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Old 02-21-2017, 12:48 PM   #1
The Pook
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Feb21 PRX1 Could this be TreeTops day?

Tree is 0/10 in sprints. Always collapses. Almost did it last out where the 3 beat him who returns. Tree owns the FPLR and is a lone early. He is shortening to 5.5. There was other speed in his last with none here.

Worth a bet at 3/2 or higher.

Pook
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:02 PM   #2
Tim Y
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YOu have to avoid these types like the PLAGUE....They suck up money on "just about being there" even with huge pace advantages....They are usually bet so low as to not be viable either..They tantalize with many 2nd and 3rd but just never deliver..
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:04 PM   #3
Tim Y
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Even with the noted IMPROVEMENT in that short priced favorite the last several, these types hardly ever deliver.

a famous also ran.

http://leftatthegate.blogspot.ca/200...cques-who.html

quote form rider "After we took the lead in the stretch," said Cordero, "Jacques Who seemed unhappy to stay up front."
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:24 PM   #4
mowens33
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Pook, I agree with Tim on this one, I would need a price (3 to 1 or better) to bet this horse especially in a 10K MC

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Old 02-21-2017, 01:36 PM   #5
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Pook, horse went off 3/5 (lost by a head), I hope you saved your money.

Great lone speed example!

Thanks for the post!!

Mike
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:36 PM   #6
The Pook
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No it wasn't his day. But almost. I thought circumstances had maybe changed sufficiently that he would finally pull it off. Of course at 3/5 I wasn't on him anyway. But you guys are right. A money burner.

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Old 02-21-2017, 01:55 PM   #7
Tim Y
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ANYTIME you see a horse not winning in ten efforts, it is usually time to look elsewhere.

I have asked trainers and it has something to do with herd mentality and is deeply entrenched in horses.
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:08 PM   #8
The Pook
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Good point Tim. I was asking as your response came through, for you guys (Tim, Mike) and anyone else to really look at this horse. What are the red flags?
0/10?
M10000?
Is it a gut feeling?
Anything else?
Will this horse never win a race?

I included the PP's of the horse that beat him. He has only ever lead in a route. Never a sprint. Thats why I thought Tree would get away sufficiently. But the 6 harried Tree the whole way and intimidated him to fold.

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Old 02-21-2017, 02:17 PM   #9
The Pook
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Since I started tracking the types of races that I bet class wise nearly three months ago (thanks Lt1 and Mitch for input on that) the one serious area of non-profit for me are Maidens. -59% ROI. These races may have one FT or are missing one piece of info. They only represent 11% of all races bet so I could easily avoid them but 3 months is too short a time to draw a conclusion. So I keep hammering them. Maybe after a year and I'm in the same boat I might drop them.

Todays PRX1 won't go in the database because I didn't actually bet because of odds. However I would like members opinions on TreeTop.

Pook

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Old 02-21-2017, 03:11 PM   #10
Lt1
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Hi Pook. I capped the race and had the #2 2nd on bl/bl and #1 on RX3. The winner ranked 4th on bl/bl on 5th on RX3. I didn't wager on this race since the top 2 ranked horses were 8/5 and 2-1 and since I require a great deal more to wager on a mdn race. I also passed race 4 even though the winner #6 was 2nd on bl/bl and 3rd on RX3 while the place horse was 3 bl/bl and 2 RX3 and the ex pd $105.20. Why the pass. Simple the winner was coming off a 61 day layoff with a weak w/o tab and was shipping back to Parx where it was 0-1. At 2-1 not for me. R7 is also a mdn race. Based on my capping BL/BL and RX3 both have it 69345. This looks to me to be a weak field and there are 2 FTS. The 7 interest me a little at 10-1. It shows 4 5f works in 38 days and in a less then stellar field might be worth a $2 flyer at 10-1 or higher. Most likely this will be a pass race again. Good luck the rest of the day.
Tim G
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