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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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06-13-2014, 10:25 AM | #21 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Del race 4
She's Animated ran again yesterday at Delaware The track was sloppy
This time there was another E7 in the race - Horse 5 She's Animated was in Post 1 so I considered the chance that she would either break first and get the lead or that the 5 would also try for the lead and use too much energy early. # 7 Barbs Beauty is also a early type but being on the outside Maybe she would hold back and let them go I used line 1 Its a + line but also a trouble line , I figured she would be in position 3 again today Here is the Phase 1 screen Look how # 1 has the best EPR rating. Horse 5 is in trouble right here. Horse 1 She's could go wire to wire. If she fails who will catch her ? That is the decision. Is it horse 7 or 4. At this point I would go to thoromation but just using Phase I I would look at total pace and total energy and energy excretion. Once again thank you to Ted for putting everything in Phase 1 on one screen. Horse 7 and 4 are tied on TPR but horse 7 has a 2 point advantage on total energy. As for as energy horse 4 and 7 both use there energy more early than late If horse 4 had the same readouts but had a higher lp than ep I would have bet the 4 The phase 1 bets here would be 1 and 7 split 60/40 |
08-25-2014, 09:50 PM | #22 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 20
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Bill: That was an excellent work up. If you could post more of these and keep explaining your logic, that would be great. I like the way you thought in regards of early vs. late pace. That made sense.
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