|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Search | Today's Posts | Mark Forums Read
Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
02-18-2017, 08:05 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
Hi Jeebs,
Maybe Bill V can chime in here with his thoughts on this: Off YOUR lines shown the winning #4 in race 5 was ranked #3 Total Energy before hides. Off YOUR lines shown the winning #4 in race 6 was ranked #2 in Total Energy before hides. Excellent paceline work and you certainly had them as FAST HORSES .
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
02-18-2017, 08:29 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
Poor execution on hides. Probably overemphasized the Late/Early graph and incremental match graphs. And yes Id be interested in Bill's thoughts. Thanks Richie.
Last edited by Jeebs; 02-18-2017 at 08:31 AM. |
02-18-2017, 02:27 PM | #13 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Jeebs
I don't have the card downloaded, but just from what I see so far
In Race 5 I would not hide the 4 from the 5 screen - Incremental Match UP I like how you checked the screen , Good work, but with Val 4 I like to have 5 horses, Tim suggest 6 which is good too I prefer 5 because I use the balance readout so If I have a horse with a 7 or 8 or higher balance I know its not a good win bet. I would not have bet the 4 with that pattern to win based on what I see from your readouts. It is 3rd total energy but the 3rd,4th and 5th ranked total horses are just about tied. The top 2 have a big advantage The 4 is the #1 horse in the F1 panel and like Tim mentioned That probably was enough to carry it home. One thing I did notice about your comments Both winners were from the last line and you did not have any reason to have to look past it. I love when I can see what pace line people have selected Doc wrote to do this and see how most times the winner comes from line 1,2 or 3. Actually the average is 2.75 Let me see if I can download the card. |
02-18-2017, 05:31 PM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Race 6
Jeebs I worked up race 6
I agree with your toss of the 4 in race 5 but not in race 6 For Me the 4 was tier 3 Doc wrote, do not look at cor-rallies of your top 3 just waggercap I get the winner #4 ranked third Another thing to consider is all my contenders are late on the early late and they show OTE energy on the energy generator, So like the 4 in race 5 the 4 here just kept going and paid $7,60 Here is my work up OP Race 6 CL 40000 N2=L Everybody has only 1 win Lines Horse 1 No Routing form Now moves up after a loss No Line Horse 2 MC50 Maiden claimer winner Line 1 77 speed rating Pace 112.3 Horse 3 2nd Race after a long layoff, showed early speed than faded Line 2 Contender Pace 111.8 Horse 4 Line 1 Same distance,class Plus paceline SR 77 pace 112.4 Horse 5 MC25 winner , FTL guidelines say this will probably be a 12500 claimer Shows no ability against horses 2,3 and 4's pace ability Pace 115.2 SR in win only 70 No Line Horse 6 Line 1 Same distance,class Plus paceline SR 75 pace 112.4 tandem with horse 4 Horse 7 Line 1 slow start against a fast pace SLY line but line 2 is 300+ days old questions abound with this on ? SR 77 Pace 111.3 Horse 8 Not In this lifetime Horse 9 Line 1 is it's first try at OP, Line 2 is a dud sprint, line 3 SR 77 slow pace 112.8 Code:
PaceLines OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+ $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM PACELINE DATA # PN NAME LdNT 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR TRKDISTS 1 2 TONBO1 47.2 112.3 144.5 1.20 1.50 0.00 0.00 77 OP 8.0D 2 3 STREE2 48.2 111.8 143.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.30 80 CD 8.5D 3 4 RANK 1 1 47.2 112.4 143.5 0.00 0.00 1.50 4.00 77 OP 8.5D 4 6 STAND1 1 47.2 112.4 143.5 11.00 5.70 7.00 6.30 75 OP 8.5D 5 7 JUSTI1 46.0 111.3 144.1 13.20 7.50 3.60 1.50 77 OP 8.5D 6 9 PERFE3 48.1 112.8 144.2 0.20 1.00 1.50 2.00 76 CD 8.5D The 2 , The Maiden claimer #2 shows nothing so out goes the 2/1 ML favorite Code:
OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+ $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4) HIDE# PNcNAME LdT SR BAL LS TIE ODDS TRKDISTS M/L DAYS AGE 2 3 STREE2 80 7 20.3 9-5 CD 8.5D 3/1 21 4 4 6 STAND1 1 75 7 15.5 7-2 OP 8.5D 5/1 14 4 3 4 RANK 1 1 77 5 15.0 * 7-2 OP 8.5D 3/1 14 5 5 7 JUSTI1 77 10 15.0 * 7-2 OP 8.5D 12/1 31 6 6 9 PERFE3 76 5 14.5 7-2 CD 8.5D 12/1 14 4 1 2 TONBO1 77 8 14.0 7-2 OP 8.0D 5/2 12 4 SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS +----------------++-----+ ¦ PRIM ¦ SUPP ¦ ¦ B¦L¦T¦PRIM¦SUPP¦¦FRACT¦ ¦E¦L¦C¦T¦H¦F¦F¦S¦F¦E¦T¦T¦ +-----------------¦ A¦S¦O+----+----¦+-----¦+--------+¦P¦P¦P¦T¦E¦W¦X¦P¦X¦N¦S¦P¦ ¦#¦PNcNAME LdT¦ SR¦ L¦P¦T¦LS¦R¦LS¦R¦¦E¦L¦N¦¦ESP¦SCBL¦¦R¦R¦R¦ ¦ ¦ ¦ ¦N¦ ¦T¦ ¦P¦ +-+-----------+---+--+-+-+--+-+--+-¦+-+-+-¦+---+----¦+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-¦ ¦1¦ 2 TONBO1 ¦ 77¦ 8¦3¦5¦28¦5¦26¦5¦¦3¦5¦5¦¦S/P¦ 4.7¦¦3¦3¦4¦5¦5¦5¦3¦6¦3¦6¦6¦5¦ ¦2¦ 3 STREE2 ¦ 80¦ 7¦4¦1¦15¦1¦ 9¦1¦¦2¦1¦1¦¦S/P¦ ¦¦1¦4¦1¦1¦2¦1¦5¦1¦5¦1¦1¦1¦ ¦3¦ 4 RANK 1 1¦ 77¦ 5¦5¦2¦24¦3¦13¦2¦¦1¦2¦3¦¦SUS¦ 4.6¦¦2¦3¦2¦6¦6¦4¦1¦4¦1¦4¦2¦2¦ ¦4¦ 6 STAND1 1¦ 75¦ 7¦2¦4¦22¦2¦15¦3¦¦5¦3¦2¦¦LAT¦ 6.6¦¦6¦1¦6¦2¦1¦2¦4¦3¦4¦2¦3¦3¦ ¦5¦ 7 JUSTI1 ¦ 77¦10¦1¦6¦24¦3¦21¦4¦¦6¦6¦6¦¦S/P¦ 4.9¦¦4¦2¦3¦3¦3¦3¦6¦2¦6¦3¦4¦6¦ ¦6¦ 9 PERFE3 ¦ 76¦ 5¦6¦3¦26¦4¦21¦4¦¦4¦4¦4¦¦SUS¦ 4.9¦¦5¦2¦5¦4¦4¦4¦2¦5¦2¦5¦5¦4¦ +----------------------------------++-+---++--------++-----------------------+ Code:
OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+ $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM THE V A L I D A T O R (VAL4) +------------------------------+ +------------------------+ +------+ +----+ ¦#¦PN NAME LdT¦SPR¦BAL¦ TOT-R¦ ¦EPR¦LPR¦CPR¦ TT¦FW¦HE¦FX¦ ¦V/DC-T¦ ¦SUPP¦ +-+-----------+---+---+--------¦ +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦ +------¦ +----¦ ¦1¦ 3 STREE2 ¦ 80¦ 6¦162.89-1¦ ¦ 1¦ 4¦ 1¦ 1¦ 1¦ 2¦ 4¦ ¦ 1¦ ¦ 1¦ +-+-----------+---+---+--------¦ +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦ +------¦ +----¦ ¦2¦ 4 RANK 1 1¦ 77¦ 5¦160.72-2¦ ¦ 2¦ 3¦ 2¦ 5¦ 4¦ 5¦ 1¦ ¦ 3¦ ¦ 2¦ +-+-----------+---+---+--------¦ +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦ +------¦ +----¦ ¦3¦ 6 STAND1 1¦ 75¦ 6¦160.25-4¦ ¦ 5¦ 1¦ 5¦ 2¦ 2¦ 1¦ 3¦ ¦ 1¦ ¦ 2¦ +-+-----------+---+---+--------¦ +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦ +------¦ +----¦ ¦4¦ 7 JUSTI1 ¦ 77¦ 8¦159.39-5¦ ¦ 3¦ 2¦ 3¦ 3¦ 3¦ 3¦ 5¦ ¦ 3¦ ¦ 3¦ +-+-----------+---+---+--------¦ +---+---+---+---+--+--+--¦ +------¦ +----¦ ¦5¦ 9 PERFE3 ¦ 76¦ 5¦160.55-3¦ ¦ 4¦ 2¦ 4¦ 4¦ 4¦ 4¦ 2¦ ¦ 4¦ ¦ 4¦ +------------------------------+ +------------------------+ +------+ +----+ Code:
OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+ $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4) +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ¦# PNcNAME L¦ 1F ¦ 2F ¦ 3F+TOTAL PACE ¦ +-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦ ¦1 3 STREE2¦ 4-> ¦ 1->¦ 1->¦ +-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦ ¦2 4 RANK 1¦ 1->¦ 5-> ¦ 3-> ¦ +-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦ ¦3 6 STAND1¦ 5-> ¦ 3-> ¦ 1->¦ +-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦ ¦4 7 JUSTI1¦ 2-> ¦ 4-> ¦ 3-> ¦ +-----------+--------------------¦---------------------+----------------------¦ ¦5 9 PERFE3¦ 3-> ¦ 2-> ¦ 4-> ¦ +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Code:
ENERGY GENERATOR (VAL4) +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ ¦#¦PNcNAME LdT¦ SR¦ Total R¦ HE R¦ Fx R¦ %Med¦E/EP R¦L/EP R¦ TPP R¦BAL¦ESP¦ +-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦ ¦1¦ 3 STREE2 ¦ 80¦162.89-1¦78.0-2¦53.5-4¦ 68.0¦91.2-1¦86.2-5¦89.6-1¦ 6¦S/P¦ +-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦ ¦2¦ 4 RANK 1 1¦ 77¦160.72-2¦74.1-5¦54.2-1¦ 67.4¦89.7-2¦87.0-3¦89.3-2¦ 5¦SUS¦ +-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦ ¦3¦ 6 STAND1 1¦ 75¦160.25-4¦78.5-1¦53.5-3¦ 67.0¦89.2-5¦87.6-1¦89.3-3¦ 6¦LAT¦ +-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦ ¦4¦ 7 JUSTI1 ¦ 77¦159.39-5¦77.5-3¦53.2-5¦ 67.9¦89.2-4¦86.7-4¦88.9-5¦ 8¦S/P¦ +-+-----------+---+--------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+---+---¦ ¦5¦ 9 PERFE3 ¦ 76¦160.55-3¦75.7-4¦53.6-2¦ 67.4¦89.6-3¦87.1-2¦89.2-4¦ 5¦SUS¦ +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Code:
OP0216 6 8.5 D SA 3+ $32,000 CP=$40,000 3:46PM LATE/EARLY DIFFERENCE GRAPH (VAL4) # PNcNAME LdT LATE|EARLY TOT-R _______________________________________________________________________________ 1 3 STREE2 -1.2 | 162.9-1 <| _______________________________________________________________________________ 2 4 RANK 1 1 -4.5 | 160.7-2 <---| _______________________________________________________________________________ 3 6 STAND1 1 -13.6 | 160.3-4 <------------| _______________________________________________________________________________ 4 7 JUSTI1 -8.0 | 159.4-5 <-------| _______________________________________________________________________________ 5 9 PERFE3 -9.0 | 160.6-3 <--------| _______________________________________________________________________________ EX-L V-L M-L |
02-18-2017, 07:37 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
I need more practice with the corollary screens and such. Thanks you and Richie for the feedback.
|
02-19-2017, 11:46 PM | #16 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Less
Quote:
Actually, less is better, With val4 you really should just look for corollaries support for your 4th or worse rated horses. Any horse in the top 3 vdc should be treated as equal. The final odds ,being the tie breakers Post more races, and I,m sure you will win Bill |
|
02-21-2017, 12:55 PM | #17 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
It is ONLY with practice that patterns evolve that you are going to look for. Do not LIMIT yourself to a single venue or you WILL be subject rampant sample error. Once you "get it" you will laugh out loud that it did not stick long before. In the earliest programs (Phase III) it was hard to understand the limited information and as things evolved which readouts were relevant for what distances surfaces etc.
