Ted Craven - December

[Ted Craven]

Geez, this is a tough way to make money ...

I've been back over my race choices, my analysis and my bet choices the past few days and, with the exception of Dec 28, FG Race 5, I can't see serious missteps. IMO, the races chosen were playable, the paceline and contender selection decisions are what you might see in the TEACHING forum, and bet decisions were guided, at bet-time, by my long-standing 'wagercapping' approach of 2 horses (when I could do 2), normally Top on BL >= 5/2 plus the highest odds of the next 2 within the Top 3 BL.

It's possible that this was simply the random distribution of outcomes in those races I chose to work. I am trying to get my 20 races done for this final Contest month before New Years, but I do have the time to focus, choose from all races running; I feel calm and confident when I do my normal analysis, and it feels like I am not in 'desperado mode'...

I do see that others have picked up some fine mutuels the past few days - and congratulations to them! - so perhaps it's the luck of the draw of the races I happened to choose (did anyone win races I lost?)

I did pick up some money on Exactas, and played a few Exactas-only which I did not post, so my overall loss is not quite as bad as it looks here. But it's worse than normal for me over 3 days.

Anyway - just throwing this out there! If anyone has guidance, you're hired!

Ted (limping towards New Years eve )

[Hoof 11]

GP - Race 9

After we talked about this race earlier, i wen't over the running lines and this is what i came back with.

Exeter Road Coming off a lay-off, this horse was a bit of a gamble. It was dropping to it's lowest class level in it's last ten starts, and was ranked third in RDSS in class, and second in APV. When this horse last raced on this surface and track, it put up dominating numbers over the rest of today's field, it's lifetime Total Energy rating was dominant over the rest, the question is how fit is this horse coming off a lay-off? It had shown in the past to make bold moves late, which suited today's race with only the 13 as a possible front runner, yes there was other possible front runners but after reviewing the form cycle's of all the runners, it was my take that it would be the 11 or the 13 out front, non of which showed any success running from the lead. I had the 10-1-3-9-13 as top contenders, all with similar Adj Speed ratings, but all roads pointed back to the 10, with the best late E/L Diff, #1 ranked DCL, LPR, HID, and ranked 3rd in TS. I gave the 10 it's 4th running line back, this was a conservative estimation compared to what it had done at GP in the past, either way if this horse was fit it would walk away with this race.

Looking at the breakdown of how i think it would unfold, i would have layed out my wager with the...

10 / 13 / 1-3-9-11 / 1-3-9-11

The 5 would never be considered for it never ran more than 5F, and didn't have the class or Energy ratings to compete with today's field.

The 6 was similar, no class and no numbers to support it could compete with today's runners.

[Ted Craven]

Gil,

Thanks for taking the time to study this particular race (and for the further discussion about it last night with me and Midland Mike, PAIHL team-mates ).

After I'm done my 3 races for today's contest, I'll look further at this and get back to you. I do appreciate the thought!

Happy New Year!

Ted

[Ted Craven]

Dec 31.

AQU R4

$50 Win 1,6

[Ted Craven]

PRX R6

$50 Win 1,4

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Dec 31.

AQU R4

$50 Win 1,6

Loss.







Though the #3 winner was a Contender, there was, IMO, reasonable doubt that it was in tip top condition today, considering the competition, despite the significant class drop, thus I bet against it for the Win, given its very low odds.

There is no reason I should not have included it in Exactas (which I did not) and I am still reviewing my thought process for not doing that. It was a mistake on my part, one which would have recouped (at least) my Win outlay.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

PRX R6

$50 Win 1,4

Win.

[Ted Craven]

AQU R8

$50 Win 9
$25 WP #6

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

AQU R8

$50 Win 9
$25 WP #6

Win.







It's nice to go out on a Win! I judged that The #9 was much the better from its last race Tandem with the #2, plus it was facing far less early pace pressure today. Thus, I discounted the #2 for Win today, though it outranked the #9 on BL/BL (due to higher ranking factors derived from its later gains against the #9's Pace of Race).

A nice Exacta, Tri and Super among the Primary Contenders (none of which I bet).