning one. Howard Sartin provided one for us.

Now the Doc did not create all the words and terms; he merely assigned them a Methodology definition, an alternative way to think about how Methodology programs saw horse races. It was a way for us to sever the bond we had to the litany of the losing horseplayer, "coulda, woulda, shoulda". As the handicapping revolution moved into its next sequence guess what? - the language changed again. Now we have the first wave of revolutionary handicappers who had been winning with a new language faced with changes in the vocabulary, things change and they cannot let go. Betting the top two had become as sacred to them as water is to life. It is no longer the most profitable way to utilize the program readouts. In order to cash in on the larger mutuels in today's racing, we need to be using today's Methodology complete with its attending phraseology. Time marches on and so have the developments the Doc has brought to the programs of the Methodology geared to make us all winners. With the changes in the programs have come changes in the vocabulary of the programs. As we have gone through the learning process and exposure to non-linear mathematics, chaos and fractals there are new words, a new jargon of winning. It is important to us who work to remain in the winning groove that we change with the Methodology, embrace the changes in the programs, use the vocabulary that comes with them, and keep on winning. Continuing to use the words even of yesterdays Methodology keeps us anchored in outdated programs and outdated concepts, anchored in losing habits. It keeps us stuck in another era. It may have been a winning era; but times are changing and to maintain profitability, not just win percentage, we need to get into the present programs, the current vernacular.

Remember this is a Methodology about a revolution in handicapping - and, as such, the Doc has kept it and us moving forward, keeping us ahead of the pack and ahead of the short mutuel.

Speaking of short mutuels; another year, another derby and this year the favorite won. Wow! For the first time in 21 years the favorite actually prevailed in this race. Keep remembering it is only one race, and do not become caught up in wagering more than your usual amount. Not for the first time but for a continued succession of years the Sartin Methodology Programs did again have the winner in the correct spot on the readouts, right on top. Using the Validator the race ran just as the program displayed it 12-5-1C (Fusaichi Pegasus, Aptitude and Impeachment). The readouts were similar to recent years except that the favorite was actually the top horse this time around. The program even had the next two finishers in the order of finish, and that trifecta returned $435.00 for $2. So even as the favorite fell below acceptable odds of 5/2 (unless one felt compelled to bet and then used a 60/40 dutch, there was still a way to turn a nice profit. Of course if one does not bet the exotics it was a great race to pass and watch. After all it is still only one race on one card, and there were plenty of other great opportunities even with access limited to the tracks taken by the Southern California simulcasting signal. As a footnote when handicapping the Preakness and the Belmont remember DO NOT use the Kentucky Derby lines.

Now, back to anchors. There have been a number of teaching members over the years. It seems they felt they could go no further with the revolution and sort of jumped ship. However, one of the things they have had in common was that they were not using oldstream techniques. They used the Methodology to win. Time has moved on; and unless these former teaching members were able to adapt and move forward, they became mired in the past and no longer a part of the on-going revolution in handicapping and they left. They became anchors to the past.

Attachment to individual quirks of these teachers was a temporary positive effect if that. It is the programs, the guidelines and OUR PERSONAL use of them that generates winners. I do not need to be calling on the phone every other day to try and figure out somebody else's nuances and how that affects the contenders in today's race. I want to catch my own fish, day in and day out. However, I cannot make the rod, the reel, the line, the weights, floats and all the rest so I use the guidelines of a program that provides me with all I need to have in order to do my own winning day in and day out.

Losing is a habit. Winning can be a habit. Make the choice to be a winner. Embrace the changes as they come. Just as your boat must adapt to the wind so must you adapt to changes in handicapping and the Methodology that leads the field. WEIGH ANCHOR and float free.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder .... work the plan, be profitable.

[barb craven]

Paradigm Shift (Followup # 82)


Winning. Winning is what the Methodology is all about; making us winners at the track to make us winners in life. The goal of the Methodology is to allow us to let go of all that holds back our creativity and thought in becoming winners. The Follow Up is replete with articles to help us achieve that winning level. There are always letters from clients who have overcome many of the BLOCKS which they have encountered, and have become winners.

Lately one of the currently common words we hear and read is PARADIGM. "What is a paradigm?", is one of the questions I have been asked most often in recent months. Let us look at what is meant when we hear about paradigms and a paradigm shift and how this evolution can and does affect our bottom line. It is how those who are not yet winning can see how they are held back by the handicapping paradigm.

A paradigm is "the philosophical and theoretical framework of a school or discipline within which theories, laws and generalizations and the experiments performed IN SUPPORT OF THEM are formulated" (Webster's 10th edition collegiate dictionary, emphasis mine). In this definition we see that a paradigm is self-perpetuating. It does not allow experiments or generalizations that are not supportive of the dominant paradigm of the time. We can see examples of this throughout history.

