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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 06-07-2019, 03:11 PM   #21
Mitch44
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FU #46 Adjustments-Part 2
pg.7 " I stress currently because we are in the process of producing an even superior procedure.

In other words they were constantly evolving to make a better mouse trap. These adjustments are to be made off the dream race.
" Over years of testing , at last we have managed, at last, to create FRACTIONAL DIFFERENTIALS for each distance, dirt or turf. In the broadest sense of the word, these constitute UNIVERALSAL PARS. Not TIME Pars, but FRACTIONAL DIFFERENTIAL PARS.These are based on universal laws of deceleration and have proven successful at ALL tracks tested, including those of less that a mile in circumstances. They also apply to turf races and off-tracks." I take this to mean that at the time they were working on what we now know as V/DC. His best Factor of all. This all takes place behind the scenes. Once again its taken from the dream race, entirely too much math to do by hand and prone to mistakes.

Quad Rater and Fractals were a test ground for the future, as every program developed was an improvement to what we now have today.

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Old 06-08-2019, 01:46 AM   #22
Lefty
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Another good takaway: Doc said you have o learn to pass races with no value or too many question marks.
Today I handicapped six races and had to pass all 6 because of no value. Tomorrow is another day.
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Old 06-08-2019, 10:18 PM   #23
Mr.Pagine
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Fascinating Topic

Team,
This a great discussion.
The goal is to always get better.
Where can I find this reading material?

Happy Punting!!
Jon
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Old 06-09-2019, 12:05 AM   #24
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Mr Pagine, all Follow Ups are available here:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=57
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"There is something about the outside of a horse
that is good for the inside of a man"
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Old 06-09-2019, 08:46 AM   #25
Mr.Pagine
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Much appreciated

Thank you dogkatcher!
Enjoy the day!!

Happy Punting.
Jon
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Old 06-09-2019, 11:50 AM   #26
Lefty
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I passed 6 races Friday, but Sat at GP had 3 nice wins from 4 races. Still had to pass some that were taken off the Turf. As I said, always another day.
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Old 06-09-2019, 12:17 PM   #27
Bill V.
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passing

Hi Chuck

I am glad you won and jumped in a few races, It is great to pass
but Doc writes and talks about in the video 0ne - One that beware of getting too involved in passing

Do you bet at a track or online of OTB ?

Thanks
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Old 06-09-2019, 04:09 PM   #28
Lefty
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Thanks, Bill. I only pass if I get no value or have too many question marks on a race.
I play at a racebook in North Las Vegas,
Chuck
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Old 06-14-2019, 10:39 AM   #29
Mitch44
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Sorry for not posting, I've been away the last week.

In my last post we talked about adjustment and in Follow Up # 46 Sartin stated they were already in the process of creating adjustments that would produce an even superior procedure.

To understand how all these adjustments are made and concept read the following 2 articles: Follow Up # 82 page #27 Probability Convergence
F U # 85 pg. 5 Probability Convergence



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Last edited by Mitch44; 06-14-2019 at 10:44 AM.
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Old 06-15-2019, 11:00 AM   #30
Mitch44
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If you haven't done a complete race by hand using just a calculator you can't appreciate all the math involved of doing just Phase 3. And with that many calculations involved its very often is subject to mistakes.With expanded memory and competition that drove the price down on computers the Methodology quickly advances to greater win proficiency.

From that Probability Convergence was born, using Chaos Mathematics. Chaos Mathematics is nothing more than combining two factors to create a new factor. I.e. taking the 2nd FR and 3rd FR and making HE (hidden energy) or compounded factors.

We talked about the 3 FPS FR.'s that were used to create the Dream Race and match up the contenders. What Sartin did was to take the 7 Primary Factors etc. and made the dream race from that. The highest for each factor would get 100 and the rest were weighted according to how far they were from the best or 100 horse for that category. They went through several changes before finding out that weighting them performed best. Sartin doesn't give us the formula for the weighting but it wouldn't be hard to figure out. His stuff was being stolen so much that most of this stuff was hidden from view. Entropy was a forerunner to this and Validator.

What they did next was a huge step. To all of the above they added Total Energy and it evolved into V/DC. Adding Total Energy proportionally to the factor being measured.
pg. 31 talks about using the F6 function. All this did was to measure a line in the horses PP's to select the proper pace line. Again this was an advanced concept that morphed into what we now know as the Preceptor.
Sartin stress's not to use a line where it was beaten more than 7.75 or 7 3/4 lengths and to focus on the last 3 comparable, go back 4 lines if it has a line that wasn't at a comparable distance.Comparable distance is within 1 furlong of todays distance.


Part 2 of Convergence:
pg. 7 Sartin "I worked for two decades to get the proper weighting,"

pg. 10 " Let the public go on suffering from the innate fallibility of using visual perceptions and "lengths." We're a computerized Method. The computerized ESP(L) is far superior to attempting to determine ESP(L)with the naked eye."

I have stressed the importance of the computer ESP ( %MED) over the visual in several of my previous posts.

Pg 10 "Assigning ESP to runners from a purely visual perspective proved dangerous even to the most insightful of both our users and teachers."

"the now extinct Phase III. Its only value today is getting low priced favorites."


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