Wed - 3/2 - GP "Paceless" sprint - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 02-28-2011, 12:21 PM

After reading Pete C and Bill V workup in "Voodoo Fan's thread:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7026

While it is NOT completely "pure" I did find this race running this Wednesday at Gulfstream where NO runner in the past 8 months has had the lead at 1st call at today's sprint structure.

This IS a chaotic race and am looking forward to seeing how the gang attacks it, I will learn something cause I hate these races to be honest

Wednesday March 2nd - Gulfstream - Race 6 going 6.5f on the dirt

Conditions, entries, APV and Class ratings

RichieP · 02-28-2011, 12:22 PM

pps with tandem finishes shown

RichieP · 02-28-2011, 12:24 PM

,,.

rmath · 02-28-2011, 12:41 PM

Richie, the 6 horse Exclusive Woman tried to go 7f wire to wire exactly 8 mnths ago in 23.1 46.4 112.5 126.5 losing by 1.9l.
Would not this be the race to use as the pace to match all the others against.
I am fairly new to the match up procedures and not sure of what to do with this race.

rmath · 02-28-2011, 06:08 PM

Ritchie,
I put the wrong date on my reply, should be 3/2 GP

RichieP · 02-28-2011, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmath

Richie, the 6 horse Exclusive Woman tried to go 7f wire to wire exactly 8 mnths ago in 23.1 46.4 112.5 126.5 losing by 1.9l.
Would not this be the race to use as the pace to match all the others against.
I am fairly new to the match up procedures and not sure of what to do with this race.

Hi Richard
Great question!

What I am going to do is use "Hat's" 2nd method of projecting a pace from his 5 step approach. Going to find the fastest pace from last race with an up close runner from todays track and distance. HERE is his quote directly from the 5 step approach:

2. Find the horse that has run the best against the fastest pace in his last race, at today's track, and at today's distance. Tandem races are good races used in this procedure. If none of the horse have run at today's distance consider any fast sprint, or any fast route line. This horse is the pace horse that all the other horses will be matched against.

So that being said I am going to use the #1 "Just Plain Wayne" as my target right from the last race at todays track and 6.5f distance
22.2 - 45.8 ( in tenths)

Lets see the other guys feelings and write ups

RichieP · 02-28-2011, 07:24 PM

Punching in the above posts proj pace these are the lines that "light up" matching or exceeding today's proj pace AND showing in the money finish.

Form cycle analysis and contenders etc etc are left to the individuals "Minds Eye"

Just an observation BEFORE deciding on who is in form to be able to go back for lines and before deciding if a horse has changed his habitual running style recently:
There is ONE runner in the mix who shows multiple styles against today's proj pace.

SilentRun · 03-01-2011, 04:18 PM

Richie,

As far as multiple running styles to me it is clearly the 4 horse..(S/E/P/EP/SP).

Re: the 1 and 1a ...It is a coin toss to decide which to include but I used the 1
based on your choice of the projected pace.

#1 - The horse has not raced in 54 days and had a modest 4f workout 8 days ago.
In addition the trainer is bumping the horse to a higher class (10 -15)
RDSS is also projecting that there are stronger contenders. I would not bet this horse.

#4 This is a versatile horse...won 2x's at 6.5 (likes this distance), won at 6f and won at 8F. Came out first on the RDSS food chain. Strong contender.

#2 RDSS projects this horse to be the most early...The indicators that I track for sprints are very positive for this horse: E/L, SC, E/ep, EPR and TT =1
The horse was off for 52 days after running ITM at CL25. Now dropping to CL 15I think the trainer is looking to cash at this level. Strong contender.

#8 Also projects early but that was using the 3rd line back at an alw level.
Plus the horse performed weak in it's last race. May run ITM but would not
bet to win.

BTW on the 2 and 4.

This race also offers an exotic play amounst the 1,2,4 and 8.

Ernie

atlasaxis · 03-02-2011, 01:33 AM

I tried to post a screen shot of the Taulbot Pace calc output for this race but couldn't figure out how to do it. It came up with 3-2-1-8.

PeteC · 03-02-2011, 10:00 AM

Good morning guys…

Running Styles:As Richie pointed out, I don’t see any horse recently on the lead, or trying for the lead, in a sprint.

With #4 though, I see early potential today. The last race shows a big win running wtw in a route. Off these kinds of wins I always go back and try to find stronger power lines to evaluate from. In this case, I went to line 8. This horse was in a 3-way fight for the lead at 1C against a 21.9 (tenths). It took the lead from there and opened up to win by 10 lengths. I also see lines winning from 3rd position at 1C. This is a multi-dimensional horse with a combination of successful styles.

The other runners are currently OTE in my opinion.

Early or OTE:I feel that this field of mostly pressers and sustained runners creates a pace scenario that favors early. When I blend #4’s lines I see this as a potential early horse today who also does not need the lead to win. It can win wtw if nobody wants the lead (line 1), or fighting for it at the 1C (line 8), or sitting off the pace and winning from 3rd position (lines 4 and 6).

Match-UpI’ll match #4 (21.9 45.6 – fighting, but doesn’t need the lead) against the OTE runners in the race.

#1: A strong presser. The last line moved 3-2-2-2, fighting at the stretch and finish against a 22.5 45.8….Contender
#1A: A tricky one for me. Going back to line 5, I would favor this one strongly over #1 and see it as a threat to #4. Based on the more recent races, I don’t see going back to that power line though. OUT
#2: A presser or sustained runner. Decent race last out, beating #4. No other stronger power lines though, and #4 appears to be a different horse today…OUT
#3: I see 46 fractions for this ones best races…OUT
#5: Last two races are ugly, can’t seeing going back beyond those…OUT
#6: Strong late run at a mile last out. The race was slower than #4’s mile race though and there are no other power lines to recommend this one..OUT
#7: Not much to like off the last 4 races…OUT
#8: This one is a little interesting. Line three shows a win vs 21.7 at Calder, which usually produces slower fractions.

