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Old 02-22-2017, 09:17 AM   #21
Mitch44
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Bill V. I agree with you 100%. I can play any track ,any surface and any distance. I can do that for two reasons1) I use a consistent approach,(2) I have found what factors are
universal or applicable to all tracks through record keeping testing etc.

Players biggest problems are an inconsistent approach and being lazy wanting others to give them something for free. When one does the work themselves they obtain a greater appreciation for knowledge gained to include the stuff that doesn't pan out.

Learn from the experts and that's the rub. The forerunners of today such as Sartin, Bradshaw and Brohamer are easy. Others can speak eloquently while using big words but can't actually execute it. In other word talk a good game but never post picks etc. In anything it's all about demonstrated performance. It's the old "buyer beware" or in this case newbie beware. Choose wisely and you'll be successful.

While I agree that money management is a big part of being successful it's all for nothing if you can't get the right horses.

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Old 02-22-2017, 03:00 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Bill V. I agree with you 100%. I can play any track ,any surface and any distance. I can do that for two reasons1) I use a consistent approach,(2) I have found what factors are
universal or applicable to all tracks through record keeping testing etc.

While I agree that money management is a big part of being successful it's all for nothing if you can't get the right horses.

Mitch44
So true!
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Old 02-22-2017, 06:54 PM   #23
Tim Y
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Factors MAY be universal but their applications or rank of importance varies WIDLY
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Old 02-22-2017, 07:34 PM   #24
Bill V.
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No

No Tim you are misleading , The final factors are all well tested and consistent across
all tracks distances and surfaces,

What makes the readout "seem " inconsistent , is really the fault of the user who does not pick and enter proper contenders and appropriate pace lines consistently
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Old 02-22-2017, 07:50 PM   #25
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Yes Bill so true. Their always zigging and zagging.
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Old 02-22-2017, 10:11 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
No Tim you are misleading , The final factors are all well tested and consistent across
all tracks distances and surfaces,
You are telling me that factors at Rillito Fairmont and Arlington have the same relative significance at GGF or Pimlico?..Consistent? far from them when biases trump them into non-contributory status.

NOT my experience whatsoever... I have used the methodology at over 38 venues and found that NOT to be the case. Handicapping Assinboia for example is such an OUTLlER, along with Fair Grounds that one has to almost learn things anew.

NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING in life is ONE size fits all. That is overly simplistic and simply not true.
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Old 02-22-2017, 10:18 PM   #27
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Also using a line from a SLOW track does not covert well to a
fast one ans vice versa. Fair Grounds or Mahowning Downs to other courses.

Blistering fast Parx lines fail all the time when predicted to be the top contenders in New York. I used to have to be very careful in translating old Longacres lines to the bull ring at Hastings....they transferred too fast.

These readings vary and one has to be aware of how much and when.
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Old 02-23-2017, 12:29 AM   #28
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Yes

Yes it does not matter what the track , distance or surface ,as long as you enter appropriate pace lines ,
You are just being lazy, Tim
You think you know better than the program, you over analize the readouts and you don't trust the adjustments.
You the user determine the success or lack there of because you decide what garbage you put into the program , if you enter a slow line that is not adjusted fast enough or too fast, but there is a better line you could have used , then its you Tim that will lose

Look at Parx Race 1 yesterday is an example of this, every horse that ran at Parx on 1/10/17 is getting too fast of a adjustment ,

This is a data provider issue,

THIS makes every pace line from 1/10/17 from Parx a non representative pace line If you are handicapping and you realize this you must use a different pace line But every pace line from Parx is not adjusted incorrectly, You
Tim have to learn what is the best line to use ,or not



It does not matter ,minor track or the Breeders Cup You determine the success
and rankings of the program Nobody else ,

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Old 02-23-2017, 08:42 AM   #29
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Your correct Bill V. in that one has to trust the adjustments. They have been tested by thousands of races. This game also is about putting the percentages on your side in many of your decisions. Such as a horse shipping from to Park to New York as Tim Y states ,sure there will be some loses but percentage wise you'll win more of them than you'll lose. The adjustments will in the majority of cases tell you whether the shipper is a contender or not.
Any horse can ship to any track and win if properly placed as to class etc. But then again Tim Y doesn't believe in class which is a tried and true handicapping factor since this game began. Horses do ship from Park to NY tracks and win. Their trainers are more attuned to the class factor and proper placement as are most trainers that have good win % records.

My advice is if you know a particular track, distance ,surface etc. gives you problems it's rooted in your handicapping procedures. And until you find the root cause I would recommend avoiding those situation. I go into them with a positive attitude therefore that stuff doesn't effect my decisions.

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Old 02-23-2017, 09:51 AM   #30
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Thanks Mitch

What Tim has not seen here is exactly why he is lost,
He probably never took Doc ' s advice and just made his recommended spreadsheet
If he had read the follow up he would know that less is more, and to limit his factors to no more than 6.

Doc used
Primary line score
Sup line score
Total energy
VDC
BL/BL
E/ L
The only other thing he recorded was the ml and final odds
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