Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Hat Check - How Can We Help You? > Matchup Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-04-2018, 10:17 PM   #1
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
Marathon method on the Derby (2018)

Main Contenders 6,11,14,16.

Mile Times with position
#14 (94.8) 1st
#16 (96.3) 1st
#11 (96.3) 1st
#6 (96.9) 1st

#14 MENDELSSOHN
#16 MAGNUM MOON
#11 BOLT D’ORO
#6 GOOD MAGIC

If we can believe the conversions of Dubai times to NA then #14 is the horse. And if MONOMOY can do it from post 14 I’m sure MENDELSSOHN can. After that #16 and #11 are tied.

14 WIN

Pook
(Actually I’m not sure MENDELSSOHN can do it. But he might be worth a bet at good odds)

Last edited by The Pook; 05-05-2018 at 08:11 AM.
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2018, 12:06 PM   #2
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Agreed that Mendelssohn is a question mark and he did press on turf. But even unadjusted six furlong and mile times put him near the front with a top two mile time and a 3 furlong closing time that is top four. Bolt is right behind him on both accounts and the rest have not shown better closing kicks. The only better closers appear to be Justify from a projected 10L back and My Boy Jack, a legit closer who could place at a nice price.

Its 16 and 11 for me.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2018, 12:22 PM   #3
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Here's what I got:

Win: 16 and 14

Exacta 16-7-14 / 16-7-14 6-11-18-5

Name:  Derby.2018.jpg
Views: 1029
Size:  306.0 KB

Good luck all! Lots of good races on the undercard.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2018, 12:44 PM   #4
sureshotlink
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Agreed that Mendelssohn is a question mark and he did press on turf. But even unadjusted six furlong and mile times put him near the front with a top two mile time and a 3 furlong closing time that is top four. Bolt is right behind him on both accounts and the rest have not shown better closing kicks. The only better closers appear to be Justify from a projected 10L back and My Boy Jack, a legit closer who could place at a nice price.

Its 16 and 11 for me.

Agree,

Bolt should reverse the Justify tandem. He was taking out of this preferred running style in the SA derby. I believe he will run the race he did in the San Felipe. Very versatile horse!
sureshotlink is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2018, 08:38 PM   #5
The Pook
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 2,535
Nice one again Ted! Two big races in two days and two nice paying exactors.

The Marathon Method didn’t get this winner. When the track came up sloppy The Derby turned into too much of a gamble for me. I couldn’t get a feeling of confidence even on a fast track because of not being sure about Mendelsohhn. But good for you and anybody else that saw through the clutter.

Justify looks like an awesome horse. Looking forward to The Preakness!

Pook
The Pook is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Marathon method on the Oaks 2018 The Pook Matchup Discussion 13 05-04-2018 09:46 PM
Marathon method on the Derby The Pook Matchup Discussion 0 05-06-2016 07:54 PM
Marathon Method update for Derby and other long races Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 25 05-04-2015 08:27 PM
Way early Derby musings - marathon method Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 18 05-04-2014 11:54 AM
Kentucky Derby using Marathon Method - Best Mile times Bill Lyster Matchup Discussion 6 05-03-2013 09:33 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:43 PM.