Here is one instance: Remember Galileo?? Galileo was the one who put forth the idea with experimental evidence that the earth was not the center of our solar system, that indeed the Earth revolved around the Sun. This was so contrary to the accepted paradigm that Galileo risked being burned at the stake if he did not recant his theory. He did recant and lived to see many more days. We further know that within a few years this 'controversial' thought was accepted as truth. This caused a shift in the paradigm of the time and of the scientific discipline in general. It threatened anyone with a vested interest in the old paradigm. It certainly threatened those who were supposedly the most learned of the day. A second more recent example is the quartz watch. It was invented by those Master watch makers, the Swiss. However, the new idea was so different these Swiss did not accept the concept. They did take the quartz watch to a trade show where it was seen by some Japanese watchmakers. We know what happened after that. Japan became the dominating watchmaking country in the world utilizing a new paradigm in watchmaking.


Anchors was my topic in the most recent issue of the Follow Up (#81). These anchors that keep us rooted in the vestiges of the past whether they are from" oldstream" contexts or from the older Methodology itself are the framework of the old paradigm. We know that the Doc continues looking for and finding ways to keep the Methodology moving forward. It is indeed a revolution of thought, ideas, and use of new technology. What has really occurred is that the Doc has ushered us into a new paradigm. It is a shift from the old thought patterns to the new thought patterns and the acceptance of the shift does not come easily.


The 'horsey' paradigm-what is it?? This is the dominant handicapping thought of our day. It has been the dominant thought for quite some time. One of the earliest 'absolutes' in handicapping was the use of speed figures, especially final time. Today this prevailing thought still dominates the mainstream paradigm in contender selection. Visual perception of a horse's running style, second call times, man made 'class' distinctions, closest to the pace, recency, yada, yada,
yada... these are other manifestations of the old 'horsey' paradigm. One of the things that happens,when one accepts an overriding premise, i.e. final time, as THE factor is that any other aspects are slanted to make the dominant thought the winning one. This prevents new ideas from coming to the surface.

Even the concept of pace was not accepted as having any credence untii recent years and even now most pundits regard pace as merely the second call time: Of course if one is making their living from selling systems, selections, and publications why would they want to change? If you actually sell a system that really wins you may have lost an on-going, paying customer. Sooooo let's maintain the status quo seems to be the order of the day. Keep those customers coming back. Sell those purloinedl over-used formulas, repeated 'rules and angles', speed calculators, and racing ana!yzers. One horse betting. Now there is a rear cornerstone of the mainstream paradigm. It has nothing to do with contender selection only in how one actually invests their money. When people make other types of investments whether it be stocks, coins, or vintage wine they do not invest in only one stock, one coin, or one bottle of wine. Why should profitcappers be any different? We shouldn't; invest to profit, not merely to speculate. We know how beneficial two horse betting can be, and it takes us out of that ego-driven need to be able to pick THE winner. Remember, the goal is to be a winner, a winner of money not of races or fans.

Using the very highly visible and thus perhaps easier to remember races of the Triple Crown it can again be illustrated how the multiple horse investment pays off. Unlike recent years this year the programs showed the favorite had a good chance to win. We know he did win. My win tickets in the Derby were not winners; they were on Aptitude and Impeachment because I was not willing to accept the short price on the favorite. However, using the SAME two horse betting guide in the Preakness, again not accepting the short price on the favorite, I collect the $14.40 mutuel on the winner, Red Bullet. For the first two legs then the minimum investment for win tickets is $8. The return is $14.40. The net profit is $6.60 or 80%. This is a good example of investing on two horses per race to make a profit not on just one race but on all the races.

The old paradigm dominates the publications and the minds of almost all the people around us. We see the same bylines, tip sheets and horseplayers wherever we go to profitcap. Being locked into assumptions based on an old paradigm prevents us from evolving into the wagercapper you want to be. By changing our assumptions and dropping the old ones we begin to alter the decisions we are making. We begin then using the new paradigm. This shift allows us to wagercap beyond oldstream conventions. It allows all of us to be winners.

Since the evolution of the Synthesis program Dr. Sartin has truly taken the Methodology not only into a revolution but into a new paradigm. It is up to us, individually, to not be saddled by excuses and feeble limitations. We are at the forefront of this phenominal shift. Ride it to a new you, a winning you.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder .... work the plan, be profitable. 'Till next time.

[barb craven]

Practice, Practice (Followup # 83)

Let's go to the races and see how the Validator 2 can work for us. These races are from September 10. I will be looking at races covered by the simulcast signal available in California. For September 10th this includes Belmont Park, Arlington Park, Bay Meadows and Del Mar.

Lets start with Belmont. There are a number of races on this card that are bankroll builders when the program guidelines are followed. The first race is one of those as is the second although I found this race required a bit more focus to get the right contenders in place. The 5th and 7th races also yielded nice winning mutuels. By this time on the card I am well enough ahead that I can do two things. The first is to save some tickets to be able to validate these races and secondly is to be able to be more selective in my race selection. I do not want to give back what I have already earned. The first ticket I saved was for the 10th race. It is an 8F turf event for 3 years old and older. Contenders: PROP-2nd off layoff, use last line. DAD'S-use last line and ask can he win 2 in a row? INAll-last line. KRAT-1 did not use the last line because I can see the horse hit the gate at the start and unlike his front end running style was already 6th at the 1 st call, use the 2nd back. HALL-2nd line back is a much better line than anything else showing, use it and ask if he can repeat this best performance. RUTH-here is a horse stretching out, he has been competitive in his last 4 so keep him and use the last line back. AN OS-last line noting he is a NTL horse and will have company up front. The two I used were KRATO and PROP not trusting HAll to repeat a best ever performance. The finish was exactly this KRATO then PROP with HALL running next to last. The mutuel was $10.80.

