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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 02-25-2016, 09:00 AM   #11
lone speed
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Lonespeed

Thanks, I kind of look at it a blending of 4 concepts
1. My interpretation of the Hat Check 5 steps
2. Form factors, more importantly looking for form defects that will
effect the match up. Especially early pace horses,
3. The pace line selection outline from the Pace Line Manual
4. The Phase 1 methodology,
a. Running the last line on every horse in the race
b. Finding the fulcrum horse
c. eliminating non competitive horses by matching their
EP, LP,and TPR energy expenditures relative to the other horses
in the race, and also against it's total pp shown history.
d. looking for horses with advantages on EP,LP, and TPR

GS
Bill
After some careful thinking, I should have realized that Bill V's routine is best in the sense that it is not mechanical but one works on the match up. After concluding on the pacelines of true contenders, one can work on the matchup of the race with visual tools by evaluating the energy sticks of the Early/Late graph if one is visually inclined or using the Phase One energy distribution numbers if one is more numbers inclined.

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Old 02-25-2016, 09:49 AM   #12
lone speed
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Great post Bill



Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Lonespeed

Thanks, I kind of look at it a blending of 4 concepts

1. My interpretation of the Hat Check 5 steps

2. Form factors, more importantly looking for form defects that will
effect the match up. Especially early pace horses,

Form defects as in Negative Class Droppers..if a horse just won recently at a much higher purse structure then why a big drop in class in today's lower purse...Strike while the iron is hot?? I rather select a sharp horse stepping up in class, anyday...

3. The pace line selection outline from the Pace Line Manual

4. The Phase 1 methodology,
a. Running the last line on every horse in the race


b. Finding the fulcrum horse
The concept of the fulcrum horse has been a concept from Michael Pizzolla but I opine that it can be used in its simplicity by evaluating the energy screen of Sartin programs or in RDSS. The number #1 E/EP ranked horse is sometimes not the horse who exhibits the highest energy in the F1 screen of energy. Sometimes the horse with the number #1 E/EP horse actually has the highest F2 energy but is deficient in energy at F1. This is important because this horse will be force to expend more energy early in today's matchup while losing its effective F2 energy to win today's matchup.


c. eliminating non competitive horses by matching their
EP, LP,and TPR energy expenditures relative to the other horses
in the race, and also against it's total pp shown history.
By evaluating the Early/Late graph, one must evaluate whether a horse might be too far back to be effective in today's match up; an example might be a horse with a late energy distribution of (-27)....yes on turf it might not be an issue but on the dirt of the main track, it will compromise its late kick advantage because the early pace match up will force this horse to expend its energy early to stay in contact with the early pace setters.


d. looking for horses with advantages on EP,LP, and TPR

Be aware of the horse with an early pace advantage in a field of closers or if a race is loaded with Equal EP early speed horses than a strong LP ranked horse might have a strong say in the match up.

GS
Bill
Great post Bill.. You have all of your ducks lined up in your approach!
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Old 02-25-2016, 10:32 AM   #13
Bill V.
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Thanks Lone speed
The outline you posted looks good.
I find for myself it's best to keep things very simple.
In every segment of my time with the methodology,
I find I do best when I keep it simple.
I struggled when I tried to get too involved.
I can't do the match up Hats way
So I simplified it. Pizzollas fulcrum concept is easy,it works very well so I use it.
Matchers can look at a horse and visually say "slow"
I struggled with this , I can see the phase 1 numbers
more clearly and match them up.
I think form cycles and competition levels are a tool,
I love Howard and all the authers of Pace Makes The Race, I love Hat and Richie for teaching me the match up
..my way
I love Ted for being so kind and generous to make RDSS
have a complete phase 1 methodology screen
(TPR) tab. I love Pace and Cap for a place to go and
share the greatness of the Sartin Methodology.

Winning
Bill
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Old 02-26-2016, 03:05 PM   #14
Brian Chamberlain
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Bill, I appreciate your analyses.
Brian Chamberlain
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Old 02-26-2016, 05:04 PM   #15
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoeless View Post
Bill,

Wasn't something said in one of the FU'S by putting in 5.5 furlong
lines in a longer race that they will come up with better late numbers
HI Jeff.
I am not sure if that is correct or if I saw it . Maybe in much longer races .

The late numbers are adjusted to the distance being run
In the race you are working. If the race is a 6 furlong race and you use a 5.5 line , It will be adjusted to 6 furlongs.
Then using the scale from 100 you will get a 6 furlong measures of that 5.5 distance line .
When I look at different distance pacelines I look to see
how the race at the same distance look
With RDSS this is easy. All the races are adjusted to today's distance. If you look at any horse in my above example your looking at 6 furlong distance Ep Lp and TPR ratings even though the pace line says a different distance .
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