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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 09-16-2013, 08:53 AM   #31
atkinsrr
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FTL...thx for the quick response...I never fully understood what a "+" race was until you explained it that way.....Thanks a lot...always looking to improve on P/L selection
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Old 09-16-2013, 09:00 AM   #32
atkinsrr
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also thx Bill for the explanation on the 7.5 B/L...I always thought that the 7.5 B/L was for all programs....you and FTL have kinda cleared up my view of P/L selecting....always looking for ways to improve....Thx again
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Old 09-16-2013, 11:02 AM   #33
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
The race in question was the 6th race at Finger Lakes on 9/14, the JackBettaBeRite Hcp. I realize not many on this board play there so didn't think anyone would have the race in RDSS.

I need to clear one thing up. I am not using RDSS but a homegrown program started about 10 -12 years ago. Why? Do I think it is better? "Absolutely not!" I sometimes wonder if I like playing or the time spent on trying to put it together on my own. I do like the fact that I understand where my numbers come from and what they mean. I would have to learn all that by going with RDSS. And there are just so many screens to look at that I am sure I'd be confused for a long time. That is a reason I would never use AllWays software, too much information for me. But it is because of not using RDSS that I can't post screen shots and make my posts clearer. I do try to ask questions that would be askable (if that is a word) by users of RDSS.

Thanks for your time Bill and, ok, the name is Ray.
Hi Ray

I have the Finger lakes card. Here is the winner, I myself can not see a
valid excuse for line 1. I do see a 15/1 Ml and a + race within 90 days and
almost 2 + races since line 4 is 92 days old. I see 6 non claiming + races including a stakes win at FL last year.

Now the distance ? I do see good success at 8.5 furlongs in its past
but other than the mud win not so much at 8.33

This is a handicap race, The 2 was not a high weight.

Would I go to line 2 without a valid excuse ? I probably would use line 2
but because of the past success

Bill

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Old 09-16-2013, 11:11 AM   #34
Bill V.
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Results

Here is the chart

Not that this has anything to do with the methodology but
The Jockey switch back to J. Flores, could be a positive
since this jockey won on Moms Law in the past


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Old 09-16-2013, 05:12 PM   #35
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Hi Bill. Just thought I add my two cents if I may. Those of us that use the best of the last 3 comparable would have no problem using line 2. As Doc stated in his publishers column in FU #81 the last line is less predictive than lines 2 &3 and in many races no more predictive than line 4. With this horse I noticed that his last 4 races she exhibits a good race, bad race pattern. The switch back to a jockey who had won with her before was another positive. As an aside this last Sundays race 1 at Parx was similar. I went back to l4 although it was 125 days old. The horse won and paid $28.20 and keyed an $112.60 ex. I guess what I'm trying to point out is although you and FTL prefer not to go in most cases there is more than 1 way to use the methodology with none being right or wrong. Keep up the good work.

Tim
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Old 09-16-2013, 07:48 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hello FTL

Yes thanks for posting this race and the reminder of the 10/1 winner today
at Parx .

FTL The conditions of today's race is a SA 16 N1X/4-L
Besides the 2 main conditions of having started in a claiming race of $16000
or less Or other than there also is a "OR" that adds non winners of 4 lifetime

Horse 1 and 3 come out of the same race, same conditions on 8/24
The 7 horse's SA16 race in line 2 is also this same condition

Today condition

Attachment 35675

Result chart for race on 8/22

Attachment 35676
Hi Bill,

I stand corrected and thanks for making the correction!
The "entire" condition includes the "OR NW4L", which brings up an interesting point and what handicapping is about.

The "OR NW4L" is an add on condition in an effort to fill the race so the race can "go". If a race does not fill, naturally it can't go, so the racing secretary does what he has to do to insure that doesn't happen.

So lets' investigate this further and I'll start with the "OR NW4L" part of the condition.

How many horses qualify for this race on the "OR NW4L" part of the condition?
ANSWER: ALL, except one. In fact, one of these horses has just 2 wins.