Moving from New York to Chicago let's look at a few races from Arlington Park. The 2nd race was run at 8F for 2 year olds. The Morning Line favorite was scratched so there was the possibility of this race opening up a little bit. It did not happen. Contenders: VOTE-part of an entry, use the last line, a win at the level, also going from a series of sprints to a route today. MICA-consistent SRs may compete with this weak field. MY BEAU-Can he win 2 in a row, not likely at this level. SURR-in from ELP with 2 consecutive seconds at this level. I have the contenders down to three and the entry is a short price so I invest on the other two and fall short as the favored entry does win.

On to the 5th race. This one is for three years old and up at 8.5 F for a claiming tag of $25,000. It is a short field (6). Contenders: LAKE-has won 5 straight. I used the 2nd race back, it is the only race in the streak at less than 9F. PERF-use 3rd line, the first dirt line. SONG-2nd back wondering if he can handle the level rise and repeat this number. DANe-took the 3rd back, first on the dirt and at this track, wonder if he can repeat the good number. He came close last out on the turf. The program ranks the favorite 4th in this mix so I do not have to hide that one and bet on SONG and DANCE both with questions of their ability to repeat good numbers. Here we see the value of 2 horse investing as DANCE wins and SONG runs next to last. The mutuel was $14.20 and the favorite placed a full length behind the winner.

Arlington the 7th. A 6.5F sprint for allowance runners 3 years and up. Contenders:SHAA-has won 2 in a row moving from claiming ranks and now going through his conditions, use last race. HARL-coming out of 2 stakes routes, use third line back the closest to today's distance (8.0F) and level (AI 47). SMOK-won 2 of the last three, use last race. AMER-a shipper most recently from Saratoga, use 2nd line back. NUNC-use most recent race. OUT O-use 4th line back, 1 st sprint line and at the level. Bl/BL lists the tiers as SMOK/NUNC/AMER/HARUOUT O. SMOK goes off as the second favorite and wins by 2 plus lengths and returns $8.80.

Arlington the 9th. An allowance level turf race for fillies and mares 3 and up. Contenders: H.V.A.C-won last out a $35,000 claiming race, has won 2 of last 3. GEND-second in last two, needs to repeat a career high SR. Use last line. GENE-won last 2, a claimer ($20,OOO) and an allowance race at this level. Use last race. CARI-use last line a win. SPAS-has three show finishes at the level. Does he have the will to win? DISQ-no wins in 2 races in this country. Improving SR, use last race. Now to the calculations and see what we come up with. The program comes up with them GEND, DISQ/H. V. The bet is win on GEND and DISQ, and a place bet on DISQ. DlSQ wins and returns $26.80 for $2.00 as well as $10.20 to place. It has been a good betting day so far.

The Atto Mile is a million dollar race run at Woodbine on this date and carried by the simulcast network. Let's take a look. It will be run at BF on the turf and is for 3 years old and up. Contenders: LADIE-won last out at Del Mar at 9F, however, use the 2nd line back a good race at today's distance. THINK-ran a dud last out but won 3 in a row prior, use 2nd line back. HELIO-won last out, an allowance race ($73,900) and 4 back won a stakes at this track, use the last line. AFFIR-use the 2nd race back, note the steady decline in SR (100-97-92-85) a question to be sure. RIVIE-use last line, has ascending SR figures (83-91-91-95) a good sign. Possible contenders: HONE-No turf routes or dirt wins showing-out. KAHAL-a bit below this group SR-wise and outside of allowance ranks struggles at the route-out. MUHTA-no races in North America, could be a threat, avoided in the betting in his last 2 is a due today-out. LADlE was under 2/1 so I hid that one. The two horse investment is RIVIE and HELIO. The result is another win and a nice mutuel ($23.10) using the Validator.

One more practice example here. This one the 7th at Bay Meadows. This race is for lower level claimers ($6250), 3 years old and up at 6 F. Contenders: HELLO-use the last race back. DEPUT-last race. SOVIE-last race. VERY- use last race, a win remembering there are not many repeat winners at this level. PHONE-use 2nd race back, closer to this level and on this track. STAR-3rd line back is the first sprint use that line. BL/BL ranks the favorite (HELLO) fourth and gives us STAR and PHONE as the investment horses both at good prices. PHONE wins and returns $22.80 while STAR, the second favorite is next to last. Thank you Validator, not just for this race but for the day. We have had double digit wins in New York, Chicago and San Francisco thanks to the Validator. I hope looking at these races has been helpful to you. The read outs and the tickets are available at the office in Beaumont and space permitting I am sure the Doc will include them in The Follow Up order to help with questions that may come up about contender selection, and investment decisions. One thing to remember is that there is no winning streak unless this race is won. Work each race like it was the beginning of a winning streak. Carefully and fully.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder ... work the plan, be profitable. 'Til next time.

