Parx 2-23

[Lt1]

That 12th race ex was 94.00.
Tim

[barryt]

R11 was crazy as someone(people) bet the #7 to 1/5@ 4mtp and 1/9 at the off.
As a result #6, Lt1s 2nd choice and winner went from a “normal 12-1 to 32-1.
Surprizingly, to me, the 7 was also overbet in the Exa pool. A normal $2 Exa 12-1 over 5-1 should pay in the order of 125-175. 6-3 , Lt1s 2nd and 4th choices paid $279.. the Dds 9-6 and 6-6,esp 6-6, were inflated too. Lt1s late pic 3 #2,#2,#1 (966) Paid an amazing $2600.
All that and “no handicapping just RDDS on its own”
Congrats to Lt1

[darmar]

Wow I guess you are not one to have your feathers ruffled
This is one great comeback effort!!!
Congrats Obi-Wan just like fine wine you just get better with age
Darryl

[Lt1]

Thanks Barry. I did check the pls picked by RDSS and %med but other then that I relied on the program. In the 11 that 7 was a classic example of what has been happening for yrs. In the old days returning champs and other big named horses would run in classified alw races and be way over bet. People failed to understand these horses were not out to win but merely shaking off the rust And most of the time the horses lost to in form true classified alw horses. Even the bettors in NY fell for this.
Tim

[Lt1]

Thanks Darryl.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Thanks Barry. I did check the pls picked by RDSS and %med but other then that I relied on the program. In the 11 that 7 was a classic example of what has been happening for yrs. In the old days returning champs and other big named horses would run in classified alw races and be way over bet. People failed to understand these horses were not out to win but merely shaking off the rust And most of the time the horses lost to in form true classified alw horses. Even the bettors in NY fell for this.
Tim

Good point, Tim. The 4yo #7 dropped to a class level not seen since her 2yo campaign and was off a 151 day layoff. G1 down to Alw. Not a good betting proposition. She may well return to her previous form, but, as you point out, this has to be considered a tune up. It's a pass or bet against. Thanks for this post.

[Lt1]

Anytime Ranch.
Tim

[ranchwest]

1st race at FG today had a dropper bet to odds on. Horse dropped from 25 claimer to 12.5 claimer. I get suspicious of a 50% drop, especially without a layoff. Winner paid $9.

[Lt1]

You will do well going against susp class droppers over the long haul. They usually win when the whole field is suspect. It's a % game after all.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Lt1

You will do well going against susp class droppers over the long haul. They usually win when the whole field is suspect. It's a % game after all.
Tim

Correct. Today's trainers are more prone to drop than they once were, but for the most part it still holds up well to be wary of suspicious drops. The biggest problem is at racinos, where the purses are often very high for the claim level.