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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-22-2019, 03:43 PM   #51
Mitch44
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Hello Bill,
Glad I can be of help and wish you tremendous success. Trying to break some of this stuff down, simplify and conquer.

The top 3 TPR and V/DC is tough to beat. Total Energy is no slouch but many can more easily decipher the TPR ratings because their on a scale of 100. I generally start my analysis there.

The V/DC contains other factors such as FX, HE and is the best factor Sartin ever devised. I completely understand it but a member doesn't need to know all that to be successful. Just employ it, drive that truck and leave all the internal workings to the designers / builders.

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Old 06-23-2019, 10:52 AM   #52
Mitch44
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Follow Up # 51 Interpretation of Readouts

" The problem with those who have a problem is that they don't want to know what time it is, they want to know how to build a watch." This a false road to travel down because one doesn't need to know, all they have to do is employ it (RDSS) within its capabilities and limitations. I know nothing about the mechanical workings of a car, when it breaks down I call a tow truck, however I can operate a car to accomplish my goals with it.

Because of thieves and some being trusted members, Sartin was smart enough to disguise certain formula's. They got greedy and ended up with basics. There is stuff within todays RDSS that the general public still doesn't use. We still have an edge.
Sartin was big on understanding concept, you do not need to know its inner workings to employ it. Just follow instructions or take a few driving lessons and you can extract or employ it to its maximum capability.

There are those that keep making excuses for losing, there always a conspiracy by trainers, jockeys, drugs to fix races etc., when in fact its them that are the problem. Fact of the matter is even if a race was fixed I have just as much of a chance to get the winner as anybody else does.

" These are the same kinds of people who always seem to find losers with whom to hang out and consult." I call these players NIP'S which is an acronym standing for Negative Influence People. If you hang around them they bring you down to their level as we tend to take on our environment.They are a distraction that cause you to make mistakes. Bradshaw called them the "rowdy bunch," One of Lt1 (Tim) and I coming of age at seminars was we were invited to sit at Leroi and Jimmy's table. It wasn't a time for stupid questions. A time to talk and other times to keep your mouth shut, we weren't NIP'S.

Winners know that no matter what they'll, " lose at least 28% to 30%."In this game dwelling on a lost is extremely destructive and greatly effects your game; Dwell on the winners, a series of races not anyone loss.

"Readouts are far better interpreted if you don't spend too much time interpreting them and if you just use the ones that work for you the most consistently. Trying to zig zag with various readouts is as disastrous as 'modeling' too many factors. A few consistent vital factors correlated with a secondary source(readout or program) is all that is necessary to win." Two vital factors are V/DC and BLBL. I'm amazed at how many don't use V/DC, even those that have been around awhile. They don't understand it so don't use it or they fail to keep records. Yes records as their lazy and when it comes to some work their out of here. They can't follow directions to learn how to drive the car and want to be mechanics.

"...place horses do not necessary come from the same readouts as a winner and quite often show horses DO." Again work and records.

The rest of this follow up discusses the Factor Evaluator which is no longer appropriate for the present RDSS due to the passing of Sartin. Once again understand concept and make your own Factor Evaluator. All that is needed is a piece of paper and a pen. In this series I gave you some things I would model or evaluate. Your free to choose whatever you want but do some work and quit being lazy, you'll be glad you did.

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Old 06-24-2019, 09:28 AM   #53
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FU # 52 The Fallacy of Keeping a BIG DATA BASE

Pg.13 "... many handicappers and, especially, purveyors of handicapping procedures, came to the erroneous decision that the more handicapping factors one modeled, the better. Bigger became synonymous with best.

"A lot of handicappers, more interested in analyzing computer readouts than in winning, brought into this fraudulent concept and began keeping reams of voluminous records of every factor known to handicapping..."

"Fortunately for them they became so absorbed in keeping up with their data base that they had no time to reach viable decisions or to wager thereupon."

" They are like someone waiting for "just the right mate."

pg.14 "Brohamer NEVER intended for anyone to keep an elongated model. He has always been quite specific about that.

"Persons who insist on large data bases that model too many factors, seem to be also endowed with personalities that avoid judgement calls." These large data bases do nothing but cause confusion to those keeping them and causes indecision in separating contenders or finalizing which two horses to bet. The information overload confuses the brain housing group into indecision.

"What happen YESTERDAY is more important than what happed last week." I would take that a step further when it comes to a track profile. Track maintenance crews
can change a track from what it even was running YESTERDAY. Therefore all that data in keeping a track profile becomes invalid. Watch how races are being run today and compare to how the winner normally runs. If he normally runs inn the vicinity of 1:11 for 6F and runs 1:10 you know the track has changed and became faster. This frequently happens for a big race day as they like fast times and perhaps new track records. Because of a shortage of horses many tracks have went from running 7 days a week to only 4. Beware after those 3 days off as to what the track may be today. Observe the first few races and be ahead of the crowd.

" Factor evaluation or"modeling" should be based on those variables that best predicated the outcome correctly." We talked about the Factor evaluator and to create your own based on the president day RDSS not something from a program from yesterday.You only need 4 to 5 for this, to zero in on the most important factors. If they fail, evaluate another 4 or 5 till you find the best ones. Once that is accomplished you can than zero in on Place horses etc. Does the CR or counter energy horse get the Place a high percentage of the time?

To simply this I recommend you keep a record of say 25 races and use that as a small data base. Then whenever an idea pops in your head you can quickly check it out.

Do a post mortem after a race and if you made a mistake on a contender or a pace line correct it. You're trying to find out what is important in the program. The program should not be held accountable for your mistakes. This also allows you to correct your problems to become better from being aware of weaknesses.