[barb craven]

Making It (Follow Up # 84)


"How do I get to the winners window?" This is the question that becomes the drive, the goal for each of us after that first race track betting experience. Are we snake bitten and deluded, or have we discovered the land of milk and honey?

It seems as if it will be so easy to capitalize on the betting and to go home with more money than I took to the track, and to do it regularly. I say to myself all I need is a 'system' and the rest, as they say, will be gravy. I do not know if 'they' really say that or if 'they' really care whether I am on the gravy train or not. I do know it was not as easy as it seemed at first, even for a fairly smart person. As a matter of fact, I had more losing days than winning ones. It was always fun though. Maybe too much fun.

There were always reasons why my selections did not win. The reasons ran the gamut of oldstream rationalizations, and some times my selections just plain lost. Excuses, lousy systems, or misplaced credibility - it did not matter - I was running in the red. How does one stop this slide, this losing habit from continuing? Improve the system? Make more rules? Read more books? Listen to more experts? Give it up? It certainly did become confusing. And what seemed like a guaranteed income, the proverbial Mother lode, continued to elude me. Every place I had turned for edification and enlightenment had come to a dead end. What to do?? Give up the quest? Is it truly a Holy Grail and unattainable??

I surged onward. There must be a way. Surely if anyone can do it I can also do it.

It seemed that each of those with whom I spoke, watched, or read about and who was also successful was doing it independent of mainstream dogma. If a system or method was being used it fit their personal handicapping criteria. How do I come up with my own? Is there a new angle? Can I find it?

I did not find a new angle, but I did find the Methodology.

Did it make me a winner? (you may be asking) Well, it did reinforce my belief that one could profit from investing in short term parimutuel events (horse races). And it allowed me to find a path to the winner's window. It is not a wide path. The path is not always straight; that is, it is a changing path., not static. Truly that was a hard lesson to have to understand. In searching for the winning answer I had always assumed that once I found it, it would continue the same. Alas it was not nor is it to be. like the variability of the races themselves the ability to select contenders and profit from them is to be a continually changing process. Once I assimilated this fact, it made all the more sense. Everything in life is in 'constant change; how could horse racing be any different?

The approach to moving from handicapper to wagercapper and profitcapper was not just about adopting the Methodology. It was about starting at the top of the alphabet for Goal Achievement. Letter A says AVOID negative sources, people, places, things, and habits. That is a pretty conclusive definition for behavior change. It meant I would not be doing some of the things that I had enjoyed about handicapping - especially hanging out and talking about how the races had been run and how the next would unfold. Like any sporting event it seems that the outcome is only marginally important. The best part is to recite statistics, reasons for winning and for losing, trainer numbers, jockey stats, track bias, pars ... yada, yada, yada ... with anyone who wants in on the conversation. If I were to become successful I would have to give this up. Okay, done. The enjoyment comes from actually cashing more winning tickets and not participating in the race "talk" in which the losers tend to be the loudest or the wordiest.

The second letter in'these' ABC's-and the only other one I will mention in this issue, is B for BELIEVE IN YOURSELF. WOW! Believe in yourself. This one puts the ball, the responsibility for winning and losing, right in my lap. I cannot blame the track, the jockey, the touts, or even the horse. I chose the wrong contender. It is as simple as that. No more wasted energy making up excuses, rationalizations that probably are closer to fantasy than reality.

One of the popular images that I have used is that of a mountain we are climbing; climbing away from an old habit, an old part of our life. As we scale the mountain we move closer to the top, to the GOAL, the ANSWER. - we leave behind that which was holding us back. Now I want to introduce an accompanying image. Remember B is for Believe in Yourself. Instead of continuing to climb the mountain what happens if you let go? This is not sliding back on the slope - this is actually letting go. What happens now? Do you fall back into the old ways? Have you failed? Here is where self belief comes in. I believe I will fall into my own hands, that I will catch myself. What was I climbing toward? Even when I find the ultimate answer, I must put it into practice. So belief in myself allows me to set aside the deterrents to success and to proceed, but not necessarily upward. This was a big change in assumptions. Accepting that the solution lies within me rather than on a seemingly mythical top (with a guru waiting to give me the answer), I begin to alter the decisions I am making. I make them solely for myself now. The losing paradigm is outside my thought process. Gone. How do you know you believe in yourself? Can you bet $2.00 and only $2.00? If you are betting more and not winning, the thought of betting only the minimum is a hard one for you might really be passing up a larger win - one that may not come often. Belief in yourself says, "all right there will be another race. $2.00 is fine on this one. I can start and build a new bank with a $2.00 investment on this one". If you are not winning regularly, the thought of giving up a larger profit is too much to handle. If you are not betting at all, the $2.00 indicates belief that you can do it. Being able to go to the beginning (a $2.00 bet) helps me reaffirm the belief in myself that I can build a bank at any time. It is like that great line from Ghostbusters when Bill Murray says, 'We had the tools, we had the talent ... ". Well, we have the tools and we are the talent and we can do it continually.

