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Old 03-03-2013, 12:15 PM   #1
vderdak
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Random Thoughts

I thought I would just post some Random Thoughts.

For those not familiar with Thomas Sowell, a well known economist with several great economic books under his belt and some down to earth observations about people, government, and life in general he writes from time to time what he calls Random Thoughts at Townhall.com so I thought I would do the same about what I've observed on Pace and Cap.

These are just my thoughts only but it appears to me many handicappers are following rdss blindly, the numbers, without out looking at the big picture, trying to solve the puzzle with just one slice of the pie, and not using other valuable information in conjunction with rdss. That's a hard row to hoe.

I don't care if a horse has all the numbers, looks best from every angle, has great odds, but if the trainer is 0-7 at the specific sprint distance at the specific track and the jockey he puts on him is 1-10 with him there is no advantage there, to me you are fighting an up hill battle betting this horse.

I never hear any handicapping thoughts with regard to the trainer at all, not even in passing, I understand the site is about rdss but I never hear the trainer mentioned at all. I suspect this is because of the weakness with which track master supplies this information to us and the methodology which is the horse runs the race, not the trainer or the jockey but these days are not 20 years ago when you could get away without factoring in additional information. The trainer feeds the horse, exercises the horse, enters the horse, picks the jockey, and most handicappers on here act as if he doesn't exist.

The other area I don't hear a lot about is the heart factor of a horse, he many not have the best numbers on rdss but if he likes to win, I will take him any day over a horse who has all the numbers but likes to run only but seldom wins. It's one of the first factors I look at after the conditions of the race, does he win? You see it all the time, a horse with 6 wins out of 12, verse others with only 1 or 2, trust me, the 6 win horse has an advantage regardless of the what the numbers say.

I believe the starting point is to first read the race conditions like FTL has spelled out many times. Who does it favor, who does it not. James Quinn said a long time ago to just compare one horse to the other is sloppy handicapping, start first with those horses favored by the conditions, throw out the rest and then start your comparative handicapping. I think for many on here, MYSELF INCLUDED AS WELL , I'VE BEEN JUST AS GUILTY, we do alot of sloppy handicapping. I know Ted has posted in the past about running all the horses numbers to see if you overlooked a horse, that's an individual decision, but for me if I can't get it down to the contenders I don't understand the race enough to bet it, it's telling me to pass personally.

With regards to all this research and testing about getting the contenders down to 3, 4, or 5 horses it seems the odds board is already doing this for you. William Scott spelled this out years ago in his book which I still suspect is true today; the top three choices win 67% of all races, the top four 80% or there abouts so if you'd like you can make it a 3 or 4 horse race every time. He built a whole system on this next factor, one of the top three odds horses will finish 2nd or better 90% of the time, he said what was remarkable about this statistic is to have the high 90% number it can't deviate to much which of course makes sense. His deal was to bet win and place and win 2 out of the 3 playable races, something for the mathematically minded on here to investigate if they choose to with result charts, does the number still hold true?

For those looking for long shots I also do what Mark Cramer suggested a long time ago and has helped me hit many a long shot, I ask this question for every single race - which horse is the strange horse in the race, the one who doesn't look to belong. An only dirt runner in a turf race with all other turf horses,, a route horse in with all sprinters and etc. You would be surprised at the number of high odd winners you get by asking this simple question for every race, a hint, the trainer entered him in the race because he is either fishing and has no idea what to do with the horse anymore, this is true most of the time, out of options so to speak, or he is sneaky crazy.

In closing I believe in rdss, I love it's format and ease of use, it's the foundation the house is built on so to speak but my windows are open as well to let other information flow in for making betting decisions today, just some random thoughts I wanted to share.
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Old 03-03-2013, 12:31 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vderdak View Post
I thought I would just post some Random Thoughts.

For those not familiar with Thomas Sowell, a well known economist with several great economic books under his belt and some down to earth observations about people, government, and life in general he writes from time to time what he calls Random Thoughts at Townhall.com so I thought I would do the same about what I've observed on Pace and Cap.

These are just my thoughts only but it appears to me many handicappers are following rdss blindly, the numbers, without out looking at the big picture, trying to solve the puzzle with just one slice of the pie, and not using other valuable information in conjunction with rdss. That's a hard row to hoe.

I don't care if a horse has all the numbers, looks best from every angle, has great odds, but if the trainer is 0-7 at the specific sprint distance at the specific track and the jockey he puts on him is 1-10 with him there is no advantage there, to me you are fighting an up hill battle betting this horse.

