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Old 03-20-2009, 11:51 AM   #1
Tim Y
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when baloney gains credibility

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics

http://www.ibiblio.org/rdu/a-liestt.html

http://everything2.com/title/How%252...2520statistics

"A pleasantly subversive little book, Guaranteed to undermine your faith in the almighty statistic."—Atlantic

The last is a great primer to exemplify how it works. This text from 1954, How to Lie with Statistics" (by Darrell Huff) was a suggested reading when we were learning about experimental design and the statistical analysis that zoology studies so often create. A cancer study was the prime example done in Sweden. Cancer clusters were correlated to living in proximity to power lines. Only problem to the study was that the researchers never looked at other populations exposed to the same environment that did NOT get cancer of any kind so the study was exposed as “framed specifically to draw a pre-determined conclusion and had no adequate control.”

Most of the “stats” we see in sports are of the raw variety never having been subjected to the analysis, framing and repeated scrutiny that a scientific study would require before it’s finding would be accepted by the general scientific community.

When our best quarterback won the Heisman Trophy in 1968 (Gary Beban), it was said that HIS only deficiency was HIS pass completion average. Those who had watched him all year knew that he was saddled with some of the most MEDIOCRE receivers in the league who dropped ball after ball put right in their hands, YET that was HIS statistic and not one where the causation could be attributed.

Mike Pizzolla reported a cohort at the track who slavishly utilized trainer statistics and went on and one about how the trainer was so many percentage points when a horse was dropping and that his filly winning percentage was so and so, TOTALLY disregarding the out of form, totally in decline filly that was right in front of him today’s race. How can the secondary statistics of a trainer have ANYTHING to do with the INDIVIDUAL right there is front of you? ….was his conclusion. Wake up! it is the horse not the connections that is there in the race.

Study the “flash in the pan” trainers like Cam Gambolotti or Louie Rousel. Were their stats reflective of their competence the year they both had GOOD Triple Crown horses, or were they skewed by the relative colts they had in their barns Spend A Buck and Risen Star? Would old Grover Buddy Delp’s graded stakes statistics be better or worse in 1979-80 as compared with 1984-85? The good horse he had in the barn, THE INDIVIDUAL, made his association with him look FAR better than his talents projected.

Attributing cause and effect where that connection is both spurious and diluted is not logical. Imagine a trainer with two excellent mudders in a barn of 30 horses. A stat on the TRAINER’S ability with mudders would be diluted by the total number of wins of ALL of those horses and thus LOST or averaged out as to be of no use at all while LOOKING at the individuals, the horse’s right in front of you, would locate the author of that mudder ability and not just who managed them.

The individuals in front of you, the ones that are in or out of form, those that match up to today’s pace structure, the ones that are there competing today are the ONLY ones to look at with any degree of confidence. PERIOD
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Old 03-20-2009, 12:13 PM   #2
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Great job Tim!!! Could not agree with you more. I happen to sit with a trainer friend of mine at Tampa Bay Downs and i was having a dicussion with her on this. She told me as a trainer you have to treat each horse in her barn as an individual, some love work and to race and some need rest. Example, if i have 1 horse in my barn who runs bang up races running every 15 days does that mean every horse i send out with 15 days rest going to win? No. Stats can be very misleading as u mentioned. I like the old saying, "Statistics are like an atractive women in a bikini, they reveal alot, but don't tell the whole story."

Bob
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Old 03-20-2009, 12:21 PM   #3
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A good reminder from a site at Wikipedia;
Correlation does not imply causation is a phrase used in the sciences and the statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not *automatically* imply that one causes the other, although it is a powerful hint. The phrase's opposite, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. The fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this") and false cause.
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Old 03-20-2009, 01:11 PM   #4
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Now, you would both be correct......if everyone used that stats the way you incorrectly assume we do.

It never ceases to amaze me how much some people think they know about what other people are doing. As in this case, they are wrong, but happy. Tim is always lost in the means and never gets to the ends.
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Old 03-20-2009, 01:22 PM   #5
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Reductionists never understand that the source, in the framework of the SPECIFIC situation, is the answer not the diluted stats
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Old 03-20-2009, 01:40 PM   #6
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The sample framing is often a failure as Wikipedia also notes:
Sampling frame

In the most straightforward case, such as the sentencing of a batch of material from production (acceptance sampling by lots), it is possible to identify and measure every single item in the population and to include any one of them in our sample. However, in the more general case this is not possible. There is no way to identify all rats in the set of all rats. There is no way to identify every voter at a forthcoming election (in advance of the election).

These imprecise populations are not amenable to sampling in any of the ways below and to which we could apply statistical theory.

As a remedy, we seek a sampling frame which has the property that we can identify every single element and include any in our sample. The most straightforward type of frame is a list of elements of the population (preferably the entire population) with appropriate contact information. For example, in an opinion poll, possible sampling frames include:

* Electoral register
* Telephone directory

Not all frames explicitly list elements of the population. For example, a street map can be used as a frame for a door-to-door survey; although it doesn't show individual houses, we can select streets from the map and then visit all houses on those streets. (One advantage of such a frame is that it would include people who have recently moved and are not yet on the list frames discussed above.)

The sampling frame must be representative of the population and this is a question outside the scope of statistical theory demanding the judgment of experts in the particular subject matter being studied. All the above frames omit some people who will vote at the next election and contain some people who will not; some frames will contain multiple records for the same person. People not in the frame have no prospect of being sampled. Statistical theory tells us about the uncertainties in extrapolating from a sample to the frame. In extrapolating from frame to population, its role is motivational and suggestive.
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Old 03-20-2009, 01:46 PM   #7
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biggest source of error is right here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_error
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Old 03-20-2009, 02:08 PM   #8
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suggesting a conclusion where there isn't one, or going fishing, an apropos title
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/concthre.php
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Old 03-20-2009, 04:41 PM   #9
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tom,
don't waste your time.
For you TY stop this BS of demagoguery to gain handicapping power, which in my opinion you don't have any.
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Old 03-20-2009, 04:48 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gl45 View Post
tom,
don't waste your time.
For you TY stop this BS of demagoguery to gain handicapping power, which in my opinion you don't have any.
Questioning, with valid reasoning, is questioning not demagoguery.I waded through years of scientific statistics and experimental design to come to these conclusions. What is your background?


Give some SUBSTANTIATED data to oppose the inherent error in the argument and them your position might have some credibility Until then you have no intellectual challenge.
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