Your looking for the best factors here, factors that work across all distances and surfaces, so distances and surfaces are unimportant to this. Yes of course if you had 25 races all on turf you may find a particular factor such as HE that may be more important at a particular distance or surface. That's fine later but what your really looking for are the big nuggets that outweigh everything else that work across all distances and surfaces.

Sartin always said to use 20 races for an evaluation of something. He said that what happens in 20 races is the same thing that will happen in 100 races. If your worried about a statistical error than you can use 21 races to smooth it out. This has served me very well over the years and has saved me much work, I also have been able to zero in on some things much faster, again saving a lot of work. Forget these big data bases as their completely unnecessary.

Simplify all this to prevent information overload and to zero in like a GPS device for the factors that will make you a winner.

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Old 06-24-2019, 10:36 AM   #54
Mitch44
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I was in a rush in my last post and was remised in that I forgot to mention that LT1 alerted me to the fact of Parx dramatically changing after a 3 day break. Other tracks are running less now also due to a shorter of horses to go around.


Even in the summer some tracks change due to lack of watering between races, to save money.


I play so many different tracks its hard to keep up with them, therefore I rely on the Bris summary for a rough idea and the matchup. In the majority of cases one could ignore all this and reply on the match up. It has served me very well.


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Old 06-24-2019, 11:07 AM   #55
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Hi Mitch. With regards to Parx it does tend to change after their 3 day break. I wouldn't call it a radical shift but it does pay to watch the first few on Saturdays. The same goes for all tracks after several dark days. As Doc always said "Know your track[s]".
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Old 06-24-2019, 02:30 PM   #56
elocutionist
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I want to thank Mitch and all those who contributed to this discussion. I started to re-read the follow ups and in context with your discussions, things seem clearer to me. Doc Sartin stated many times to hide horses less than 5-2. Some of you do and some don't. Id like to know the reasons for your choice. Also, what is the proper way to hide in RDSS, is it just move the horse to non contender status or de-select a paceline. Thanks again.
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Old 06-24-2019, 04:17 PM   #57
Mitch44
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Hello Phil,
One can hide a horse by either moving it to noncontender status or to de-select the pace line. I don't like hiding horses because we tend to forget about the horse doing either one. If not a win contender it could very well be a prime candidate for Place and a EX. For me its out of sight and out of mind. I would much rather leave it in and discount it mentally.

Sartin brought pace to a whole new level and now many use and talk of his concepts and advancements. Hence the average price of his winners has dropped. With all this he began to wager cap. If he still was with us today would he still be advocating wager capping? I guess I'm in the Bradshaw camp on this one. He loved a winner regardless of what it payed.

To simplify wager capping, it is nothing more than taking advantage of the public's mistakes and seeking out good overlays.

I myself am not of fan of wager capping, I believe in picking winners. Winners are the key to all Exotic bets and without winners the game can't be profitable.

For my low odds choices they may become a key horse. I don't care if a horse pays $4.60 I ask the question of;How can I make money out of this race or situation? I have hit plenty of good Ex. over $30 with a low paying favorite and also DD's.Try hitting a P3, 4 or P6 and leaving out a favorite. I structure my bet to fit my handicapping.

By picking winners it also sharpens your skill to pick winners, you have to be able to perform better than the crowd, it sharpens the mind.If you can find a key horse you still can make a profit and reduce your extension (outlay of cash), which also increases ones bottom line.


My biggest concern and another huge reason I also don't hide horses when I'm down to my top 5 contenders is because they can have an effect on the true match up of the race, especially if they own one or more of the dream race fractions.(Rank # 1 in any Dream Race Fraction) Most winners come from owning one or more of the Dream Race Fractions. Scratching them will skew the readouts and your results.

I do at times downgrade a high ranked horse who I deem not to be the same horse that earned that good rating. Or in other word a false favorite or a false contender. Not all favorites are created equal nor are all longshots created equal either. Sometimes these decisions are easy and other times their difficult to access. A valid question always is to ask;Is this the same horse that earned that high rating? I always analyze my contenders PP's for further information, this isn't a black box.

There are days when hiding works and other days where the favorites keep winning and kill you by not hiding from the finish line. I don't want to give up 33% to 40% (favorites win rate) going into a race and hiding all favorites. To me that's insane. note: Favorites win close to 40% now, especially now without enough horses to fill races and so many tracks open this time of the year.

Bottom line its a players prerogative, but not for me.


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Old 06-24-2019, 05:11 PM   #58
elocutionist
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Thanks Mitch, what you say makes a lot of sense. I've been struggling on when to pass or play a race based on a lower price horse who is legitimate. They do win a lot.
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Old 06-24-2019, 06:32 PM   #59
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I also don't hide low paying favorites preferring to do as Mitch does. I do mentally move horses up and down the RX+ tiers based on other factors I use.
Tim
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Old 06-24-2019, 07:00 PM   #60
Bill V.
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Let the race tell you what to do

I don't hide horses for the same reason Mitch wrote about,
and like LT1 writes, I move horses around. I do this on the Phase 1/TPR screen.
My contenders are based on my feelings about the EPR, LPR TPR, and VDC readouts and their relationship,

I almost exclusively bet horizontals,I am no longer a win better, I do bet place and show based on the factors mentioned above. In the case yesterday I bet win on two horses as a backup bet to my Pick 4

I demonstrated this race yesterday in this thread I added the Phase 1 TPR screen so if you are interested you can see the readouts, and why I placed
horses as not contenders

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...787#post121787
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