Transitions are seldom easy. I have shared a little about my own transition and in these pages I try to present analogies as different ways of looking at the way to make the transition because I know we do not all get the message in the same manner. My hope is for all of us to become winners. And remember to use the Follow Up to reinforce your acceptance of your success in handicapping.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder ... work the plan, be profitable. 'Til next time.

[barb craven]

Taking Stock (Follow Up # 85)

The calendar year, one's birthday, and the fiscal year are each a measure of the passage of time, a year come and a year gone. As each period ends we spend some time in thought about how we occupied ourselves in the previous year. On December 31, a look back at the previous twelve months is a common practice and for many New Year's Resolutions are made. These resolutions for most are not very well thought out but mostly wishes or hopes about some things they would like to change but are not very committed to in terms of WORK; many are even trendy--lose weight, stop smoking, clean out the garage, etc.

The end of the fiscal year. For many this coincides with that of the Federal Government and the tax due date of April 15. Here as we look at the bottom line on the forms we again make an assessment as to how we can have a better tax year next year. Improvement in our taxed bottom line may require WORK and possibly even a little sacrifice. One goal could even be to increase the number of W-2G forms from wagercapping.

One's birthday is a time to review where we have been and where we are going as individuals as well as the other aspects of our lives. It is a time for a spiritual assessment as well as a fiscal and physical one. I imagine some do this on December 31. I use my birthday because this day is unique to me and I am more comfortable in reviewing my achievements and shortfalls for the past year as I approach this day. It is the day for my annual setf reckoning; no lies, all truths.

Each of these dates marks an end point. However, for each of these cycles we must remember that there is also a beginning and we can create a different, a new outcome for each one of them. As our taking stock may be so close to the Christmas season maybe we can recall the ghost of Jacob Marley admonishing Scrooge that "... business? My business was mankind ... " as he warned of the apparitions to come. This serves as a reminder for us to continue to share the successes we experience in any of our endeavors with those not so fortunate.

Each of these periods, and there may be more for some, present us with an opportunity to take stock of the previous year, to see where we have been, where we had wanted to go, and where we actually ended up. It is an opportunity for us to get back on the track we had set out for ourselves if we did not get where we were headed.

It should come as no surprise that one of the main areas I review is my wagercapping. Truthfully I do not wait for a once a year moment to assess performance in equine investments; there are twenty race cycles which provide current data for continual review. However, annually is a good time for a major audit. I look at my wagercapping records from several angles. One is "did I turn a profit?" Next I want to know if my contender selections induded the eventual winner. Also "am I making the best use of the read-outs", betting those higher priced contenders from the #3 and #4 BL/BL tiers and getting winners, capitalizing (pun intended) on the larger prices found there? Then, am I free of outside distractions (noise), i.e. friends, "experts", literature, 'loving a horse'. How did I do at PASSING races? Did I pass too many? Did I bet too many, trying to force winners to emerge that had too much to overcome and poor chances of succeeding? These are the guideline fundamentals. In addition I look at the psychological aspects of winning.

The psychological aspects of winning, are the ones the Doc writes about in every Follow Up. This aspect of wagercapping is what the methodology is all about. Performing a personal wagercapping audit without evaluating this factor would be to do oneself a disservice. It is after all the major factor separating the Methodology from the mainstream. From the 'Psychology of Winning! column to his several other articles and even in reviewing races that clients have sent in, the Doc points out the mental aspects which hold us back or that can propel us forward successfully in this stochastic endeavor. In fact this aspect, the psychological mind set is where I spend the majority of my 'taking stock' time. If this segment is not in order the contender selection has the greatest chance of going awry and I end up with losing races and losing days. The mental portion is such a dynamic portion of each of us that in wagercapping it requires continual focus in order to remain on top.

In the culinary world a stock is made by combining the correct ingredients with the correct procedure. Taking stock of wagercapping is much the same process: combining the correct ingredients (contenders) with the correct procedure (contender guidelines). In the kitchen there are many different stocks that are made and used so the ingredients and the procedure may differ. However, the results will be the same, the taste will be a delicious one just as the wagercapping outcome will be a winning cycle and a delicious feeling.

A third area where we have stock is the livestock itself, the horses. If it were not for this stock we would not have to concern ourselves with the other parts of the equation, Of course we would then miss out on the wonderful gains possible. It is Kentucky Derby time again. The prep races are in full swing and opinions are everywhere. The papers are full of dosage charts, par times, and prep race evaluations. There is a lot of excitement. Hopefully the short priced favorite, a la Fusaicni Pegasus, will not repeat itself this year; and we can all go back to collecting on those wonderful juicy Derby mutuels that we have become accustomed to over the years. The biggest thing to remember about this race is that amongst all the hype and attention it is still only one race. We will not share in the winner's purse ($750,000 plus), and the undercard usually has some great wagercapping opportunities as well. Preparation for the Derby should include reviewing discussion from the Follow Up and Doc's comments and guidelines on contender selection and ELIMINATION. Take time to TAKE STOCK and keep up the winning tradition, a habit worth having.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder...work the plan, be profitable. "Til next time.