This time of year I would suggest playing a combination of these, possibly two or three at a time: inner Aqu, Laurel, GP, Oaklawn, Tampa and Anita...Choose various ones, various days and NOTE their differences, likenesses. There are some courses I would stay very clear from: Hawthorne, Fair Grounds, and MOST of the night time thoroughbred tracks (chalk mixed with very cheap animals).... Accept for a FACT that some tracks just do not work well with any of these programs or point to such chalk that you would never support them financially. Beware fields of 6 or less and usually NOT worth the financial backing.
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
02-21-2017, 08:15 PM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
I disagree
There are advantages to focusing on 1 track and advantages to multi track wagering
Don't listen to what none winners say, The programs will do excellent If you follow directions and take your time. If you master pace line and contender selection first and foremost, You will win at any track and at any distance and surface Tim G (LT1) is doing great work documenting how RX and CSR and CR+ are doing at many tracks Bill Lyster has tons of similar data Bill"s in mostly from SA Del Mar Los AL Gulfstean and AQU. I lots of data from Parx, SA and Del Mar all distance all surfaces BL/BL and VDC and the Early- Late graph is what I track along with Trainers stuff cause I play Pick 4's and I have to play maiden , turf , marathons anything, But all my records are similar , because I pick my lines and contenders the same way. I recently went back to Doc's recommended spreadsheet ( Follow Up 82) I only missed 3 races (marked with a X) Please notice the distances The tracks were Parx OP SA AQU GP Pretty good I would say ! RDSS and Val 4 were the programs I used |
02-21-2017, 11:12 PM | #19 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
Your MAJOR reason for choosing ONE track over the other is PRICE..How do you get better prices? BIGGER FIELDS and bigger handles. This is a game of GAMBLING, not handicapping, and you need to rewarded for all that hard work in situations that will aid bigger prices.
Discover, through experimentation, where the program works better than others. Check with Brisnet AT A GLANCE to see how the favorites are doing (STAY away from places like Finger Lakes were over 39-41% of favorites win). Laurel has recently been putting our numbers that suggest wagering there. Why waste money on 8/5 shots? The national average of winners is around 33-36% so unless you get at LEAST 2/1 (0.33 probability) you are losing money. At any track, on any given day, one is lucky to find 3 to 4 betting opportunities so you must review a wide number of cards to find those. Stay away from MOST maidens with more that 3 or 4 first time starters....TOO many unknowns. ODDS should be foremost in your mind. WAIT to see how the board is trending. IF you have the same horse as everyone else, pass the contest, there are several coming up in the following few minutes. Don't mix up morning line with post time odds as usually the shorter priced MORNING LINE will be much lower come post time.
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 02-21-2017 at 11:14 PM. |
02-21-2017, 11:24 PM | #20 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
|
EVERY program from HSH, Black Magic, HTR, JCapper and a few others will usually isolate the top 5.
that is the EASY PART of the game....hundreds can do that. Having an understanding and approach to BETTING is the lost art in this game. All the greats have said the same thing about the game: Cramer, Howard Sartin, Dave Schwartz, Dick Mitchell, Brohamer, Dr. William Quirin........If you do not look for value, in the long run you will LOSE. West coast guru (FR) who writes the tip sheet at Hasting's (a mathematician by training) has lamented to me often; "They teach this game completely BACKWARDS, One should have a handle on probability and value LONG before they even begin to learn how to handicap them." A much better record to discover is how much return you get on your wagered dollar
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Woodbine notes Saturday 4/30 | Bill V. | Pace Makes the Race / TPR | 66 | 05-21-2016 09:00 AM |
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST | Ted Craven | August Contest | 1 | 07-24-2012 10:09 PM |
Del Mar Race 9 | Bill V. | General Discussion | 2 | 07-23-2012 09:40 PM |
MatchUP intuition is "Primary", MatchUP mathematics is "Corollary"/Secondary | VoodooFan | Matchup Discussion | 41 | 02-27-2011 03:05 PM |
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles | Ted Craven | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 19 | 03-22-2010 06:06 PM |