I don’t see enough from the OTE runners to take me off the #4. I’ll take #4 as my choice to win.

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02-28-2011, 12:21 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Wed - 3/2 - GP "Paceless" sprint After reading Pete C and Bill V workup in "Voodoo Fan's thread: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7026 While it is NOT completely "pure" I did find this race running this Wednesday at Gulfstream where NO runner in the past 8 months has had the lead at 1st call at today's sprint structure. This IS a chaotic race and am looking forward to seeing how the gang attacks it, I will learn something cause I hate these races to be honest Wednesday March 2nd - Gulfstream - Race 6 going 6.5f on the dirt Conditions, entries, APV and Class ratings Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

02-28-2011, 12:22 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	pps with tandem finishes shown Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

02-28-2011, 12:24 PM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	,,. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

02-28-2011, 12:41 PM	#4
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	3/3 GP 6th Richie, the 6 horse Exclusive Woman tried to go 7f wire to wire exactly 8 mnths ago in 23.1 46.4 112.5 126.5 losing by 1.9l. Would not this be the race to use as the pace to match all the others against. I am fairly new to the match up procedures and not sure of what to do with this race.

02-28-2011, 06:08 PM	#5
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	wrong date Ritchie, I put the wrong date on my reply, should be 3/2 GP

02-28-2011, 07:24 PM	#7
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Punching in the above posts proj pace these are the lines that "light up" matching or exceeding today's proj pace AND showing in the money finish. Form cycle analysis and contenders etc etc are left to the individuals "Minds Eye" Just an observation BEFORE deciding on who is in form to be able to go back for lines and before deciding if a horse has changed his habitual running style recently: There is ONE runner in the mix who shows multiple styles against today's proj pace. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 02-28-2011 at 07:32 PM.

03-01-2011, 04:18 PM	#8
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Gp race 6 Richie, As far as multiple running styles to me it is clearly the 4 horse..(S/E/P/EP/SP). Re: the 1 and 1a ...It is a coin toss to decide which to include but I used the 1 based on your choice of the projected pace. #1 - The horse has not raced in 54 days and had a modest 4f workout 8 days ago. In addition the trainer is bumping the horse to a higher class (10 -15) RDSS is also projecting that there are stronger contenders. I would not bet this horse. #4 This is a versatile horse...won 2x's at 6.5 (likes this distance), won at 6f and won at 8F. Came out first on the RDSS food chain. Strong contender. #2 RDSS projects this horse to be the most early...The indicators that I track for sprints are very positive for this horse: E/L, SC, E/ep, EPR and TT =1 The horse was off for 52 days after running ITM at CL25. Now dropping to CL 15I think the trainer is looking to cash at this level. Strong contender. #8 Also projects early but that was using the 3rd line back at an alw level. Plus the horse performed weak in it's last race. May run ITM but would not bet to win. BTW on the 2 and 4. This race also offers an exotic play amounst the 1,2,4 and 8. Ernie Attached Images

03-02-2011, 01:33 AM	#9
atlasaxis Grade 3 Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 71	I tried to post a screen shot of the Taulbot Pace calc output for this race but couldn't figure out how to do it. It came up with 3-2-1-8.

03-02-2011, 10:00 AM	#10
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Good morning guys… Running Styles:As Richie pointed out, I don’t see any horse recently on the lead, or trying for the lead, in a sprint. With #4 though, I see early potential today. The last race shows a big win running wtw in a route. Off these kinds of wins I always go back and try to find stronger power lines to evaluate from. In this case, I went to line 8. This horse was in a 3-way fight for the lead at 1C against a 21.9 (tenths). It took the lead from there and opened up to win by 10 lengths. I also see lines winning from 3rd position at 1C. This is a multi-dimensional horse with a combination of successful styles. The other runners are currently OTE in my opinion. Early or OTE:I feel that this field of mostly pressers and sustained runners creates a pace scenario that favors early. When I blend #4’s lines I see this as a potential early horse today who also does not need the lead to win. It can win wtw if nobody wants the lead (line 1), or fighting for it at the 1C (line 8), or sitting off the pace and winning from 3rd position (lines 4 and 6). Match-UpI’ll match #4 (21.9 45.6 – fighting, but doesn’t need the lead) against the OTE runners in the race. #1: A strong presser. The last line moved 3-2-2-2, fighting at the stretch and finish against a 22.5 45.8….Contender #1A: A tricky one for me. Going back to line 5, I would favor this one strongly over #1 and see it as a threat to #4. Based on the more recent races, I don’t see going back to that power line though. OUT #2: A presser or sustained runner. Decent race last out, beating #4. No other stronger power lines though, and #4 appears to be a different horse today…OUT #3: I see 46 fractions for this ones best races…OUT #5: Last two races are ugly, can’t seeing going back beyond those…OUT #6: Strong late run at a mile last out. The race was slower than #4’s mile race though and there are no other power lines to recommend this one..OUT #7: Not much to like off the last 4 races…OUT #8: This one is a little interesting. Line three shows a win vs 21.7 at Calder, which usually produces slower fractions. I don’t see enough from the OTE runners to take me off the #4. I’ll take #4 as my choice to win.