[barb craven]

LESSONS (Follow Up # 86)

The race is run; you passed or you bet; you cashed or you lost; but did you get the LESSON?

Lesson. What lesson you may be asking! Why, the lesson contained in each and every race that is run. Win or not win there is significant information for us about the decision-making process we used to arrive at the contenders we backed or to validate why we passed the race. When our results are not measuring up to our expectations what do we do? Where do we go for help? Some call the office; howeve,most successful wagercappers work to solve the problems for themselves.

The information to be found by comparing our individual handicapping decisions to the actual race outcome is the basis for our continuing profitability. After all it is our selections that the program uses to formulate the feedback on the various program screens. OUR SELECTIONS. Therefore if we do not use the results of the completed races as a learning tool we will not know specifically what we are doing that isolates winners or elicits pass decisions in races with poor expectations. In addition, by using our selection histories we will find it easier to maintain a consistency in winning percentage and a positive ROI. The questions about shippers, racing levels, place and show horses, lay offs, and all the other issues we note as we peruse the past performances are resolved in the data from how the race was run relative to our selection criteria. This becomes the reference for the next time we encounter a particular situation in a past performance. However, many aspiring wagercappers ignore this information altogether, content to win or lose on the basis of the information in the down load or the program output. The next time the same doubts present themselves in contender elimination these aspirants are still left with the same answer as before-a big fat 0, no extra help. Others read it and think they will be able to sort and recall these figures from memory, more power to them if they are able to sort and remember accurately. So, how does one turn this dilemma around?

Prior to any of us using the Methodology we had developed a way of going through the past performances and rating contenders while eliminating others. It was a time consuming process. However, before the process each of us had some criteria gleaned and honed from one mainstream system or another. In these systems we wrote down the criteria for our numerical rankings and then wrote down the totaled numbers as we went through the horses one by one to arrive at a ranking for betting purposes. Now that we have moved forward and are using computers to help us with our wagercapping it appears that many of us are neglecting to do some of the essential work that previously was our mainstay as we approached a day at the races. Namely, we no longer WRITE down any of the data that verify relative to wagercapping is to be aware of the gut feelings that accompany a paceline preference. Being able to modify that intuition by using the notes from those races will go a long way to improving each of our profit lines.

It is time to once again pick up those writing tools and begin taking notes. Yes, notes. Start keeping track of WHY you chose a particular line. This enables you to go back and see if your reasoning was on target. The difference between the results of any two Methodologists seems to come down, time after time, to pace line selection. Since the guidelines are the same for everyone using the program, how can personal idiosyncrasies, those that cause fluctuation between paceline selection and contender elimination, be made use of to bring about victory at the windows? We can by referring to our own notes and fine tuning from them rather than trying to blame something or someone else. The 'Psychology of Winning' Key here is to accept personal responsibility for what goes awry as well as for what succeeds. Accepting answerability for our losing choices also enables us to accept our own solutions for getting back into the winning mode. Taking notes on why WE picked certain lines or contenders we begin to see where the strengths and weaknesses are in our individual selections. We are also taking the positive action steps to improve our wagercapping. And gaining an insight into which horses will fill out the #2 and #3 holes thereby improving our results in the exotics pools.

What are these individual differences? There are many unique characteristics among us as a group; and again, it is a way to get at our personal selection biases and to rework them to enable us to better use the program. By better understanding why our personal selections do not match the guideline contenders and the eventual winners, we will be able to adjust our choice making. One of the biggest errors is entering non-contenders in the program. The whys of this may be 1 ) Reaching for a long shot. 2) Using an eyeball method for pace line selection and inclusion in the mix 3) using a lifetime best line that will not be repeated today.

A lesson may be used to turn a non-profitable decision into a winning one next time. Let's take the time to create those lessons.

We still hear the axiom to know thy track. Even more important is know thyself. The Methodology is based on each of us knowing our strengths and weaknesses and converting our liabilities into assets. Know thyself.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder ... work the plan, be profitable. 'Til next time.

[barb craven]

Rites of Spring (Follow Up # 87)

Cold, cold days are still to come. Christmas is behind us and the calendar has expired and been replaced by a new one. Different year, same cycle. Last year's two year olds have become three and are thrust into their teenage racing careers. The grand prize being the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May. Hundreds are nominated and as the racing begins for the two year olds the list begins to dwindle fast. But ahhh, what a glorious time, new growth, new color and new life. It's spring.