I never hear any handicapping thoughts with regard to the trainer at all, not even in passing, I understand the site is about rdss but I never hear the trainer mentioned at all. I suspect this is because of the weakness with which track master supplies this information to us and the methodology which is the horse runs the race, not the trainer or the jockey but these days are not 20 years ago when you could get away without factoring in additional information. The trainer feeds the horse, exercises the horse, enters the horse, picks the jockey, and most handicappers on here act as if he doesn't exist.

The other area I don't hear a lot about is the heart factor of a horse, he many not have the best numbers on rdss but if he likes to win, I will take him any day over a horse who has all the numbers but likes to run only but seldom wins. It's one of the first factors I look at after the conditions of the race, does he win? You see it all the time, a horse with 6 wins out of 12, verse others with only 1 or 2, trust me, the 6 win horse has an advantage regardless of the what the numbers say.

I believe the starting point is to first read the race conditions like FTL has spelled out many times. Who does it favor, who does it not. James Quinn said a long time ago to just compare one horse to the other is sloppy handicapping, start first with those horses favored by the conditions, throw out the rest and then start your comparative handicapping. I think for many on here, MYSELF INCLUDED AS WELL , I'VE BEEN JUST AS GUILTY, we do alot of sloppy handicapping. I know Ted has posted in the past about running all the horses numbers to see if you overlooked a horse, that's an individual decision, but for me if I can't get it down to the contenders I don't understand the race enough to bet it, it's telling me to pass personally.

With regards to all this research and testing about getting the contenders down to 3, 4, or 5 horses it seems the odds board is already doing this for you. William Scott spelled this out years ago in his book which I still suspect is true today; the top three choices win 67% of all races, the top four 80% or there abouts so if you'd like you can make it a 3 or 4 horse race every time. He built a whole system on this next factor, one of the top three odds horses will finish 2nd or better 90% of the time, he said what was remarkable about this statistic is to have the high 90% number it can't deviate to much which of course makes sense. His deal was to bet win and place and win 2 out of the 3 playable races, something for the mathematically minded on here to investigate if they choose to with result charts, does the number still hold true?

For those looking for long shots I also do what Mark Cramer suggested a long time ago and has helped me hit many a long shot, I ask this question for every single race - which horse is the strange horse in the race, the one who doesn't look to belong. An only dirt runner in a turf race with all other turf horses,, a route horse in with all sprinters and etc. You would be surprised at the number of high odd winners you get by asking this simple question for every race, a hint, the trainer entered him in the race because he is either fishing and has no idea what to do with the horse anymore, this is true most of the time, out of options so to speak, or he is sneaky crazy.

In closing I believe in rdss, I love it's format and ease of use, it's the foundation the house is built on so to speak but my windows are open as well to let other information flow in for making betting decisions today, just some random thoughts I wanted to share.

You have MIS understood. Please look at the Banner of Pace and Cap
Pace and Cap is about The Sartin Methodology and The Match Up
RDSS is ONE of many tools in the Sartin Methodology tool kit.
Trainers and trainer intent are also a tool, but just as not everybody needs trainer stats to win with the Methodology,
there are those who also don't need one of the tools which happens to be RDSS. I use RDSS because it provides me with the tools to use Phase 1
and thoromation The Day Ted changes the heading of Pace and Cap
to RDSS is the only way ! is the day I will believe Pace and Cap is ONLY
about RDSS

thanks
Bill

Last edited by Bill V.; 03-03-2013 at 12:35 PM.
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Old 03-03-2013, 12:50 PM   #3
vderdak
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Bill

Please overlook my mislabeling, I was speaking in general terms that the trainer factor is very seldom mentioned on this site in conjunction with any programs, that is all just a random thought regarding all the discussion of numbers.

I've never heard anyone ever say I passed on this horse because of the poor fit with the trainer tendencies even though the horses number looked great or this horses numbers are not that great, just ok, but the trainer has the horse placed like glove for what he wins best at, that's all.
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Old 03-03-2013, 03:13 PM   #4
shoeless
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Vderdak,

I think you made some valid points and have to agree with Pizzolla
that the computer in your head is more valuable then the one you
turn on.

I guess you came on here late but I tried to get coversations
going about trainers as well as Pino ( I wish he was still on board here)
and Jonathan Steele with Taulbot. There really was not a lot of interest
on it .


Bill,

Basically I do believe this is an RDSS site.

To me when you and Richie many moons ago would delve into the
various programs I thought was more enjoyable then it is now. I know
Im in the minority on this but that's my opinion.