How many horses in this race "qualify" on the basic condition, "NW1X"?
ANSWER: JUST ONE

Who is the one horse that gets into the race on the basic condition?
ANSWER: The WINNER! it is the only horse in the race with more than 3 wins.
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Old 09-16-2013, 07:54 PM   #37
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Tim

Hi Tim

Can you check the race your referring to
I don't see any $28.00 dollar winners in my DB for race 1 on a Sunday for awhile

I wonder if you mean this winner from Saturday 9/14 race 1

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Thanks

Bill

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Old 09-16-2013, 08:24 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
My first question here is, do you mean "profile" or do you mean "model"? I believe it would be a model. Will have to look up that up in Brohamer's Book.

You have gone a long way to clearing up my question. It was just one of those days at the races where horses defying the qualifying rules were winning. I guess the reason it was so disappointing was it was a Hcping Challenge day and 200+ day layoffs won along with horses that I thought should get no line etc. were knocking off my picks. It is easier when I am home but driving 2 hours to get to the track and finding only 1 playable race (losing that one) was frustrating.

The question itself was not stemmed out of pent up aggravation.


You and Bill have been very helpful in any question I have asked.

Now one more question on the last race you just posted. I #2 horse you gave no line because of layoff time. That horse was laid off before the exact amount of days and came back with a powerful win. Would you ever consider that and give the horse the winning line? The difference in the 2 races were, one was a win in NW2 and one a NW3.

Thanks again.
Ray
Take heart. I don't have the long drive you have. There is a racebook close to me in any direction, here in Las Vegas. There is never a day when I play a lot of races. And, naturally, I don't win all the races I play, so I understand what you are saying.

As to your question, no, I never look back to see if there has been a similar situation for a horse. I would NOT have given the horse a line THEN and, as you can see, I did NOT give the horse a line now. And I especially would not consider going back to that old line and giving it to the horse today. That was then...this is now. I have no way to determine that I can safely assume the horse is ready to run back to that old line. Statisically, the horse has a 5% chance of winning. I prefer to stay with the 95%'ers.

Here's the thing. The worst that can happen is, I lose a race to a horse that has been off more than 90 days, IF I happen to be in that particular race.

On the other hand, I DON'T lose a lot of races betting ON horses that have been off for more than 90 days.

And better than that, I don't miss winners that I should have by playing a horse off more than 90 days.

I also don't have horses off more than 90 days among my contenders, muddying the water.

For those who may have missed the race being discussed, go back to page 3.
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Old 09-16-2013, 08:43 PM   #39
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guidelines

FTL, was looking at MNR tonight in the 4th race. The 1/5 favorite was off 338 days. He failed to hit the board.
Thought you would appreciate the prices across the board on the win place & show horse.
My read outs are included.
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I bet the 4 & 5 to win
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Old 09-16-2013, 09:22 PM   #40
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Days

Kind of reminds me of "if I use line 4"

Hi Tim

Ok I see what is going on here. As Doc says the conditions of the race and your records will often help with decisions
The conditions of the race from Parx
were you went back to line 4 are...
Claiming $7,500 but for non winners of a race in 6 months
However horses who have won for less than $5000 are eligible.
Anyway these races are for not the cream of the crop
$7500 is just 1 step up from the few $5000 claimers they run at Parx

Lets look at the lines. Line 1 and 3 are from 7 furlongs. Today's distance is 8.5
I have no problem skipping over them as they are non comparable-
although line 1 is a + race.
Line 2 is interesting, Line 2 is a CL$7500 but for non winners of 2 races
in 6 months, These races are much harder than the CL7500 N1-6M
because horses have won recently, were as in the non 1 in 6 months a horse
has not unless it won for under $5000.

The Laurels was 2.40/1 in the tougher non winner of 2 condition.
It was second choice in the betting in that race.
So besides the distance of 7 furlongs the race in line two could be excused for class too high. Lastly as far as the days of 124 Well these are non winners
in 6 months, I would rather see a horse like this if I was to go back 124 days
with valid excuse, then a race that is not time eligibility restricted

Bill

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