April showers bring May flowers and June brides stream forth as nature begins to emerge from the dark, cold days of winter with hope, a swatch of vibrant color, and the warmth of spring. Little green sprouts emerge on seemingly lifeless tree limbs. Caterpillars turn into butterflies. Flower buds do just that. They flower. Rivers run full. Birds return and are chirping away. Baby birds yearn to be fed and to leave the nest. Two year old horses continue to mature hitting their teenage stage where they can be precocious and full of unrealized potential as they add weight and muscle and develop stamina and possibly heart.

The joy to each of us is in watching all of these events unfold. Wagercappers take a special interest not just of the coming three year old season and the races leading up to and including the Triple Crown but in all the horses that have matured a year and will be back on the track in action. Hopefully there will be fuller fields in all the carded events. In any event a new cycle has begun, one in which to relish the possibilities of selecting our won moments and emerging victorious from the betting line.

What the Triple Crown does for handicappers in general is focus interest on three year olds and their owners' drive for the attainment of the coveted prize. This focus culminates in the three big name races with million dollar purses. In order to get into these races though, a number of other races have been written in order to sift through the contenders gleaning the ones that will be most competitive in the three race series. So we have races limited by age for the up and coming showdowns. It also keeps these youngsters from getting beaten up by their elders. In a few instances these races do little more than showcase an over-bet favorite who romps to a winning margin of 10-12 lengths. However, in many others the fields are very competitive and offer outstanding mutuels as an overlooked contender breaks into the limelight. These are the races where Validator excels. The number of "prep" races seem to have expanded as more tracks are including races to get these emerging three year olds on their tracks to boost interest and excitement in horse racing. It is great. The side benefit is that this creates more opportunities to cash in on some nice prices. Sadly it also allows oldstream methods to get greater than usual exposure. This is lamentable for any newcomer but not so sad for profitcappers who need errant wagers to drive up the odds on their own selections.

Once again the Derby was outstanding for Methodologists. Excluding the front runners (not E horses, front runners), of which the favorite POINT GIVEN was one, puts MONARCHOS into a bettable position. The $23 mutuel was a terrific return and further reminder of just how wonderful spring can be. The Run for the Roses was fruitful and profitable. From there POINT GIVEN rebounded to expected form and ran away from fields in the Preakness and the Belmont. This horse beat me in the Preakness and I had no investment in The Bermont. As we look at these last two races one can wonder about the Triple Crown. POINT GIVEN, the favorite had been impressive in Churchill Downs workouts prior to the race. So who knows why he did not run his best race that day. I do know that by not worrying about the investment in MONARCHO (and 3 other horses - the benefit of multi-horse wagering) returned a healthy return. Congratulations to all the Methodologists who used these races to pad their bottom lines.

Not necessarily a sign of spring but optimistically a sign of increasing interest in thoroughbred racing are the number of books currently out about the sport. These are not HOW TO handicapping books but novels about some of the legendary thoroughbreds and even a best selling novel based on this the Sport of Kings. Of course, Dick Francis can be counted on for another mystery and in one of his more recent, Hot Money; he includes the Breeder's Cup races as one of the story lines. Another novel a best seller, is Horse Heaven by Jane Smiley. Trainers, owners and jockeys from Europe and the U.S. are interwoven in this intriguing story culminating in the Breeder's Cup. Laura Hillenbrand's Seabiscuit, An American Legend is also currently on the best seller list. It appears that the Daily Racing from has commissioned a number of its staff writers to compile a set of books on well-known racehorses. These are now available as well. Reading is a tremendous pastime and especially delightful if the books somehow relate to horse racing.

Roses, Black-eyed Susans and Carnations are all in full bloom and the three year olds have run the races for their flower blankets. Is spring sprung? No way. The next big event is, of course, the Breeder's Cup - this year on October 27 at Belmont Park. The preparatory races are spread across the rest of the spring months and into the summer months. July is the month they really get rolling. This helps refresh a time of year that might be referred to as the doldrums of summer. Hot, hard, fast tracks and slimming fields many years lead to an overabundance of short priced races and even short priced racing days. There are enough gems though to keep us going. They do require some patience to uncover. The winning races similar to any investment from which we expect a profit must be clearly isolated and the rest of the races passed. Sometimes it makes for a boring day. This may be a good time to have a good book around to read or even just a plain old 'good read', one for fun and enjoyment while waiting for the next race.

No methods, angles or techniques this time. Just a reminder to take some time to appreciate that which is around you. It may be more help for your bottom line than reminders and directions. There are many of us at times that too easily forget to do just that; enjoy our surroundings. You can always win at the track.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder ... work the plan, be profitable. 'Til next time.

[barb craven]

CYCLES (Follow Up # 88)

"You can observe a lot just by watching". Another gem from that master of memorable and quotable lines, Yogi Berra.

How does this seemingly innocuous line fit into a wagercapping column? We talked about lessons in Follow Up #86 and finished with a reminder to know thyself in order to become or to remain a successful wagercapper. In Follow Up #85 The Doc reiterates that to be successful we must give the program "direction with reflective thought, introspection, focus, dedication and self-esteem and a degree of self-reliance". Whew!! Certainly sounds time consuming, maybe even impossible. Impossible for main stream players that is.