Jeff
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Old 03-03-2013, 03:51 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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The banner of PaceandCap.com will never change. It is balanced precisely the way is should be. Dr Sartin and all the teachers from 25+ years past, and all their spoken and written words beckon us from the left corner, RDSS as a tool embodying the past and pointing to the future from the right corner, and the full-centre statement of focus on the Sartin Methodology and The Matchup, respecting Jim Bradshaw's contribution to this site.

All phases of the Sartin Methodology are offered and celebrated here. At each point along the way during his career, Dr Sartin offered the latest of the cumulative thinking of all the serious participants to that point, while BOTH drawing the direct line between the earliest ideas and the latest ones AND identifying the strengths and shortcomings of what went before in light of the current realities of horse racing truth. All in support of BOTH existing practitioners AND outreach to new comers.

And so it is also, in my humble proposition, that today we make available everything that went before in the Methodology, AND offer the best tools and resources we know of for new-comers to step into these ideas. This includes RDSS as software, the Match Up teachings by Jim Bradshaw and Richie P - which require NO SOFTWARE to implement them - all the concept from all the previous phases which lead us to today, and all the new ideas from fertile and serious minds arising from what went before. All of it is what we do here. No part is unimportant.

Vderdak, I hear you regarding Trainers! I'm sure Dr Sartin and others heard it loud and clear as well during their day! I think the 'disdain' for Trainer info you are seeing comes from the theory than there is a high degree of co-relation between good trainers and good horses, as well as the notion that surplus information gives rise to confusion. The issue is: what information is surplus!

A lot of the time, a 0-7 trainer and a 1-10 jockey get just the horse to match their records. Thus, the horse data serves as a fine stand-in for the trainer/jockey data. Not always, of course - but probably much more often than not. At least, that's my take on why the historical lack of inclusion of Trainer info, and it's certainly why I have not dwelt on it in RDSS thus far.

It is not a trivial issue - what data to focus on, and I dare say that those who are still struggling to make the Methodology work for them, whether using RDSS or other tools, are possibly focusing on too many different data points, trying to integrate too much information. I'm certain there are those successful individuals who integrate many diverse bits of info in their work, as well as those others who focus on just a few things, be it Phase I TPR numbers, or BLBL, or VDC or the positional, visual Match Up - whatever.

I consider my role here as not the same as Dr Sartin's role previously. I am not a great thinker or a great teacher, and certainly not the promoter or 'personality' he was. I am a good programmer, and becoming a pretty good handicapper/bettor. But it is not my personal contribution to Pace and Cap, or to the Sartin Methodology, to 'save people from themselves' or prevent them from overdosing on 'too much information' just because I personally think it's not good for them. I don't have the perspective to make those judgements, nor the mission.

That said - clearly, I am not averse to adding new bits of information or new tools into the RDSS software to help leverage the brain of the handicapper, if the additions are in line with the broad-strokes of the Methodology's philosophy such as I understand it or such as smarter-people-than-me are able to make the well-stated case.

And TrackMaster does have accessible very detailed Trainer/Jockey stats in their other offerings, all of which IS available to RDSS if I ask for it. The only question then is - should I ask for it? Or is that a service to a few and a disservice to many? Or do I have any business even trying to make that determination - just put the stuff in and use it/ignore it just like people use or ignore various existing parts of RDSS today?

Anyway, lots of what goes on at PaceandCap does so without reference to RDSS at all. Just as lots of resources are available here to support those who do want to make use of that tool. I would hope that that balance is determined by the active users here, and by the interest of new-comers (of which there are many, recently).

Just some Random Thoughts of my own

Ted
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Old 03-03-2013, 04:49 PM   #6
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Here is my random thoughts on this subject of trainers:

I am going to borrow a post by Richie P. where he quoted Jim"the Hat" Bradshaw....

But before I do...I remember a book that I read many years ago titled "Unlimited Powers" by Anthony Robbins...I also listened to his cd seminar....

I always keep this phrase foremost in my mind in whatever endeavors I seek to persue......

Robbins,"Model successful patterns of successful people.....Follow/model the the steps taken by successful people..."


post by Richie P.


Straight talk from " The Hat" - "Secret" to upping WIN % by 10 points
First off I have run this by Jim and have his ok to post this thread.

Ok a little backround is needed first.

I have been learning the matchup from Jim for appx 5 months. Learning it from the CREATOR only. I will say there are 2 key things that MUST be done to have ANY chance to actually become a successful " Matcher".

