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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
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07-01-2010, 07:35 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Matching for PROFIT - The "Mind's Eye" and WINNING pattern recognition
I received this PM yesterday from a dedicated "matcher" here and it made me very happy! It shows the potential power of Hat's teachings when it is applied in a spot play environment with PATIENCE and PATTERN RECOGNITION as it's "keys".
Also a big thank you to the writer who gave me permission to repost his note in its entirety including some gems for the pps he has noticed on a recurring basis A 35% win pct over a month of SPOT PLAYS with an ROI approaching 75% is pretty darn good stuff I would say! First the PM from yesterday: Thanks Rich! Hi Rich- I wanted to follow-up with you regarding the advice you gave me about a month ago. I took your advice and committed to reviewing a few races I’ve won each time before matching new races. I discovered that there were a few patterns that kept repeating. This leads me to believe that if I focus on these patterns only for spot plays then my win percentage and profit will improve. For me, they fell into these categories… 1) FPLR – In one of two categories…. With an early horse that either won or finished very close OR With an early horse that fought and faded. In either case the last line crushes the opposition. 2) An early horse coming off a WTW win or close finish AND….. A power line deeper in the PP’s that shows an OTE win/close finish (preferably versus a faster pace than the last race) OR A power line deeper in the PP’s that shows another early win/close finish versus a faster pace than the last race. 3) Sprint to route… A horse that closes ground and has a 6 furlong sprint time 3-5 lengths faster than the 6 furlong times of the routers. I find a recent example of each type to prime myself with before the new matching session. The result for the month was very positive. I made about half as many plays than I was previously making, so your emphasis on patience is going to be a key for me. It’s not always easy. I hope that the positive results will provide motivation and focus to just bet the ones that absolutely fit one of these patterns and pass the ones that don’t. Below is my Youbet wager log for June, which shows 5/14 wins and a nice ROI. Anyway, don’t mean to take up your time. I could write about this stuff all day! Thank you for taking the time to share your advice and guidance with me and for your continued work on the website. I look forward to the upcoming video you mentioned too. Here’s to a winning month of July! CRITERIA Start Date End Date Min Bet Amt Max Bet Amt Tracks Jockeys Trainers Bet Types Distances 6/1/2010 6/30/2010 All All All Win All ROI SUMMARY Bets Win % ROI % Wagered Payout ProfitLoss 14 35.7142 73.57 $28.00 $48.60 $20.60 WAGER DETAILS Date Track Race Bet Type Total Wager Amount Runner Payout 6/4/2010 Hollywood Park 1 Win 2 Runners:4 0 6/5/2010 Golden Gate Fields 4 Win 2 Runners:6 0 6/5/2010 Emerald Downs 3 Win 2 Runners:8 0 6/6/2010 Golden Gate Fields 4 Win 2 Runners:3 0 6/6/2010 Golden Gate Fields 6 Win 2 Runners:2 $9.60 6/6/2010 Hollywood Park 6 Win 2 Runners:6 0 6/10/2010 Hollywood Park 6 Win 2 Runners:1 $12.00 6/12/2010 Golden Gate Fields 8 Win 2 Runners:1 0 6/13/2010 Golden Gate Fields 5 Win 2 Runners:10 $5.80 6/20/2010 Hollywood Park 7 Win 2 Runners:1 $14.00 6/26/2010 Hollywood Park 5 Win 2 Runners:2 0 6/26/2010 Emerald Downs 3 Win 2 Runners:2 $7.20 6/27/2010 Hollywood Park 6 Win 2 Runners:7 0 6/27/2010 Hollywood Park 8 Win 2 Runners:7 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Now here is the note he speaks of that I sent him a bit more than a month ago privately. It is the EXACT process Hat had me follow when I wanted to match races for PROFIT: I am going to make a video VERY shortly and when it is finished I know it will help folks like yourself who are really sincere in learning. Go back and find 3-4 races that you have WON. Look at them each day before you are gonna go cap the races live ok? Reinforce the positive vibes/experiences of those winning races. THEN go to the live races and look/wait for the PATTERNS of the winning races you looked at before to show themselves to you TODAY! Wait and be PATIENT, bet only those "feel good" races if you are in this for profit. That is EXACTLY what Jim had me do. Now it is passed on to you! Good matching!