Now let us take a person anyone of us could be, a person who believes there IS a way to turn any race track into a personal bank branch. Whether fortuitously or by design they come to the methodology. They come at a time when the Methodology has evolved from the Synthesis programs and is now at work on the current Validator programs. They seek to win. They aspire to become a successful wagercapper. They buy the program (Validator, of course). Their work begins.

Winning, ah yes, winning begins to take place and not sporadically but regularly and consistently. A corner has been turned. Completed twenty race cycles are demonstrating winning percentages never before thought attainable. Along with the increased winning percentage is the remarkable change in the ROI. For this is the first time finishing on the positive side of the parimutuel ledger for this individual. WOW!

And then POW! What happens? We have mentioned in previous articles a number of things that seemingly go awry after we have each weathered that storm of change. We have moved from being a handicapper to a wagercapper and more propitiously into a profitcapper. We have followed the guidelines, and suddenly we are not winning at the same level we most recently have been. We stop and look back at our recent races to see that we are still following the guidelines that allowed us to transform losing ways into winning ones. What do we find? What does our new wagercapper find?

Here is where Yogi steps in to help "You can observe a lot just by watching", he says. It would be wonderful if we each had a coach to watch us take our parimutuel 'swings' and comment on any noticed deficiency but alas we do not. We can put together several twenty race cycles with readouts and mail them to Beaumont where possibly the office can see something about what we have started doing that we cannot see, something like not seeing the forest for the trees. What are we watching for and what can we observe? What we want to be observing is how and why we select pacelines and how we exclude entrants from consideration that is different from when we were triumphant.

Personal review for correction is how most of us must get back on track, the winning track. But the BIG question remains. How did the winning train get derailed? Our new wagercapping winner is certainly at a loss. He thinks he is doing everything in the same way that produced his winning streak. Is that all it was, a winning streak?, beginners' luck? Aren't they supposed to keep on winning? Why of course they are. The program does not know anything about streaks whether they are winning or non-winning. The program merely calculates and sorts data from the pacelines the wagercapper has selected and presents graphs, charts, and rankings. What must be remembered is the human factor, the decision making factor.

What about this human factor? The program is inanimate and takes away the emotion of 'loving' a horse as well as other oldstream rules. More than just the human factor it is something that can be seen in many other living creatures as well. What is it? What has happened to cause the displacement from one's accustomed place in the cashing line? Could it be simply that winning has become old hat; that the intensity has waned? At times like this wagercappers appear ready to pull their hair out. They cannot seem to put their finger on the reason for the decline and it is unnerving. Are they alone in this dilemma?

If they said yes they would really be ready to throw in the towel. They do know that this is a very solitary venture though and they persist. However, they look around to see what others do who fall prey to the same rut they are in and what to do to get out of it. They remember other wagercappers and even handicappers who take breaks from the races. Some they have even read about some they know personally. They talk about being burned out. Is the wagercapper experiencing burnout? Maybe. I offer another view. Cycles.

Nature is full of cycles. Annual cycles, monthly cycles even daily cycles exist in nature. Cycles are all around us. In our own field 'experts' even spend time trying to figure out and teach us to analyze thoroughbred cycles. So why should we be any different? In this respect I do not think that we are. Just as all professional athletes have streaks of great productivity and then of marked inconsistency I am sure wagercappers do too. What can we do about it is the underlying question. Professional athletes have signed contracts and so day to day fluctuations do not affect their income. It takes a whole season to go bad and for it to be the final year of their contract to make a difference.

However, wagercappers have no guaranteed return from the parimutuel windows so inconsistencies and non-winning streaks for whatever reason are serious, very serious matters. So what to do, what to do? Take a vacation? Maybe. Give up the Dream? No, thank you. Buy someone else's picks? Are you nuts?! Do you think those guys are winning?

Lets go back to the rut. A rut is a path that always looks the same to us. It should because we have worn ourselves into this rut. Same old routine day in and day out. It begins to affect everything we do. Worse we have no coach around to point out the glitch in our 'swing' for the winners to get us out of the rut. If one can think back to their pre-winning days what might be remembered there are the people we sat with daily, our marks on the 'Form' the angles we listened to and looked for, and even the same, repeated comments about how the races would unfold.

Well that cycle was broken and that rut left behind and this one will be also. To get out of this rut look at it a little differently. Of course first we must recheck our process but DO NOT PRESS TOO HARD and DO NOT BET TOO MANY RACES. Success is still there and we certainly do not want to change that. For some reason it seems to have become too repetitive and that is dulling the contender selection and the wagering decisions. Change what then? Well, wagercap on different days if that is possible or a different track. Mostly be aware of each step in the procedure. It could very well be that there is nothing seriously amiss, that it is one of our human and personal cycles. It could be a time to reduce the amount of wagers until the slump has ended. The cycle will end and the greatest disservice to ourselves is if we have confused our methods waiting it out.

The 'Capper here with a race day reminder ... work the plan, be profitable. 'Til next time.