1) Completely IGNORE trainer/jockey/class/layoffs/trackbias. PERIOD.

2) MUST use the horse's ENTIRE past performances shown REGARDLESS of how long ago some of the pacelines might be. This enables us to:
a) match lines and overcome any track variant and shipper/ track to track issues.
b) identify strongly WINNING running styles and the POSITION at the FIRST call a horse can WIN from.

I posted the above because even doing this I was stuck in a win % range around 25-28% betting 1 horse for over 2 months. Jim kept telling me I should be MUCH higher. He was being totally sincere man. He would keep doing races with me on the phone. He would tell me "something is holding you back Rich. We will find it".

10 days ago to be EXACT he found it and laid it out for me STERNLY. Very much a talking to for sure. NO nice-nice talk whatsoever.

This is EXACTLY what he told me. EXACTLY word for word.

1) " Rich I need you to HIDE the morning line odds when you work a race, I do NOT want you to see them. You have been a value better for a decade and that **** is ingrained in you whether or not you realize it. I have to break you of that and hiding the morning line is how to do it. When I go to the track and use the Form I NEVER see the ml. JUST the HORSE Rich. NOTHING else. Trust me on this ok?"

- since then I HIDE the ml odds on my pp's and for the last 10 days have NO clue on the ml of the horse's. Just matching HORSES with NO expectation of potential payoff.

2) " Rich I want you to ONLY bet races where you have the field narrowed to ONE horse you KNOW is going to win. What I mean is that even if the horse doesn't win you KNOW that was the horse and you would bet him again. This also keeps you from going back and second guessing yourself after a losing race. This is VITAL to matching because INTUITION is a HUGE part of matching MY way and there is no room for second guessing here".

Jim continues - "So when you come to a race and you have the race down to 2 horses and can not DEFINITIVELY say that one will beat the other you MUST - PASS THE RACE. I only want you betting races where you have the field narrowed to ONE horse Rich. Leave the others alone and FOCUS on these races. SPOT PLAY them only."

I am betting at 3/2 odds and higher. No exotics of ANY kind for ME. Guys like Charlie and Pino are doing good with the exotics which is terrific.

Jim also said that for TWO horse bettors narrowing a field to 2 is GREAT as the win bets are self evident. When the TWO horse bettor reduces to three then the " guessing" on whom to play rears its head again and he suggests PASSING is something to consider strongly.

In 10 days the change in my play and % is fantastic man. I am a totally different and better Matcher. Read the thread topic again. I am being dead serious in what I wrote ok? DEAD SERIOUS.

I honestly do not know how Jim sees things and knows what will help but he does. He also gives of his time in a big way.

I post this hoping it will help someone the way it helped me. Just trying to pass along some of Jim's teachings to me ok?

all the best and remember
" It's just a dang horse race" - Jim " The Hat" Bradshaw

stay cool
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Old 03-03-2013, 05:29 PM   #7
vderdak
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Again, just an observation that no one ever mentions the trainer factor at all on here, nothing more or less, in conjunction with the programs although I don't believe I ever requested for additional trainer information to be added either in my post.

I don't expect your program Ted to provide all the handicapping information one needs, I am just surpised I haven't ever seen any mention of trainers at all since I've been on here, to me it's much more valuable than some new pace numbers or csr.

I'm actually quite pleased to see alot of players play a horse with the best numbers, no matter which program they use in opposite correlation to the trainers performance in those races, it's all about advantages and disadvantages and making money after all.
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Old 03-03-2013, 06:13 PM   #8
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Trainer/Jockey information is very important!!! If one chooses to ignore this information, that is their prerogative. My vote would be to include as much information as possible in RDSS and let the user decide what they want to use. It is a very difficult game today and to stay above water it is vital to have as much information as the guy betting hundreds of dollars against you. What you choose to do or not do with the information will determine whether you succeed.

The day of spoon feeding horse players only a little at a time and ignoring factors available in the 21st century is short sighted. No longer do grannies bet their $2 bets at the track picking numbers. They play the lottery or slots.

I agree wholeheartedly with including all the information at TrackMaster's disposal within the program and letting the user decide what they want to use. It may never come to pass and be the minority opinion, and I am cool with that, after all we are playing a pari-mutuel game. I easily can get the information elsewhere, and do.

Jim
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Old 03-03-2013, 06:30 PM   #9
lone speed
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Greatest race

I was going to write about a random race but in the end, I decided to write about the “greatest race loss ever”…..the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park…at a mile and a half on dirt.