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
07-01-2010, 09:55 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thank You
Hi Rich
Thank you for this positive example I only had 1 card from your clients example races It is however one that he/she missed Hollywood race 5 2-26. I will focus on winning races !!!!! On paper this horse looks good the examples to me seem to be FPLR and a close finish this one missed but the layoff may have been the downfall But anyway I will add your lessons to my toolkit Thanks |
10-01-2010, 01:32 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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I just got this wonderful update from the same matcher above
Hi Rich- I just wanted to send an update regarding my progress with the Match Up. I have continued to follow the priming recommendation you made and the results continue to be positive. I have won 22 out of 55 bets (40%) with an ROI of almost 40%. Many of the mutuals are on the lower side, but as long as the win % stays where it is, it’ll be just fine. I am keeping track of my win percentage with each particular spot play so I will be able to adjust my minimum odds requirement for each one. I have to say that the piece of this that has been most difficult for me is PATIENCE; waiting for the race that matches the pattern that I’m looking for and passing all the others. One thing that has been helpful is keeping track of horses that are ALMOST spot plays; races that I’m tempted to bet but that just don’t quite match the pattern OR they match the pattern, but my intuition says something is not quite right. It is helpful to see that these horses win at a much lower rate and are not as profitable. The other thing I’ve started doing is using the Virtual Stable from Equibase. After the races, I go through the result charts and look for horses that might fit a spot play pattern next time out. For example, a horse thought fought 1C-2C or further versus a fast pace. Or perhaps a horse that won wire to wire today but shows in his PP’s that he can win versus an even faster pace. These are not necessarily automatic bets, but if they’re entered on a day that I’m not usually handicapping, I can at least get the PP’s for that race and put in a conditional bet if warranted. This gives me more betting opportunities which helps me maintain patience. This Fall, I will continue grinding away with these spot plays while practicing OTE races. I have a lot of room to improve with OTE races. I will go back over the Hat Check section to review some of the examples. Any other advice you have would be appreciated too. I also might post a live race to get the insight of others on the board. In time, it will be great to add more OTE spot plays to my betting plan. Anyway, thanks again Rich. All the best!
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
10-04-2010, 03:11 AM | #4 | |
Grade 3
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 50
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Quote:
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10-04-2010, 12:25 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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"Fast",
The video has not been made due to family issues and also me starting medical classes a couple of weeks ago. The above matcher follows this procedure that Jim told me to follow if I wanted to do races for PROFIT. He was very clear in separating matching for PROFIT and everything else ok? Here is his outline to me EXACTLY if I wanted to match horses to make MONEY: Go back and find 3-4 races that you have WON. Look at them each day before you are gonna go cap the races live ok? Reinforce the positive vibes/experiences of those winning races. THEN go to the live races and look/wait for the PATTERNS of the winning races you looked at before to show themselves to you TODAY! Wait and be PATIENT, bet only those "feel good" races if you are in this for profit. That is EXACTLY what Jim had me do. Now it is passed on to you! Good matching!
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
10-04-2010, 05:38 PM | #6 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 25
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Richie P. are you studying to be a Doctor?
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10-04-2010, 08:19 PM | #7 |
Grade 3
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 50
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Richie -
Okay. Thanks. Good luck with your classes. |
10-08-2010, 08:36 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: New Jersey, USA
Posts: 471
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With "The Doc" and The Hat" no longer with us it is very fitting that we are blessed with a new Doc.
All the best to you, Richie, in all your endeavors. Jon
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"Free your mind and the profits will follow." |
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