Some tidbits about the main contenders in this greatest race in the history of the Jockey Club Gold Cup….

Seattle Slew- 4 year old Handicap division power house who was also the 3 year-old Triple Crown Champion the previous year…trained by W. Turner and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey, Angel Cordero….Seattle Slew won the Belmont Stakes at the same distance as the Jockey Club Gold Cup on dirt the previous year.

Affirmed…the 3year-old Triple Crown Champion trained by Hall of Fame trainer Laz Barrera and owned by Harbor View Farm who also entered Life’s Hope whose main purpose was to be a rabbit for Affirmed in this race . Affirmed’s jockey was the young teenager Steve Cauthen who rode him thru his Triple Crown victories…Affirmed also won the current year Belmont Stakes at the same distance as the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Exceller,,,Turf distance specialist from Europe and owned by Nelson Bunker Hunt and trained by the Bald Eagle, Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey, Bill Shoemaker. Exceller came within a half-length to The Minstrel in the King George VI in England and had won many turf races up to a mile and7/8 in Europe.

During the running of the early pace of the Jockey Gold Cup…Life’s Hope forced Seattle Slew to run suicidal splits of 45.1 and 1:09.2 and the saddle had slipped on Affirmed with Steve Cauthen trying to maintain balance and control of Affirmed.. Exceller was 22 lengths behind this torrid and blistering early pace for the mile and a half distance.

At the finish line, Exceller had put up a nose better than Seattle Slew, who had ran an incredible race in defeat….Great, great race….Affirmed finish in 5th…

Looking back at this race, we can say that Seattle Slew was forced to use up valuable early energy with those blistering early splits and that Affirmed was too close to that pace but also was disadvantaged when the saddle slipped. Exceller was 22 lengths behind in the parking lot of Belmont Park when he came on like a freight train to catch the Slew and defeating two Triple Crown Champions in the same race. With the luxury of looking back at this race in history, we can conclude that Exceller won the race on matchup…and Seattle Slew ran one of the greatest race in defeat….

There are so much data available today, especially in today’s media driven world….If one can put all these data to efficient and profitable use on a daily basis..then his profit is justifiably deserved….One is free to choose the amount of data that one wants to extrapolate to handicap the races…Thorograph has a huge databank on each entries about the trainers’ proficiency on 1st time starters, turf races, maiden races, 3rd race after a layoff, etc…possibilities of the horse bouncing…or moving up…etc….

I do understand JimG's strong stance about having data available and having the options to put them in context of a race....There was a lengthy discussion on the Thorograph board on"milkshake" trainers and the 40% win trainers like Rudy....the low win percentage of Hall of Fame trainers like Jack Van Berg and D.Wayne Lukas....or the lower win percentages of Todd Pletcher's outfit outside of Gulfstream Park....
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Old 03-03-2013, 06:55 PM   #10
vderdak
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Lone Speed

As much as I respect Jim Bradshaw and Richie and those which can follow the Hat's method of handicapping, you have my upmost admiration but seriously, how many can handicap that way, I would imagine only a handful consistently making money with his method. If it was so easy so many more would be winning and doing it this way, I'm speaking pure matchup.

For most it's a spot play method at best, be patient, hit when you have everything going your way. I've read every and I mean every single post in the Match Up. Three main methods were mentioned near the end to concentrate on, lone speed only, speed of the speed and there was one other method mentioned which I can't recall off hand now which most can use, in fact I use those first two all of the time but the Hat was a true wizard, a handicaping genuis, one of kind but for many of us with just average intelligence, that's me, it's a tough way to try to handicap, but I am smart enough to know I need all the help I can get with trainers telling me what they can and can't do successfully with their horses

Why not use trainer information to fortify your decision making process. I didn' say it stood alone. Again for me, my foundation is RDSS. Everyone handicaps differently but sorry I can't play a horse with the best numbers combined with a no win trainer, if his last race came close and the horse produced good numbers and he lost, to me that was his race to win and he blew it again, his chance has come and gone. For me and again I am speaking for me only, I win a whole lot more by throwing him out then playing him because he fits the numbers and model.

Part of it is intiuition too of course, doesn't the Hat and Ritchie speak of this all the time, the Mind's Eye, believe it not, it applies to trainers as well as horses.

I respect everyones opinions on here, the beauty of handicapping is there is no right or wrong, only what makes money for you personally.

I was again just remarking on an observation that no one ever mentions the trainer on here or the actual horse's heart in winning. That's it!
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